Episode Summary
Executive Summary: The episode pairs a historical analysis of Labor Day and May Day with an economics discussion of Ukrainian refugees. Adam Tooze explains how May 1 became an international workers’ holiday rooted in the Haymarket Affair, why the U.S. shifted Labor Day to September, and how labor movements intersect with nationalism, fascism, and migration politics. The second half examines the likely economic and humanitarian aftermath of the Ukraine war for refugees and the home economy.
Main Topics: Origins of May Day vs. U.S. Labor Day (Priority: 5/5): Tooze traces International Workers’ Day to the 1886 Haymarket Affair and the 1889 Second International, contrasting it with the U.S. decision to place Labor Day in September to avoid the association with labor martyrdom and radicalism. May Day as protest, union celebration, and state ritual (Priority: 4/5): The conversation outlines three broad forms of May Day: revolutionary demonstrations, official union celebrations, and state-backed socialist pageantry, showing how the holiday’s meaning has shifted across political systems. Labor, nationalism, and the far right (Priority: 5/5): Tooze argues that World War I created a crisis of loyalty for labor movements and that nationalism helped shape both fascist and authoritarian labor politics, including labor fronts and anti-migrant, anti-Chinese labor campaigns. Why some sectors unionize more easily than others (Priority: 4/5): The hosts challenge the assumption that industrial work is inherently more union-friendly. Tooze argues that union strength depends more on historical power relations and social organization than on technology alone, noting strong unionization in public-sector service work. Ukrainian refugee flows and return dynamics (Priority: 5/5): The second half assesses whether Ukraine’s 4.5 million refugees will return home, emphasizing that outcomes depend on war intensity, stabilization, host-country policies, and whether refugees can rebuild lives abroad. Economic effects of displacement on host and origin countries (Priority: 5/5): Tooze explains that refugee inflows can strain housing and services short term but stimulate demand, entrepreneurship, and long-run integration. For Ukraine, however, war damage, currency collapse, and lost labor make recovery highly uncertain.
Key Arguments: May Day originated in the United States, but it became an international holiday because global labor movements adopted it to commemorate the Haymarket Affair and labor repression. The U.S. moved Labor Day to September to create a less contentious, more nationally acceptable celebration of labor, separating it from revolutionary and martyrdom associations. Labor movements have always been politically ambiguous: they can support universal worker solidarity, but they also often align with nationalism, exclusion, and anti-migrant politics. Fascist movements borrowed labor symbolism and built state-controlled labor fronts, offering welfare while suppressing independent labor power and holding down wages. Unionization depends less on whether work is industrial or service-based than on class power, institutional history, and workplace organization. Refugee crises usually have long tails; mass return is not immediate and depends heavily on whether the home country becomes safe and economically viable. Host countries can benefit economically from refugees over time through demand stimulus, business formation, and labor-force integration if policy is welcoming. Ukraine’s war has already caused severe economic destruction, so even if refugees return, they will not be returning to the same economy. Diasporas can become geopolitical assets for the home country by creating remittance flows, international lobbying power, and long-term influence abroad.
Data Points: May Day’s de facto age: 132 years - The hosts note that May 1 has functioned as Labor Day in many countries for about 132 years. Haymarket Affair date: May 1, 1886 - The Chicago labor protests and violent repression that inspired International Workers’ Day. Second International congress: 1889 - In Paris, the socialist movement proposed commemorating labor repression on May 1. Ukrainian refugees: 4.5 million - Estimated number of Ukrainians who fled the country after the war began. Share of pre-war population displaced: About 10% - The refugee total was framed as roughly one-tenth of Ukraine’s pre-war population. Pre-war Ukrainian population: 44 million - Baseline population used to contextualize refugee outflows. Return flow ratio: About 2:1 - In early April, about two people were entering Ukraine for every one leaving for Poland. Property damage estimate: $80 billion - Ukrainian economists’ estimate of war damage so far. Damage as share of GDP: About half of pre-war GDP - The $80 billion in damage was compared with Ukraine’s pre-war output. Refugee-hosting example firms: Over 10,000 firms - Estimate of Syrian-refugee-operated firms in Turkey. South Africa strike mobilization: 1.5 million people - Referenced as the 1986 COSATU strike and demonstration against apartheid. Migration labor share in EU: Around 3 million Ukrainians - Estimated number of Ukrainians working in the EU in a typical year before the war. Global Ukrainian diaspora: 6 to 20 million+ - Approximate size range of the Ukrainian diaspora worldwide. Countries with diaspora presence: 100+ countries - The transcript notes Ukrainians living across more than 100 countries. Refugee review ratings: 4.9/5 - BetterHelp sponsorship mentions average live-session rating across client reviews. Therapist network size: 30,000 therapists - BetterHelp’s claimed therapist network size. Global users: 5 million+ - BetterHelp platform reach cited in the sponsorship read. Client reviews: 1.7 million - Used to support BetterHelp’s average live-session rating. BetterHelp discount: 10% off first month - Offer promoted to listeners using the show’s referral link.
Pivotal Quotes: "The day is chosen to commemorate an act of American state violence." — Adam Tooze: Explaining why May 1 became International Workers’ Day after the Haymarket Affair. "There’s a deep, deep tension that runs through the entire labor movement." — Adam Tooze: Discussing the clash between labor solidarity, nationalism, and anti-migrant exclusion. "And my side has been waging it, and we’ve won." — Warren Buffett (quoted by Adam Tooze): Used to illustrate elite confidence in the class struggle being effectively settled in favor of capital.
Implications: The episode suggests labor politics remain shaped by history, power, and identity—not just economics. For Ukraine, refugee outcomes will hinge on security, policy, and reconstruction, with diasporas potentially becoming long-term strategic assets.
About Ones and Tooze
Foreign Policy economics columnist Adam Tooze, a history professor and a popular author, is encyclopedic about basically everything: from the COVID shutdown, to climate change, to pasta sauce. On our new podcast, Tooze and FP deputy editor Cameron Abadi will look at two data points each week that explain the world: one drawn from the week’s headlines and the other from just about anywhere else Tooze takes us. Check out Adam Tooze’s column at https://foreignpolicy.com/author/adam-tooze/.