Is JD Vance right about left-wing violence?

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: This episode of More or Less examines claims about political violence in the US following the assassination of Charlie Kirk. Host Tim Harford and analyst Lizzie McNeil scrutinize statements by J.D. Vance and Donald Trump that most political violence comes from the left. They analyze polling data and historical statistics, finding that definitions of political violence vary widely, motives are often unclear, and recent trends show a more balanced distribution between left and right, challenging simplistic narratives.

Main Topics: Charlie Kirk Assassination and Aftermath (Priority: 5/5): The murder of political activist Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University and the subsequent political responses, including J.D. Vance's call for unity and claims about political violence. Polling on Political Violence Justification (Priority: 4/5): Analysis of a YouGov poll showing 24% of 'very liberals' find it acceptable to be happy about a political opponent's death, and 25% of very liberals vs 3% of very conservatives think political violence is sometimes justified. Historical Data on Political Violence Deaths (Priority: 5/5): Cato Institute data from 1975 shows 3,599 deaths from politically motivated attacks: 2% left, 11% right, 87% Islamists (including 9/11). Excluding 9/11: 10% left, 63% right. Since 2020: 22% left, 44% right, 54% unknown. Definitional Challenges of Political Violence (Priority: 4/5): The lack of a standard definition for political violence complicates analysis. Different counts include various acts (protests, threats, attacks) and motives are often unclear, mixing ideology with mental illness. Recent Trends and Balanced Violence (Priority: 3/5): Professor Robert Pape notes that from the 1960s violence came mainly from the left, from the 70s to 2018-19 from the right, and since 2019-2021 it has been far more balanced. Ambiguous Motives in High-Profile Cases (Priority: 3/5): Examples like the attacks on Paul Pelosi, Josh Shapiro's mansion, and the attempt on President Trump's life show perpetrators often have incoherent ideologies or mental health issues, not clear political affiliations.

Key Arguments: J.D. Vance's claim that 'most of the lunatics in American politics today are proud members of the far left' is partially supported by a YouGov poll showing higher justification for political violence among very liberals, but the majority across all groups oppose violence. Donald Trump's assertion that 'most of the violence is on the left' is contested; historical data shows more right-wing violence overall, but recent years show a more balanced distribution. The term 'political violence' is ambiguous, covering everything from murder to public disorder, making it difficult to attribute motives accurately. Many perpetrators of political violence have incoherent ideologies or mental health issues, not clear left/right affiliations, as seen in cases like the Reagan assassination attempt and recent attacks.

Data Points: Very liberals finding it acceptable to be happy about a political opponent's death: 24% - YouGov poll conducted after Charlie Kirk's assassination Very liberals saying political violence is sometimes justified: 25% - Compared to 3% for very conservatives (YouGov poll) Deaths from politically motivated attacks since 1975: 3,599 - Cato Institute data; 2% left, 11% right, 87% Islamists (including 9/11) Share of politically motivated murders by left (excluding 9/11): 10% - Cato Institute data; right 63% Murders by left since 2020: 18 (22%) - Cato Institute data; right 44%, unknown 54%

Pivotal Quotes: "It is a statistical fact that most of the lunatics in American politics today are proud members of the far left." — J.D. Vance: During a special edition of the Charlie Kirk Show after Kirk's assassination, calling for unity but making a claim about political violence. "Most of the violence is on the left." — Donald Trump: Response to a question about unity, echoing Vance's sentiment. "If we look at the modern era, though, it's not clear that a lot of the folks who are committing political violence have any kind of ideology. Most of these folks are isolated on the fringes of society with incoherent ideological views." — Sean Westwood: Associate professor of government at Dartmouth College, discussing the difficulty of attributing political motives to perpetrators.

Implications: This analysis highlights the danger of oversimplifying political violence into left vs. right narratives. It underscores the need for precise definitions and careful data interpretation to avoid fueling polarization. Listeners should be skeptical of sweeping claims and recognize the complexity of motives behind political violence.