Jonathan Goldberg - Capturing Carbon - [Founder’s Field Guide, EP. 25]

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Patrick O’Shaughnessy interviews Jonathan Goldberg, founder and CEO of Carbon Direct, about his path from commodities trading to carbon management, and why climate action must address both emissions flow and atmospheric stock. Goldberg argues that scalable carbon removal, standards, and pricing are essential because voluntary pledges alone won’t solve the problem.

Main Topics: Goldberg’s career path from markets to climate (Priority: 5/5): He moved from Reuters and Goldman commodities trading to Glencore, then founded BBL Commodities and Carbon Direct. How commodity trading changed (Priority: 4/5): Trading shifted from bilateral, relationship-driven oil markets to electronic, faster, more transparent markets. Why carbon is a stock problem, not just a flow problem (Priority: 5/5): He argues climate work must address both annual emissions and the much larger accumulated atmospheric stock. Carbon removal technologies (Priority: 5/5): He explains natural and engineered removal, especially direct air capture, storage, and biomass pathways. Policy, pricing, and corporate demand (Priority: 5/5): He emphasizes carbon taxes, standards, and corporate buyers as the main forces that can scale solutions. Limits of divestment and voluntary markets (Priority: 4/5): He warns that divestment and voluntary pledges are not sufficient without rigorous science and regulation. Carbon Direct’s investing approach (Priority: 4/5): The firm backs science-validated growth-stage companies that can prove carbon impact in the real world.

Key Arguments: Carbon needs both abatement and removal; net zero on flow alone is insufficient. The atmospheric stock is ~1.6 trillion tons, while annual flow is ~40 billion tons. Heavy industry, cement, and steel are hard to decarbonize quickly, so removal remains necessary. Direct air capture is old technology but needs incentives like taxes or corporate demand to scale. Natural removal helps but is limited by land, durability, and measurement quality. Voluntary carbon markets alone are too small and need science-first verification. Divestment shifts asset ownership, but it does not reduce real-world emissions by itself.

Data Points: Stock of CO2 already in the atmosphere: about 1.6 trillion tons - Goldberg uses this to argue the existing carbon stock is the core problem. Annual flow of CO2 emissions: 40 billion tons per annum - He contrasts this with the much larger accumulated stock. Global energy industry investment: about $2 trillion per annum - He cites this to show the scale of the energy system and transition challenge. Broader fossil industries investment: about double that - He extends the capital scale beyond energy to related fossil industries. Negative emissions industry assumed in models: roughly 10 gigatons per annum - He says climate models often assume large-scale removals by 2030-2050. Size of the entire energy industry throughput: about five gigatons per annum - He compares required carbon removal scale to today’s energy throughput. Heavy industry emissions: 8% - He cites heavy industry as a major hard-to-abate emissions source. Broader heavy industry emissions: roughly 22% - He includes broader industrial emissions beyond heavy industry. CO2 stored globally underground: about 20 trillion tons of available geological storage - He says storage capacity is not the limiting factor for carbon capture. Carbon footprint of Carbon Direct clients: about 650 million tons per annum - He says the firm works with major global clients whose emissions are roughly Germany-sized. Number of scientists on Carbon Direct’s team: 25 scientists - He uses this to emphasize science-first diligence. EU ETS annual turnover: about a trillion dollars - He cites Europe’s carbon market as one of the most important policy mechanisms. Canadian carbon tax target: $175 a ton - He highlights Canada as a leader in compulsory carbon pricing. EU carbon price: €33 a ton, give or take - He says Europe’s price is approaching a more realistic level. Long-run carbon price benchmark: roughly the cost to remove and store CO2 - He argues carbon should be priced at true remediation cost. Direct air capture plant timeline: four years, three and a half years to build - He notes slow build times make scaling difficult. Voluntary carbon market client base: 13 clients - He describes Carbon Direct’s advisory practice and customer scale. Share of emissions since Inconvenient Truth: half of all emissions since the industrial age - He uses this to argue climate awareness has not yet led to sufficient action. Electric vehicle subsidy cost: $500 a ton - He says some policies are expensive on a per-ton basis, even if helpful.

Pivotal Quotes: "The stock of CO2 already in the atmosphere was about 1.6 trillion tons... And the flow is only 40 billion tons per annum." — Jonathan Goldberg: He explains why climate policy must address accumulated carbon, not just annual emissions. "If you're betting that these voluntary pledges are going to fix this, that is a bad bet." — Jonathan Goldberg: He warns that voluntary corporate action is not enough at current scale. "The market needs to come second, third, and last to what matters." — Jonathan Goldberg: He argues science and verification should govern carbon solutions before market expansion.

Implications: The unresolved task is building durable, verifiable carbon infrastructure at scale, so the next phase depends on better pricing, policy, and evidence-based investment.