Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford
Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford

From Drilled: The Carbon Gold Rush

We usually bring you failures of the past, but today we're sharing an episode from someone who uncovers failures as they happen. Amy Westervelt is an award-winning investigative climate journalist and the host of Drilled, a true-crime climate change podcast exposing how corporate corruption and

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Bruce Rastetter Guest

Topics Discussed

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode introduces Amy Westervelt’s investigation into how carbon capture, ethanol, and sustainable aviation fuel are being marketed as climate solutions while benefiting agribusiness and oil interests. It centers on Bruce Rastetter and partners in Iowa and Brazil, tracing how a controversial carbon pipeline and Brazilian industrial agriculture became linked through politics, subsidies, and public-relations framing.

Main Topics: Carbon capture as a climate solution narrative (Priority: 5/5): The episode opens with a Brazilian delegation visiting North Dakota to observe ethanol-linked carbon capture, presented as a way to reduce emissions and create sustainable aviation fuel markets, despite the project’s ties to enhanced oil recovery and industrial agriculture. Bruce Rastetter and Summit Carbon Solutions (Priority: 5/5): Bruce Rastetter, an influential Iowa agribusiness figure, co-founded Summit Carbon Solutions and is pushing a Midwest pipeline that would connect dozens of ethanol plants. The project faces major political, legal, and public opposition. Public backlash across the political spectrum (Priority: 4/5): The carbon pipeline has become unusually unpopular, uniting opponents from both the far left and far right, largely because of land, water, property rights, and environmental concerns. Brazil’s agribusiness frontier and Lucas do Rio Verde (Priority: 4/5): The story moves to Mato Grosso, where Lucas do Rio Verde symbolizes state-built agribusiness expansion, land conversion, and infrastructure designed to serve monoculture farming and corporate growth. How Rastetter expanded into Brazil (Priority: 5/5): The episode explores competing accounts of how Rastetter got involved in Brazil: through business ties, Governor Terry Branstad, and intermediary consultants who connected him with the Franz brothers and local agricultural opportunities. Rebranding industrial agriculture as sustainability (Priority: 5/5): A major theme is the rebranding of corn ethanol, carbon capture, and aviation fuel as green innovation, even though critics argue the economics depend heavily on subsidies and disguise the environmental harms of industrial agriculture.

Key Arguments: Corn ethanol is being portrayed as green, but the episode argues its carbon footprint remains close to fossil fuels and it relies on heavy land, water, fertilizer, and pesticide use. Carbon capture attached to ethanol is framed as a business strategy to open new markets for corn, not primarily as a climate fix. The Summit pipeline’s backlash shows that projects sold as climate solutions can become politically toxic when they threaten landowners and local communities. Brazilian agribusiness growth in Mato Grosso was historically built through state-directed colonization and displacement, making current “sustainable” rhetoric part of a longer pattern of frontier expansion. Rastetter’s influence spans both U.S. and Brazilian agribusiness, suggesting the same networks and incentives are shaping climate-policy narratives in both countries. Public institutions such as hospitals can be used for legitimacy and image management, helping agribusiness elites present themselves as community benefactors.

Data Points: Brazilian delegation visit: early September 2025 - Officials traveled to North Dakota to observe carbon-capture ethanol technology. Midwest Carbon Express Project: dozens of ethanol plants - Summit Carbon Solutions’ proposed pipeline would connect multiple plants across the upper Midwest. Mato Grosso land use: almost exactly half agriculture and half Amazon rainforest - The state is described as split between farm expansion and remaining forest. Lucas do Rio Verde population: more than 95,000 inhabitants - Describing the size of the agribusiness city in Mato Grosso. Grain production: more than 2 million tons per year - Lucas do Rio Verde’s annual agricultural output. Hospital ward funding: 5 million hospitals - The transcript references a renovated hospital and maternity ward, though the wording is garbled in the source audio/transcript. Land requirement comparison: around 30 times as much land as solar - Used to criticize corn ethanol’s land intensity compared with solar energy. Pipeline opposition coalition: far-left and far-right populists - The pipeline allegedly united groups across the political spectrum in opposition. Bruce Rastetter timeline: 2011 - Corey Melby says Rastetter visited Mato Grosso for a land tour in 2011. Project delay: years behind schedule - Summit’s pipeline is described as delayed and facing legal and political roadblocks. Corporate scale: upwards of a billion dollars - Corey Melby says clients of his have invested over a billion dollars in Brazil-related agribusiness.

Pivotal Quotes: "This is a story about how the ethanol kingpin of Iowa became the king of corn in Brazil." — Amy Westervelt: Framing the season’s central narrative about Rastetter’s cross-border agribusiness influence. "Without continuing to attain new markets, the ethanol industry is in jeopardy." — Bruce Rastetter: Explaining the industry logic behind carbon capture and new fuel markets. "The town is a fiction, designed and built by the government to impose development on this region." — Felipe Sabrina: Describing Lucas do Rio Verde as a planned agribusiness settlement rather than an organic city.

Implications: The episode suggests climate policy can be captured by agribusiness and oil interests, turning subsidies and sustainability language into profit tools. Listeners should watch how “green” infrastructure can mask land grabs, political influence, and environmental harm.

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About Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford

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