Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Tyler Cowen interviews political scientist Eric Kaufmann about demographic change, religion, fertility, and populism. Kaufmann argues that immigration and ethnic identity—not class alone—drive much Western populism, while high-fertility religious groups and assimilation patterns will shape future politics in Europe and North America. The conversation also covers Northern Ireland, Switzerland, Japan, India, and the cultural politics of whiteness and modernism.

Main Topics: Immigration, identity, and populist politics (Priority: 5/5): Kaufmann argues that anti-immigration sentiment best explains Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, and related populist right surges, more than economic distress or generic anti-elite attitudes. He emphasizes cultural conflict and open-vs-closed psychological dispositions. Demography, religiosity, and fertility (Priority: 5/5): A major theme is the relationship between religiosity and birth rates. Kaufmann argues that religious commitment is one of the strongest predictors of fertility worldwide and may make future populations more religious unless secularization and fertility decline converge. Assimilation and intermarriage across ethnic and religious lines (Priority: 5/5): The discussion repeatedly returns to intermarriage as the main mechanism of assimilation, including among Muslims in Europe, Turks and Syrians in Germany, Pakistani Americans, and Latino Americans. Northern Ireland, Orangeism, and symbolic politics (Priority: 4/5): Kaufmann reflects on Northern Irish sectarianism, the Orange Order, parading, and how symbolic identity continues to structure politics even without the violence and formal exclusion of the past. National cohesion in Switzerland, India, and Japan (Priority: 3/5): These cases are used to show how cross-cutting cleavages, local homogeneity, and cultural structure can sustain national identity despite diversity, while Japan is discussed as a low-fertility, semi-secular, culturally cohesive society. Whiteness, cultural legitimacy, and political discourse (Priority: 4/5): Kaufmann defends discussing whiteness as an ethnic identity without equating it to racism, warning that suppression of identity talk can drive it underground and intensify extremist conspiracy thinking. Culture, modernism, and civic decline (Priority: 3/5): The interview closes on aesthetics and social cohesion, with Kaufmann arguing that modernist novelty has become overdominant, while Tocquevillian associational life has weakened relative to earlier eras.

Key Arguments: Immigration concerns are the strongest predictor of populist right voting; class and generic anti-elite sentiment explain much less. Ethnic attachment is not the same as hostility toward out-groups; legitimizing moderate majority identity can be safer than suppressing it. Religiosity is among the strongest global predictors of fertility, especially in developed countries. High-fertility, high-retention groups such as Amish, Mormons, and ultra-Orthodox Jews may grow disproportionately unless social or political constraints intervene. Intermarriage is the most important long-run pathway of assimilation for Muslims, Turks, Syrians, and Latinos. Authoritarian systems can suppress demographic expansion of religious groups, while liberal democracies may inadvertently enable it. Northern Ireland’s conflict is now mostly symbolic; parading remains a power-laden identity ritual even after overt discrimination has faded. Switzerland’s cohesion comes from cross-cutting cleavages and local homogeneity rather than from pure multicultural integration. Modernist culture has overvalued novelty and weakened respect for continuity and tradition. Internet effects on politics are overstated; immigration and multiculturalism matter more than technology in explaining populism.

Data Points: Northern Ireland economy share that is government: about 85% - Kaufmann says this limits private-sector dynamism despite the region’s potential Intermarriage across Catholic-Protestant lines in Northern Ireland: a few percent - Used to illustrate extremely low sectarian mixing Amish population in the U.S. in 1900: about 5,000 - Kaufmann contrasts this with current Amish growth Amish population in the U.S. כיום/currently: probably 300,000 - Supports his point about exponential growth Projected Amish population in the 2200s (if growth continued): 300 million - Illustrative projection to show the implications of high fertility Mormon population in America: about 6 million - Compared with Amish population size Amish total fertility rate: 5.3 - Used as evidence of very high fertility Religious women and fertility: above replacement in almost no country they are below replacement - Kaufmann argues committed religious women nearly always have high fertility Muslim share of Western Europe (projection): 20-25% at the most - Kaufmann rejects claims of a Muslim majority in Europe French Algerian men outmarriage rate: almost 50% - Cited as a major assimilation pathway in France Franco-Algerian outmarriage rate overall: 40-50% - Supports the argument that Algerians in France assimilate relatively strongly Moroccan outmarriage rate in France: about 40% - Used as another example of assimilation via intermarriage Pakistani American education/income: high per-capita incomes and high rates of education - Evidence that Pakistani Americans are a successful immigrant group American women identifying as white from mixed Mexican ancestry: 60% - Kaufmann says people with at least one Mexican grandparent often identify as white Jewish secular fertility in Israel: 2.2 children per woman - Used to show secular fertility can be relatively high when influenced by religious norms Iran fertility decline under religious authorities: from 6 to 1.8 per woman - Example of religious leaders endorsing family planning and rapid fertility decline Percentage of Muslim population in immigrating flows (average): 20-25% - Used to argue Europe’s immigration flows are not Muslim-majority First-grade Jewish school population share of ultra-Orthodox in Israel: past a third - Illustrates rapid demographic rise of high-fertility religious groups Canada by-election result for People's Party: 11% - Evidence of rising populist sentiment in English Canada

Pivotal Quotes: "Attachment to your own group is not the same as hating an out group." — Eric Kaufmann: On ethnic identity, whiteness, and why majority attachment should not automatically be treated as racism "I think the most plausible scenario is that... somehow the Irish Republic has to find a way to reassure them." — Eric Kaufmann: On Irish reunification and the need to win over Northern Irish Unionists symbolically "I think the theology can be kind of tweaked to give you any interpretation so that the Christians and Jews could come up with something similar in a pinch." — Eric Kaufmann: On whether Islam uniquely accommodates fertility reduction through religious reasoning

Implications: The episode suggests that future politics will increasingly hinge on demography, identity legitimacy, and intermarriage rather than economics alone. It also implies that religiously organized populations may gain influence unless secular societies find new forms of cohesion and family support.