Inflation cools, how Waymo handled a crash, and the next startups to go public | E1965

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode covers a wide-ranging tech and markets discussion: Waymo’s quick software recall after a minor crash, Apple’s post-WWDC AI-driven stock surge, easing inflation and the likelihood of rate cuts, and a deep dive into what regulatory clarity could mean for crypto. The hosts also unveil and populate their Twist 500 IPO watchlist, highlighting likely public listings across crypto, SaaS, and AI.

Main Topics: Waymo’s crash and proactive recall: A low-speed Waymo collision with a telephone pole is framed as an expected edge-case failure in autonomous driving. The hosts praise Waymo for issuing a fast software update across its fleet, contrasting that response with Cruise’s slower, more damaging handling of an earlier incident. Apple’s AI afterglow and hardware cycle: Apple’s stock rallied sharply after WWDC AI announcements, suggesting investors expect AI features to drive a replacement cycle and strengthen Apple’s hardware business. The discussion also notes device compatibility limits and frustration with iPad’s constrained software model. Inflation cooling and rate-cut expectations: The hosts interpret the latest CPI as a positive sign that inflation is easing and discuss how lower rates could revive consumer spending, venture funding, and the IPO market. They connect higher yields to capital staying on the sidelines and reduced risk appetite. Crypto regulation through disclosure and investor protections: Jason argues that crypto projects should face IPO-like disclosure requirements, including ownership transparency, token-sale notifications, and staged regulation based on scale. The segment emphasizes that code authors have informational advantages similar to insiders in public markets. Twist 500 IPO watchlist: The show introduces and stress-tests a list of private companies most likely to IPO, including Databricks, Gusto, Kraken, Circle, Turo, Chime, Stripe, and possible AI entrants. The segment explores what revenue scale, maturity, and market conditions make an IPO plausible now. SaaS and AI company market positioning: The hosts argue that elevated rates and AI pressure have compressed SaaS multiples, but also that efficiency gains could improve margins. They speculate AI infrastructure/model companies may resemble cloud providers more than consumer apps, delaying public listings.

Key Arguments: Autonomous vehicles should be held to a higher standard than human drivers, but low-speed edge-case errors are still useful for improving safety. Waymo’s quick recall demonstrates good faith and operational maturity, unlike Cruise’s mishandled incident response. Apple’s AI announcements matter because they can force hardware upgrades, especially among users on older iPhones. Inflation slowing is good, but the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance still matters because rates directly affect startup valuations and venture fundraising. Lower rates can unlock consumer spending, public-market multiples, and eventually more IPO activity. Crypto should not be a free-for-all; if projects are sold to U.S. investors, they should disclose owners, affiliations, and token sales like public companies do. Venture and startup capital flow depends heavily on the relative attractiveness of public-market and fixed-income returns. The most likely IPO candidates are companies with scale, maturity, and enough investor pressure to justify going public even in a cautious market. AI model companies may delay IPOs because they need years of infrastructure investment and may monetize more like cloud platforms than consumer products.

Data Points: Waymo fleet update: 672 cars - Waymo pushed a software update/recall across its entire fleet after a crash Waymo crash speed: 8 mph - The self-driving taxi hit a telephone pole at low speed in an alley Autonomous vehicle market footprint: 4 cities - Waymo was described as operating in Austin, San Francisco, Phoenix, and Los Angeles Apple market-cap gain: ~$300B–$340B - Estimated increase in Apple’s valuation after WWDC AI announcements Apple share price (earlier reading): $192.50 - Share price before the post-WWDC AI afterglow Apple share price (later reading): $215.85 to $219.60 - Stock price after the AI-related rally CPI change in May: 0.0% month-over-month - Consumer Price Index was unchanged in May CPI annual rate: 3.3% - Inflation was up 3.3% over the prior 12 months Prior CPI annual rate: 3.4% - April’s year-over-year CPI level used for comparison Fed inflation target: 2% - Discussed as the informal benchmark central banks aim for Zillow stock move: +12% - Shares rose on expectations that rate cuts could revive housing activity Instacart valuation context: ~$8B–$9.1B market cap - Used as a public-market comparable in the IPO discussion Databricks revenue: $1.6B - Last fiscal year revenue cited as growing rapidly Databricks growth: ~50% YoY - Revenue growth at the end of the last fiscal year Databricks last valuation: $43B - Latest round valuation cited for the company Gusto trailing revenue: $500M+ - Trailing revenue as of last April Gusto fundraising: $750M raised - Total capital raised cited in the IPO discussion Kraken projected revenue: $1B–$2B - Estimated revenue range for the crypto exchange in the coming year Circle status: Filed privately to go public - Stablecoin company mentioned as an IPO candidate Shein sales: $32.2B - Annual sales cited for the fast-fashion company Shein growth: 40% - Year-over-year sales growth cited Shein profit margin: ~5% - Reported margin mentioned in the discussion Shein profit: $1.6B - Estimated profit based on reported margin and sales Rate-cut probability shift: ~20% higher odds - Traders’ expectations for a rate cut by or before September S&P 500 move: +1% - Stock market reaction to cooler inflation and rate-cut expectations NASDAQ move: +1.7% - Intraday market reaction cited during the discussion One-in-six statistic: 1 in 6 - Referenced as the share of first-time venture funds able to raise a second fund recently Dell share sale plan: 10 million shares worth $1.3B - Example used to argue for disclosure of insider sales

Pivotal Quotes: "This is all about disclosures, and I think a regulatory framework would be a really, really great step forward." — Jason: Jason’s argument that crypto needs public-company-style transparency and staged regulation "The advantage of somebody who's writing the code of how the project works—that's like being like, I control how the money is printed." — Jason: Used to explain why founders and token creators have an information advantage over buyers "We got big docket energy today, and it's hot tech summer." — Jason: Opening framing for the show’s broad tech-news agenda

Implications: Listeners should expect tighter scrutiny of crypto, more AI-driven hardware upgrades, and a potentially reopening IPO market if inflation keeps cooling and rates fall. Transparency and scale look increasingly like the price of admission for private companies seeking liquidity.