Joel Mokyr on Growth, Innovation, and Stagnation

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Joel Mokyr argues that fears of secular technological stagnation are misplaced: science, invention, and new institutions will keep generating growth, even if measured GDP understates it. He emphasizes the feedback loop between tools and knowledge, the creation of new jobs and leisure, and the need to solve technology’s “bite backs” like obesity and pollution.

Main Topics: Why “growth is over” is the wrong frame (Priority: 5/5): Mokyr rejects Robert Gordon’s headwinds argument, saying it omits powerful tailwinds from future innovation and underestimates humanity’s historical ability to progress amid severe shocks. Science, tools, and the engine of innovation (Priority: 5/5): He argues that technological progress depends on an interplay between practical techniques and scientific knowledge, with better instruments and computing expanding what science can discover. Conceptual breakthroughs versus incremental tinkering (Priority: 4/5): Mokyr pushes back on Edmund Phelps’s emphasis on small-scale “mass flourishing,” insisting that major advances like relativity, quantum mechanics, chemistry, and the steam engine required big scientific leaps first. Automation, jobs, and creative destruction (Priority: 5/5): He agrees technology destroys some jobs and skills, but argues it also creates new occupations, pushes workers toward less routine tasks, and can expand leisure and flexibility. Measurement problems and hidden gains (Priority: 5/5): Mokyr says GDP and productivity statistics miss major welfare gains from cheap or new goods, improved quality, and leisure, while also failing to subtract some social costs. The death of distance and remote work (Priority: 4/5): He predicts digital communication will increasingly replace travel, commuting, and fixed office work, allowing more family life and home-based work. Technology’s ‘bite back’ and the need for continuous innovation (Priority: 4/5): He emphasizes that new technologies create unintended problems—like obesity, tooth decay, and carbon emissions—that require further innovation to fix.

Key Arguments: Past stagnation predictions have repeatedly been wrong; the 20th century had major headwinds yet produced unprecedented growth. Technology and science reinforce each other: better tools enable discovery, and discoveries enable better tools. Big breakthroughs matter because many technologies require prior conceptual knowledge before incremental improvements can matter. Automation mainly replaces dull, routine, and physically taxing work; new jobs and forms of work emerge alongside it. Measured GDP undercounts welfare because it misses quality improvements, new goods, consumer surplus, and leisure. National accounts also overcount output by ignoring external costs such as pollution and climate damage. Remote communication will reduce commuting, travel, and location dependence, enabling more work-from-home and family-centered lives. Technology advances are necessary because new innovations often create new problems that only further innovation can solve.

Data Points: Date of episode: November 13th, 2013 - Introductory framing of the EconTalk episode. Century of progress claim: 20th century - Mokyr says the 20th century was the most successful century in economic history despite global wars, depression, and totalitarianism. Early steam engine date: 1712 - Thomas Newcomen’s first working steam engine model. Scientific revolution tools: 17th century - Telescope, microscope, vacuum pump, and related instruments helped trigger scientific advances. Computer claim: Most powerful research tool humans have ever invented - Mokyr describes modern computing as unprecedented in scientific and research utility. Agricultural workforce share: 40% - Russ Roberts notes that around 1900, 40% of the American workforce was on farms. Agricultural workforce share after a century: 3% - Roberts contrasts the 1900 share with the later level to illustrate job displacement without collapse. Work year hours in 20th century: 1950 hours/year - Mokyr cites approximate annual hours worked in the U.S. in the modern era. Work year hours early 20th century: 3000 hours/year - Mokyr contrasts earlier labor intensity with later reduced work time. Leisure/work reduction in Europe: Probably by half - He argues Europeans reduced annual work even more than Americans over the century.

Pivotal Quotes: "you ain't seen nothing yet" — Joel Mokyr: Mokyr’s central thesis that future technological progress will far exceed current expectations. "the death of distance" — Joel Mokyr: His phrase for how digital communication will reduce the need for travel, commuting, and fixed-location work. "Technology has the tendency to make skills obsolete" — Joel Mokyr: He explains the labor-market downside of innovation while arguing new opportunities still emerge.

Implications: Listeners should expect continued innovation, but also more labor disruption and policy challenges. The biggest gains may appear as better quality of life, more leisure, and remote work rather than just higher GDP.