Globalization is ending. What’s next? | Mike O’Sullivan

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Mike O’Sullivan argues that the era of globalization that accelerated after the Cold War is ending. While it lifted billions out of poverty and expanded democracy, its gains were uneven, fueling inequality, debt, nationalism, and weak crisis coordination during COVID-19. He predicts a fragmented, values-based world order shaped by rival models from the U.S., China, Europe, and agile smaller states.

Main Topics: The rise and decline of globalization: The talk frames globalization as a second wave that began in the early 1990s, delivering major economic and social gains but now reaching its limits due to mismanagement and backlash. Unequal distribution of globalization’s benefits: O’Sullivan emphasizes that globalization’s rewards were not shared evenly, contributing to extreme wealth inequality, political resentment, and the perception that the system works against ordinary people. COVID-19 as a stress test for the global order: The pandemic exposed the fragility of international cooperation, with countries competing for supplies and failing to mount a unified global response. A new world order based on values, not geography: He argues that future alliances will form around shared values and policy priorities rather than a single global system, producing a more fragmented but potentially more purposeful order. Competing models: U.S., China, and Europe: The internet and broader governance are presented as examples of three distinct value systems: U.S. innovation and markets, China’s state control, and Europe’s privacy/data protection focus. The role of small states and emerging economies: He highlights small countries and fast-growing economies as increasingly important actors that can choose models, form new coalitions, and shape future institutions. Europe’s identity and internal value tensions: Europe is portrayed as moving from geography-based integration toward a values-based union, while confronting internal challenges from member states that diverge on democracy and rule of law.

Key Arguments: Globalization produced real gains, including poverty reduction, higher wealth, improved democracy, and better outcomes for women, but those gains were unevenly distributed. High inequality and record debt show that globalization’s benefits were mismanaged rather than broadly shared. The 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic reveal that policymakers have mostly contained problems instead of solving them. The pandemic showed the collapse of global coordination: countries competed for masks, hacked vaccine programs, and failed to create a shared recovery plan. The next era will be less about one connected global system and more about rival regional/value-based systems. The internet illustrates this fragmentation: the U.S., China, and Europe each approach it through different values and priorities. Small countries can collaborate around shared values such as well-being, sustainability, and governance quality rather than size or geography. Europe must define and defend its values more clearly, especially regarding democracy, rule of law, women’s rights, and LGBT rights. China’s system is built on a bargain of order and prosperity in exchange for liberty, but it is vulnerable to prolonged unemployment. Emerging economies in Africa, Asia, and Latin America will have more agency to choose models and alliances instead of following IMF-style prescriptions.

Data Points: Wealth increase in Vietnam and Bangladesh: over 6x in 20 years - Used to illustrate how globalization lifted wealth in some developing countries. Global debt to GDP: at levels not seen since the Napoleonic Wars, 200 years ago - Presented as evidence of globalization’s mismanagement and rising indebtedness. EU expansion: 13 new members since 2004 - Shows Europe’s eastward growth during the globalization era. Google market share in China: 30% to close to 0% - Example of the internet becoming fragmented into separate regional systems. Countries in the well-being economy governments: 3 - Scotland, Iceland, and New Zealand are cited as collaborating around well-being rather than GDP alone. Globalization era start: early 1990s - Marks the beginning of the second wave of globalization after the fall of communism. Countries added to EU: 13 - Highlights the scale of European integration during globalization.

Pivotal Quotes: "We are at the end of globalization." — Mike O’Sullivan: Opening thesis of the talk, signaling the end of the post-Cold War global order. "The new world order will be defined by rival, distinct and different ways of doing things, and ultimately collaboration based on values." — Mike O’Sullivan: Core prediction about how future international relations will be organized. "The age of condescension is now over." — Mike O’Sullivan: Describes how emerging economies will no longer simply follow prescriptions from major powers or institutions.

Implications: Expect more fragmented trade, tech, and diplomacy, with alliances built around shared values and interests. Smaller and emerging economies may gain influence by choosing their own models and partnerships.