Has Trump Achieved a Lot Less Than It Seems?

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Ezra Klein and Yuval Levin assess Trump’s second-term first year as highly active but less transformative than it appears. They argue Trump governs through narrow, high-visibility deals and leverage rather than durable legislation or regulation, with immigration and tariffs as major exceptions. The conversation also examines institutional intimidation, restrained checks from courts and Congress, and the right’s cultural shift under Trump.

Main Topics: Activity vs. durable change (Priority: 5/5): The hosts distinguish between intense news-cycle action and the smaller amount of lasting policy change. Levin argues Trump’s administration creates the impression of sweeping transformation, but much of it does not become stable law or practice. Retail dealmaking as a governing style (Priority: 5/5): Trump is described as governing 'one by one' through targeted deals with universities, companies, and institutions rather than through wholesale policymaking, producing visible but narrow results. Immigration and tariffs as exceptions (Priority: 5/5): Levin says immigration and trade/tariffs are the main areas where Trump has used more traditional executive tools and achieved more durable change, especially at the border. Institutional intimidation and leverage (Priority: 4/5): The administration uses federal power to pressure agencies, universities, prosecutors, and companies, reshaping behavior even when formal policy change is limited. Limits imposed by Congress and courts (Priority: 4/5): Despite fears of constitutional crisis, Congress and the judiciary have constrained the administration more than expected, including through spending, nominations, and adverse court rulings. The right’s transformation under Trump (Priority: 4/5): Levin warns that younger conservatives are being shaped by Trump-era politics toward harder-edged, more populist, less constitutionalist instincts, with some fringe openness to racism and antisemitism.

Key Arguments: The administration has produced lots of action and spectacle, but relatively little durable policy change because it has avoided broad legislation and traditional rulemaking. Federal spending largely stayed at prior levels; Doge’s efforts did not materially reduce outlays because Congress maintained appropriations and the government operated under continuing resolutions. NIH is a notable exception: spending was initially held back, then surged late in the year, suggesting a decision to avoid an impoundment fight and spend appropriated funds by year-end. Trump’s governing style is 'retail' rather than 'wholesale'—focused on newsworthy, one-off interventions instead of broad administrative systems. Universities, drug companies, and firms like NVIDIA are pressured into individualized deals that create compliance and optics without necessarily changing underlying power structures. Immigration is the clearest area of substantive change because the administration used legislation, regulation, and enforcement together, making border changes more durable. Tariffs also represent genuine change, but their durability is uncertain because they depend on contested presidential powers and pending Supreme Court review. Federal law enforcement has been bent toward the president’s grudges and priorities, creating intimidation even when the president may not directly know every action. Courts and the Senate have checked the administration meaningfully: many cases have been lost, and nominations are being blocked or withdrawn. The right is changing culturally: younger conservatives are less anchored in constitutionalism or market liberalism and more animated by fear, resentment, and anti-left politics.

Data Points: Federal spending change: 4% more in 2025 than 2024 - Levin says overall federal spending increased despite Doge and early-year spending cuts because appropriations stayed largely intact. Legislation signed: Fewer than any president in the modern era - Levin argues Trump signed unusually little legislation for a first year, despite the volume of apparent activity. Regulatory pace: Slower than the first year of Biden, Obama, Bush, or Clinton - Levin says economically significant rulemaking has lagged previous administrations. NIH spending: 100% of appropriated money spent by year end - After being far behind in the first half of 2025, NIH spending accelerated sharply to avoid an impoundment confrontation. Federal cases filed: 573 - Levin cites the number of federal cases filed against the administration during the year. Cases still in process: About 230 - A portion of the litigation remains unresolved. Administration loss rate in court: 57% - Of decided cases, Levin says the administration lost 57 percent. Supreme Court appeals: About 25 cases - Levin says the administration appealed only a small subset of losses, choosing cases it expected to win. Presidential nominations withdrawn: 54 - Levin cites Senate data showing a high number of withdrawn nominations, indicating resistance to the administration. Electoral support: About 49% down to 40% - Levin says Trump started with a coalition around 49% and has spent the year reducing support rather than broadening it.

Pivotal Quotes: "There’s more said than done." — Ezra Klein: Klein summarizes the gap between Trump-era rhetoric and the amount of lasting governance actually achieved. "Trump governs retail rather than wholesale." — Yuval Levin: Levin’s key framing for Trump’s one-by-one, deal-based style of using executive power. "What the president has done, though, is use the power of the executive as a way of exercising leverage to drive behavioral change." — Yuval Levin: Levin explains how the administration pressures institutions even without broad policy enactment.

Implications: Trump’s second term may leave fewer durable policy changes than the headlines suggest, but it is normalizing a more coercive, personalized presidency and weakening trust in institutions. Immigration, tariffs, and right-wing culture may be the most lasting effects.