Hollywood Was Cooked Before AI, and Now It's Only Getting Worse

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode is a live Odd Lots conversation with writer/producer Hayes Davenport about Hollywood’s downturn, focusing on falling LA shoot days, the shift of production to cheaper markets, shrinking writers’ rooms, and the looming role of AI. Davenport argues Hollywood is still alive but structurally weakened: production has halved from its peak, local spillovers are hurting restaurants and nightlife, and comedy is especially vulnerable while horror and prestige solo-authored shows are better positioned.

Main Topics: Hollywood production decline in Los Angeles: Davenport walks through the collapse in LA shoot days from the mid-2010s peak through COVID, the strikes, and the continuing post-strike weakness, arguing the city is seeing a real production contraction rather than a temporary slowdown. Tax incentives and production migration: The discussion explains how film and TV work has shifted to places like North Carolina, South Carolina, Vancouver, Dublin, and New Jersey because tax breaks and labor costs make them cheaper than LA. Changing writers’ rooms and TV economics: The episode contrasts older, large comedy writers’ rooms with today’s smaller teams and solo-written prestige series, showing how production economics are reshaping creative collaboration. AI as a threat to writers and below-the-line jobs: Davenport says AI is already useful for search and outlines, but is not yet replacing writers’ rooms; however, it poses a major risk to production-side labor and the local LA economy. Hollywood’s spillover effect on LA’s broader economy: The conversation emphasizes that Hollywood supports restaurants, tourism, nightlife, and other local businesses, so declining shoot days have broad ripple effects beyond entertainment employment. Cultural fragmentation and the end of monoculture: The hosts and Davenport discuss how fewer shared stars and fewer universally watched shows have weakened the old Hollywood model, while library content and memes now compete with new productions. Comedy, horror, and the future of content creation: Davenport argues comedy is harder for AI and harder to monetize, while horror is thriving because it offers studios a commercially viable mid-budget model; that makes horror comparatively resilient.

Key Arguments: LA production has fallen sharply, with shoot days now roughly half of their 2016 peak, indicating a structural contraction rather than a cyclical dip. Streaming initially expanded production and writers’ rooms, but network and cable decline plus later strikes and COVID reversed that growth. Tax incentives and labor costs are driving production out of LA to states and countries that can offer cheaper shoots. Smaller writers’ rooms and solo-authored shows are becoming more common because they reduce costs, even though they are not always creatively suited to the format. AI is most threatening to below-the-line production jobs and may eventually help generate outlines, but it has not yet replaced writers’ rooms. Hollywood’s decline affects the wider LA economy through reduced spending at restaurants, local vendors, tourism, and nightlife. Comedy is under economic pressure, while horror is thriving because it can be made at lower budgets with high upside potential. Library content remains valuable, but new shows must now compete not just with current programming but with the entire archive of existing entertainment.

Data Points: LA shoot days peak: 40,000 - Shoot days in Los Angeles reached a high in 2016. LA shoot days before pandemic: ~37,000 - Shoot days leveled off around this level by 2019 before COVID. LA shoot days after strikes: 25,000 - Shoot days fell after the 2023 strikes. LA shoot days following year: 23,000 - The next year’s expected recovery did not materialize. Latest LA shoot days cited: under 20,000 - Shoot days fell again, described as about half the 2016 level. Writers’ Guild membership growth: grew a lot in the late 2010s - Membership expanded as streaming brought in more people while former cable workers remained members. Family Guy writers room size: 30 writers - Davenport said Family Guy had about 30 writers when he worked there. Family Guy mini room example: 7 writers - He described a mini room that used to be considered large by some standards. City Hall tenure: 2021 to 2024 - Davenport worked in City Hall during much of the decline and strikes.

Pivotal Quotes: "Shoot days fall again to under 20,000. So that is half of what it was in 2016." — Hayes Davenport: He summarizes the severity of the LA production decline. "The genre that is the most alive in Hollywood right now is horror." — Hayes Davenport: He explains why horror is outperforming comedy in the current market. "You can't really scare us. No, this is the best thing. This is what I always say about journalism, too." — Hayes Davenport: He argues that entertainment and journalism are already competing with vast amounts of free, algorithmically distributed content, limiting AI’s disruptive power.

Implications: Listeners should expect a smaller, more geographically dispersed Hollywood, with pressure on LA jobs and local businesses. Comedy and below-the-line work are most exposed, while horror, libraries, and cost-efficient formats look stronger.