How Biden’s Middle East Policy Fell Apart

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Ezra Klein and Frank Foer assess a year of war after October 7th as a story of competing victories and profound American failure. Foer argues Hamas and Netanyahu each secured parts of their aims, while the U.S. failed to stop regional escalation, secure hostages, or advance a viable political endgame for Gaza and the Palestinians.

Main Topics: The pre-October 7 Saudi-Israel normalization track (Priority: 5/5): Foer explains the Biden administration’s effort to broker a Saudi-Israel deal tied to a U.S. defense pact and a vague Palestinian-state framework, and why Hamas may have seen this as a threat to its cause. October 7 and the immediate regional response (Priority: 5/5): The conversation reconstructs the attack, the Biden administration’s shock, Hezbollah’s limited and initially uncoordinated response, and Iran’s backchannel signaling against broader escalation. Why the Gaza war expanded without a clear endgame (Priority: 5/5): They discuss Israel’s improvised invasion plans, shifting war aims, rising civilian harm, and the absence of any credible 'day after' plan for governing Gaza. America’s leverage, limits, and failure (Priority: 5/5): Foer argues the Biden administration pursued earnest diplomacy but never imposed decisive constraints on Israel, making the U.S. appear weak while failing to shape outcomes. Ceasefire and hostage negotiations (Priority: 4/5): The episode reviews repeated near-deals, Netanyahu’s added conditions, Hamas’s shifting demands, and the administration’s inability to force a durable agreement. The Lebanon/Iran front and deterrence (Priority: 4/5): The discussion turns to Hezbollah, Israeli strikes in Lebanon, U.S. military support, and whether Washington can or should stop Israel from striking Iran directly. Biden, Harris, and Trump as future policy variables (Priority: 3/5): Foer contrasts Biden’s realism and caution, Harris’s slightly more critical posture, and Trump’s unpredictability as possible influences on the next phase of the conflict.

Key Arguments: Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar likely aimed not just at violence but at re-centering the Palestinian cause, derailing Saudi-Israel normalization, and provoking Israel into a costly occupation. Netanyahu may have seen the war as a path to restored deterrence and political survival, even as he publicly resisted a true Palestinian state. The Biden administration’s central goals—avoid regional war, bring home hostages, protect Palestinians, and preserve a political horizon—were largely unmet. U.S. policy relied on incremental diplomacy and backchannels, but it never crossed the threshold of real coercion against Israel. Israel’s war planning for Gaza was improvisational and lacked a credible postwar governance strategy from the start. Hezbollah and Iran were not operating as a single, perfectly coordinated bloc; both showed caution and internal constraints. The administration’s humanitarian efforts achieved some marginal gains, but not enough to change the war’s overall trajectory. A lasting resolution likely requires some political settlement involving Palestinians; deterrence alone will not solve Israel’s long-term security problem, per the American view. Israel’s own strategic view is different: it believes overwhelming force and restored deterrence are the path to safety. The U.S. and Israel operated from fundamentally different assumptions about what security means and what the war should accomplish.

Data Points: Palestinians killed in Gaza: more than 40,000 - Estimated death toll cited as a result of the Israeli invasion and bombing campaign. Hostages murdered in Gaza tunnels: 6 - Foer references six hostages recently killed in tunnels during stalled negotiations. Attack date: October 7, 2023 - The Hamas invasion into Israel that triggered the war and the episode’s one-year reflection. Reference date: almost a year to the day after October 7th - The episode aired roughly one year after the Hamas attack. U.S. military exercise: Juniper Oak - War games the Biden administration had conducted earlier in the year to prepare for possible conflict with Iran. Gaza pier duration: 20 days - The U.S.-built aid pier was described as lasting only about 20 days before being taken down. March State of the Union civilian toll: more than 30,000 Palestinians killed - Biden’s speech cited the rapidly rising death toll in Gaza by March. Pivotal negotiation window: by Christmas - Israeli officials allegedly told the U.S. the initial Gaza invasion would be over by Christmas. Aid/deaths framing: nearly 2 million - Biden cited nearly 2 million Palestinians under bombardment or displacement. Military positioning: carrier groups moved into the region - The administration deployed U.S. forces to deter Iranian or Hezbollah escalation.

Pivotal Quotes: "The point of foreign policy is to influence the policies of foreign governments. By that measure, America has failed." — Frank Foer: Foer’s summary judgment on U.S. policy after a year of war. "It is a red line, but I'm never going to leave Israel." — Joe Biden: Biden describing his limits on Israel’s Rafah operation while affirming continued support. "This is an anatomy of a failure." — Frank Foer: Foer’s phrase describing the overall trajectory of U.S. diplomacy during the war.

Implications: The episode suggests U.S. influence in the Middle East is weaker than advertised when it avoids real pressure. Without a credible postwar political plan, the conflict may deepen, regionalize, and leave Palestinians and Israelis trapped in an unstable status quo.