MacroVoices #494 Micheal Every: Markets, Policy, Russia & More

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Macro Voices 494 centered on Michael Every’s thesis that U.S. policy is increasingly a coordinated grand strategy linking geopolitics, monetary policy, trade, and financial infrastructure. He argued the Ukraine war is likely entering a pause phase that shifts burdens to Europe, while stablecoins, tariffs, Fed pressure, and lower energy prices are being used to reindustrialize the U.S. and preserve dollar dominance. The chart discussion framed markets as rotating out of AI into defensives, with gold, uranium, and bonds offering different risk-reward setups.

Main Topics: Ukraine, Trump-Putin diplomacy, and a pause in the war (Priority: 5/5): Every argued the summit is more likely to mark an end of one phase of the war than the war itself, with Russia likely retaining roughly 20% of Ukraine and Europe being asked to underwrite any security framework. U.S. grand macro strategy and geopolitical statecraft (Priority: 5/5): He framed U.S. policy as integrated economic, military, and political statecraft aimed at preserving U.S. hegemony and shifting attention toward Asia while containing China. Fed leadership, rate cuts, and policy weaponization (Priority: 5/5): The discussion tied the search for a new Fed chair and pressure for rate cuts to broader strategic aims, including funding U.S. deficits, managing swap lines, and aligning monetary policy with national security goals. Stablecoins, T-bills, and re-dollarization (Priority: 5/5): Every argued that the Genius Act and dollar-backed stablecoins could recreate global dollar demand, support T-bill issuance, and channel allies into U.S.-centric payment and supply-chain systems. U.S.-Europe relations and strategic autonomy (Priority: 4/5): Europe was portrayed as resentful but boxed in, forced toward higher defense spending, larger U.S. investment, and deeper dependency on U.S. security and industrial supply chains. Market rotation, precious metals, uranium, oil, and bonds (Priority: 4/5): Patrick’s chart review showed rotation away from tech/AI into defensives and international equities, while gold looks poised for another leg higher, uranium is correcting within a bull market, copper looks weak, and bonds may be setting up for a contrarian rally. Data credibility and the BLS firing (Priority: 3/5): Every defended Trump’s firing of the BLS head as consistent with longstanding statistical weaknesses in U.S. labor data, arguing the payroll report is too flawed to be treated as a reliable market signal.

Key Arguments: The Ukraine conflict is likely not ending, but moving into a new phase in which Russia keeps occupied territory and Europe is pushed to provide security guarantees. The U.S. does not want to fight Russia directly or impose secondary sanctions on China, because doing so would create unacceptable economic costs. Monetary policy is now part of national security; the Fed is expected to support the broader strategic agenda rather than focus narrowly on inflation targets. Dollar-backed stablecoins can be used to recreate global demand for U.S. liabilities, support T-bills, and potentially reindustrialize the U.S. through a more controlled financial network. A U.S.-centric stablecoin system would likely bifurcate global finance into allied and non-allied payment networks, limiting de-dollarization efforts. Europe cannot realistically achieve strategic autonomy quickly because it lacks the industrial, fiscal, energy, and defense capacity it deferred for decades. The BLS payroll data are structurally noisy and heavily revised, so skepticism about the quality of official U.S. labor statistics is justified. A peace narrative in Ukraine may be bearish for some geopolitical hedges in the very short term, but the broader strategic backdrop remains supportive for hedges like gold over time. The equity market is undergoing a major internal rotation from AI/mega-cap tech into defensives, international stocks, and other less crowded sectors. Uranium’s selloff is likely a correction within a still-powerful bull market rather than a fundamental trend break. Low energy prices fit the Trump grand strategy because cheap inputs help downstream production and reindustrialization. If bond yields fail to break higher, the 10-year could move lower toward the bottom of its range, making bonds a contrarian opportunity.

Data Points: Episode number: 494 - Macro Voices episode identifier Production date: August 21, 2025 - Episode release date SP 500 weekly change: Down 108 basis points - Macro scoreboard as of close Wednesday, Aug. 20, 2025 SP 500 level: 6396 - Macro scoreboard closing level U.S. dollar index weekly change: Up 44 basis points - Macro scoreboard U.S. dollar index level: 98.22 - Macro scoreboard and chart discussion WTI crude weekly change: Up 10 basis points - Macro scoreboard WTI crude level: 62.71 - Macro scoreboard RBOB gasoline weekly change: Up 262 basis points - Macro scoreboard RBOB gasoline level: 196 - Macro scoreboard Gold weekly change: Down 59 basis points - Macro scoreboard Gold level: 3388 - Macro scoreboard Copper weekly change: Down 133 basis points - Macro scoreboard Copper level: 444 - Macro scoreboard Uranium weekly change: Up 97 basis points - Macro scoreboard Uranium level: 73.20 - Macro scoreboard U.S. 10-year Treasury yield weekly change: Up 5 basis points - Macro scoreboard U.S. 10-year Treasury yield level: 4.29% - Macro scoreboard Implied Ukraine territory under Russian control: ~20% - Every’s estimate of likely post-summit outcome U.S. rate-cut target mentioned by Besant: 150 to 175 basis points - Discussed as desired Fed easing magnitude Offshore dollar liabilities: ~120 trillion - Every’s estimate of global offshore dollar liabilities Official FX reserves abroad: ~7 trillion - Every’s estimate of accessible foreign reserves Ukraine security buffer: ~80% of Ukraine - Every suggested Europe could defend and guarantee the remainder if it chooses U.S. defense spending target cited for Europe: 5% of GDP - Trump’s demand on NATO allies U.S. tariff table: Country-by-country, sector-by-sector telephone book - Described qualitatively to emphasize complexity URA correction target: Below 34 - Patrick’s preferred buy zone for uranium ETF Gold all-time high reference: Above 3500 - Patrick’s view on next breakout target WTI technical support: 62.59 - Patrick identified 100-day moving average support DXY consolidation range: 96 to 100 - Eric’s chart read for the U.S. dollar index

Pivotal Quotes: "It’s likely to be not the end of the war, per se, but the end of a phase of the war." — Michael Every: On the Trump-Putin summit and likely Ukraine outcome "We’ve entered the world of economic, military, and political statecraft." — Michael Every: Explaining why geopolitics, central banking, trade, and industry must be analyzed together "You can absolutely not de-dollarize, as people are talking about, you can re-dollarize." — Michael Every: On the role of dollar-backed stablecoins and U.S. financial control

Implications: Listeners should expect a more fragmented global system: Europe dependent on the U.S., stablecoins and tariffs reshaping dollar power, and markets rotating toward hedges and non-tech assets. Policy, geopolitics, and asset prices are increasingly one trade.