Evan Vanderveer (Vanshap Capital): MELI, KSPI, and NU

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Evan Vanderveer of Vanshap Capital explained his firm’s evolution from deep-value investing in out-of-favor ex-U.S. markets to a concentrated portfolio of founder-led “customer fanatic” businesses. He then made the case for Mercado Libre, Kaspi, and Nubank as platform compounders with strong user engagement, long runways, and valuation disconnects driven by temporary margin pressure, geopolitical risk, and market skepticism.

Main Topics: Vanshap Capital’s evolution and philosophy (Priority: 5/5): The firm began in 2012 as an international deep-value investor, inspired by Templeton-style contrarianism, and later shifted toward higher-quality businesses with exceptional customer focus and founder control. How Vanshap identifies “customer fanatics” (Priority: 5/5): Vanderveer said the strategy centers on founder-controlled companies that obsess over customer satisfaction, often reflected in NPS, retention, and willingness to kill underperforming products. Mercado Libre: growth versus margin compression (Priority: 5/5): Mercado Libre was framed as an underappreciated multi-vertical platform (e-commerce, payments, logistics, credit) whose stock has lagged despite strong operating growth due to reinvestment and margin pressure. Kaspi: Kazakhstan platform with expanding optionality (Priority: 5/5): Kaspi was described as a fintech/e-commerce super app with dominant domestic market share, strong customer obsession, and expansion into Turkey as a longer-term growth option. Nubank: digital bank scale and efficiency (Priority: 4/5): Nubank was presented as a hyper-efficient, founder-led digital bank with massive user reach in Brazil, rapid Mexico expansion, and an early U.S. option value story. Process, concentration, and bias management (Priority: 4/5): With only six holdings and low turnover, the firm spends substantial time on field research and continuous underwriting, while trying to avoid anchoring and sunk-cost bias.

Key Arguments: Founder control and customer obsession are better predictive lenses than cheapness alone for finding long-term compounders. A concentrated portfolio is necessary because truly exceptional customer fanatic businesses are rare globally. Mercado Libre’s weak stock performance is more about temporary margin compression and competition fears than business deterioration. Kaspi’s valuation reflects Kazakhstan and geopolitical skepticism, not the underlying strength of its platform and customer retention. Nubank’s scale, efficiency, and customer NPS give it room to compound despite banking-sector concerns. On-the-ground research, local networks, and employee/customer observation are critical because these qualities are hard to screen quantitatively. Platform businesses can expand by adding services once they control user attention and trust, creating multiple monetization layers.

Data Points: Firm inception: 2012 - Vanshap Capital was founded in April 2012. Portfolio size: 6 holdings - Vanderveer said the fund is highly concentrated with only six holdings. Mercado Libre market cap: ~$100 billion - He described Mercado Libre as a very large public company by market capitalization. Mercado Libre starting valuation: ~6x earnings - He said Vanshap initially bought Mercado Libre at about six times earnings. Mercado Libre EV/EBIT: Lowest ever since public - He said the stock is currently at the lowest EV/EBIT multiple in its public history. Mercado Libre GMV growth: +51% - From the shared chart covering July 2024 to present. Mercado Libre active buyers growth: +57% - From the shared chart covering July 2024 to present. Mercado Libre revenue growth: +96% - From the shared chart covering July 2024 to present. Mercado Libre fintech monthly actives growth: +113% - From the shared chart covering July 2024 to present. Mercado Libre total payment volume growth: +180% - From the shared chart covering July 2024 to present. Kaspi forward EV/Earnings: ~6x - He cited Kaspi’s forward multiple as very low relative to quality and growth. Kaspi return on equity: ~63% - He noted extremely high ROE for Kaspi. Kaspi dividend yield: ~10% - He said Kaspi pays out roughly half its earnings as dividends. Kaspi market share in e-commerce: ~60% - He described Kaspi as dominant in Kazakhstan e-commerce. Kaspi ownership in Turkey acquisition: ~65% to 85% - He said Kaspi increased its stake in Hepsiburada from roughly 65% to 85%. Kazakhstan interest rates peak: ~18% - Used to explain slower lending growth at Kaspi. Nubank efficiency ratio: ~18% - He contrasted Nubank’s efficiency with traditional Brazilian banks. Traditional Brazilian banks efficiency ratio: ~40% to 60% - Used as a benchmark to show Nubank’s operating leverage. Nubank customer count: Largest digital bank in the world by customer count - He framed Nubank as the largest digital bank globally by users. Nubank U.S. impact on efficiency ratio: ~1% hit - He said the U.S. expansion would only modestly affect efficiency. Nubank shareholder ownership: ~20% by David Velez - He noted strong founder ownership alignment. Nubank Mexico NPS: 96/100 - He said one product in Mexico may have the highest NPS in the world. Short report timing: Post-Caspi public listing / sentiment hit - He referenced a short report that hurt Kaspi sentiment. Market cap concern on Kaspi: $15 billion - He noted skepticism about a Kazakhstan company reaching that size.

Pivotal Quotes: "“We call it Vanshap 2.0, which is focused on customer fanatics.”" — Evan Vanderveer: He described the firm’s post-2020 strategy shift from cheap stocks to higher-quality, founder-led compounders. "“There is no one screen.”" — Evan Vanderveer: He explained that customer fanatic businesses cannot be found with a simple quantitative filter and require deep qualitative work. "“It’s not like that knowledge vaporizes.”" — Evan Vanderveer: He was describing how prior deep diligence on a company continues to inform future underwriting even after a sale.

Implications: Listeners should take away that exceptional businesses in overlooked geographies can still be found through qualitative, founder-focused research. The discussion highlights how platform economics, reinvestment cycles, and valuation dislocations can create long-term opportunity.