HS2 and electric cars, UK vs China emissions & massive maths errors

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: This episode debunks three viral numerical claims: that HS2’s £100bn budget could buy everyone an electric car, that Covid vaccines caused mass deaths, and that the UK is negligible in climate emissions. It shows the HS2/car claim is wildly off, the vaccine-death statistic reflects expected mortality and selection effects, and the UK’s emissions are about 1% globally, rising to 1.4% when trade is included.

Main Topics: HS2 vs. electric cars: The programme tests a viral claim that HS2’s cost could buy every person in the UK an electric car. Using government cost estimates and current car prices, it shows the comparison is not remotely plausible. Covid vaccine death-statistics claim: It examines social-media claims that a large share of vaccinated people died after vaccination, explaining why raw post-vaccination death counts are misleading without age and baseline-mortality context. Excess deaths and vaccination status: Actuarial analysis compares observed deaths with expected deaths and finds vaccinated people had lower-than-expected mortality, while unvaccinated people had substantially higher-than-expected mortality. UK climate emissions in global context: The episode checks the UK’s share of global CO2 emissions, per-capita emissions, historical cumulative emissions, and trade-adjusted emissions, showing the UK remains a meaningful contributor despite its small global share. Misuse of statistics and mathematical errors in media: A recurring theme is how informal comments, formatting mistakes, and arithmetic slips can create misleading public narratives, from hyperbole on radio to a superscript error in a newspaper. The myth of using only 10% of the brain: The show briefly revisits a long-running pseudoscientific claim, noting its self-help origins and teasing a fuller discussion of brain-use myths in a later segment.

Key Arguments: The HS2 claim fails immediately because £100bn is nowhere near enough to buy even the cheapest new electric car for every UK resident, let alone every driver. Using the cheapest cited EV price (£22,500), the cost to buy cars for 67 million people would be about £1.5tn. Even limiting the calculation to 43 million licence holders still puts the total at about £1tn, far above HS2’s estimated cost. The vaccine-death figures are real as raw counts, but they are misleading because vaccinated people are older and thus expected to have higher mortality over the period. Observed deaths among vaccinated people were lower than expected once age is controlled for, indicating no evidence of a vaccine-caused mass mortality event. Observed deaths among unvaccinated people were far higher than expected, consistent with both baseline health differences and reduced protection from COVID. UK domestic emissions are about 1% of global CO2, but that does not mean the UK is irrelevant; per-capita emissions are around the global average and historical emissions are substantial. When imports are included, the UK’s consumption-based emissions rise from about 0.93% to about 1.4% of the global total. China’s emissions in 2014-2021 exceeded the UK’s cumulative emissions since 1750, but that does not imply climate action is futile because China is rapidly deploying renewables. Small-emitting countries together still account for a large share of global emissions, so collective action remains mathematically and politically necessary.

Data Points: HS2 projected cost: £100 billion - Government-commissioned Oakervee review estimate used for the comparison Cheapest electric car price: £22,500 - Smart EQ42 cited by New Automotive UK population: 67 million - Used to estimate total cost of buying everyone an electric car Cost to buy everyone an electric car: About £1.5 trillion - £22,500 multiplied by 67 million people UK driving-licence holders: 43 million - Alternative narrower population for the car-cost calculation Cost to buy every licence holder an electric car: About £1 trillion - Still far above HS2’s projected cost Electric scooter cost: £1,000 to £2,000 - Presented as the only cheaper option mentioned, though not a car substitute Cost to buy everyone an electric scooter: £67 billion at £1,000 each - 67 million people multiplied by £1,000 Claimed death ratio after vaccination: 1 in 73 - Social-media claim about vaccinated people in England dead by May 2022 Deaths within one month of vaccination: 1 in 482 - Official figure cited in the viral claim about deaths after vaccination Deaths within 60 days of vaccination: 1 in 246 - Official figure cited in the viral claim about deaths after vaccination UK annual death rate: Around 0.9% - Used to show the 1 in 73 figure is not inherently surprising over a long period Annual UK deaths: Around 600,000 - Out of a population of 67 million Expected death rate for vaccinated population: A little over 1.5% - Based on the age profile of vaccinated people Average age of vaccinated people: 53 - From the ONS-linked dataset used in the actuarial analysis Average age of unvaccinated people: 34 - From the same dataset Subset of data analysed: 79% - Data linked to census and GP register records Expected deaths among vaccinated people: 598,000 - Based on pre-pandemic age-specific mortality rates Actual deaths among vaccinated people: A little over 531,000 - Observed in the analysed dataset Vaccinated mortality vs expectation: 11% lower than expected - Indicates no sign of elevated death risk from vaccination Expected deaths among unvaccinated people: Around 57,000 - Calculated from age profile and population size Actual deaths among unvaccinated people: Around 110,000 - Observed over the same period Unvaccinated mortality vs expectation: 93% higher than expected - Suggests substantial elevated risk in the unvaccinated group Recorded vaccine-related deaths in England and Wales: 56 - Deaths where COVID-19 vaccine was listed as the underlying cause up to end of July 2023 Vaccine-related deaths mentioning vaccine in any context: 64 - Includes contributing-cause mentions Excess deaths in the UK during the pandemic: Over 200,000 - Used to contextualise the small number of vaccine-related deaths Guardian physics-number error: 10^57 misprinted as 1057 - Superscript formatting mistake discussed as an extreme numerical error More or Less US debt error factor: 36,028 - Their earlier mistake in describing 32 trillion as 32 to the power of 12 China emissions vs UK cumulative emissions: 83 billion tonnes vs 79 billion tonnes - China’s 2014-2021 emissions compared with UK emissions since around 1750 UK share of global CO2 emissions: 0.93% - Domestic emissions from the UK UK share including trade adjustment: About 1.4% - Consumption-based emissions after accounting for imports/exports UK share of world population: Just under 0.9% - Used to contextualise per-capita emissions Net imported emissions: Around 40% of domestic total - Difference between emissions embodied in imports and exports China’s share of global emissions: Around one third - Used in argument that major emitters cannot act alone Other big emitters’ share: Around one third - Countries emitting more than 2% each Rest of world share: Just over one third - Many smaller emitters combined Brain-use myth origin: Nearly 100 years ago - Self-help-book origin of the 10% brain claim

Pivotal Quotes: "It was a comment made in the moment by me, with absolutely no basis in fact, but rather driven by my prejudices." — Joan Burney: Her voice-note explanation after the HS2/electric car claim "When I looked at these numbers, actually, they didn't strike me as particularly exceptional when we consider the age distribution of the vaccinated population." — Stuart MacDonald: Explaining why the post-vaccination death figures are not evidence of vaccine harm "The simple explanation is that in looking at the deaths in this vaccinated group, you're looking at a group who were always at a lower risk of death anyway for other reasons." — Stuart MacDonald: Why vaccinated people had fewer deaths than expected

Implications: Listeners should treat raw viral statistics cautiously and ask what baseline, age, and context are missing. The episode reinforces that bad arithmetic can mislead public debate on transport, health, and climate policy.