Episode Summary
Executive Summary: The episode examines a year-end wave of tech-news flashpoints: OpenAI’s copyright fight with The New York Times, Apple’s Watch import ban, Amazon adding ads to Prime Video, and Snapchat Plus emerging as an unexpected AI subscription success. The hosts argue these stories signal a new phase where big tech faces legal, reputational, and product-level pushback while AI, subscriptions, and enterprise monetization reshape the industry.
Main Topics: OpenAI vs. The New York Times copyright lawsuit (Priority: 5/5): The hosts discuss the Times’ suit over training on its journalism and Wirecutter content, arguing the case could set the tone for AI licensing, publisher compensation, and how model developers use news data. Publisher leverage and the economics of AI training data (Priority: 5/5): They debate whether the Times and other publishers can force fair licensing terms, noting that high-quality journalism may be a small share of crawl data but disproportionately valuable to model quality and user engagement. Legal liability, distribution, and generative AI (Priority: 4/5): A Jan LeCun question about who is liable when AI generates copyrighted-looking content introduces nuance around whether the toolmaker, user, or distributor bears responsibility, especially when monetization is involved. Trust, reputation, and enterprise AI risk (Priority: 4/5): The discussion broadens to how lawsuits may deepen mistrust of OpenAI and similar products, especially for businesses considering enterprise tiers where data privacy and training assurances matter. Apple Watch import ban and Apple’s 2024 growth challenge (Priority: 5/5): The hosts analyze the temporary Apple Watch sales ban tied to Masimo’s blood oxygen technology and connect it to Apple’s broader slowdown in iPhone, iPad, and Mac growth. Vision Pro, Amazon ads, and the next consumer platforms (Priority: 3/5): They debate whether Apple Vision Pro can become a new computing platform, while Amazon’s Prime Video ad tier is framed as either margin capture or a strategic extension of Amazon’s ad machine. Snapchat Plus as a consumer AI success story (Priority: 4/5): Snapchat Plus is highlighted as a surprising subscription win, with AI features possibly making it the first large-scale consumer AI product outside of ChatGPT.
Key Arguments: The New York Times lawsuit matters because it is the Times, but also because many publishers may follow with licensing demands if OpenAI does not compensate them fairly. The Wirecutter example is strong evidence of business harm because ChatGPT can reproduce subscription-grade review content while stripping away affiliate value for the Times. The fact that a small portion of crawl data can still be heavily weighted supports the argument that news content is disproportionately valuable to LLMs. OpenAI’s biggest long-term threat may be reputational: repeated accusations of unauthorized training could erode trust with consumers and enterprise customers. AI copyright disputes may hinge less on who generated the content and more on who monetized or distributed it, which could shift liability away from toolmakers in some cases. Apple’s Watch dispute shows regulators and courts can materially disrupt even the most powerful tech companies, especially when trade-secret claims are involved. Apple’s growth problem is larger than the Watch ban: slowing iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales mean it needs a new platform, and Vision Pro may be its best shot. Amazon’s Prime Video ads are not just a follower move; they also unlock higher-margin ad inventory across Amazon’s broader business. Snapchat Plus may be underestimated because its AI tools and subscription model fit Snapchat’s product strengths better than advertising does. The 2023 big-tech market story was not collapse but dominance: the largest technology companies outperformed and consolidated power despite regulatory and competitive headwinds.
Data Points: NYT share of Common Crawl: 0.0083% - Benedict Evans estimate cited in the discussion of how little of the training corpus the Times represents by volume. NYT ranking in Common Crawl weighting: Third most heavily weighted domain - Used to argue that the Times’ data is disproportionately important to model quality. ChatGPT Plus price: $20 per month - Referenced when discussing monetization of access to model outputs that may incorporate copyrighted material. Apple Watch sales impact: Temporarily pulled from sale - Apple had to halt sales during the holiday season due to the Masimo blood oxygen tech dispute. Vision Pro price: $3,499 - Discussed as Apple’s potential next growth engine and a test of new computing-platform demand. Vision Pro expected shipment: Around 500,000 devices - Used to frame the product as strategically important but not volume-driven. Amazon Prime Video ad-free add-on: $2.99 per month - Customers can pay extra to avoid ads starting in January. Amazon Prime annual price: $139 - Mentioned in comparison to the new ad-free add-on fee. Standalone Prime Video subscription: $8.99 per month - Noted as an alternative pricing option in the Amazon discussion. Snapchat Plus subscribers: 7 million - Cited as an unexpectedly strong subscription base, boosted by AI features. Snapchat Plus revenue estimate: $330 million annually - Derived from subscriber count and price; framed as a meaningful but still secondary revenue stream. Snapchat Plus price: $3.99 per month - Referenced as the subscription cost for premium features and AI tools. OpenAI/ChatGPT usage trend: Users declined across June, July, and August - Used to argue that news and timeliness can help sustain engagement. Big Technology Podcast downloads in 2023: More than 900,000 - Mentioned in year-end wrap-up and audience growth. Projected downloads next year: Well over 1 million - Used as an optimistic outlook for the show’s growth. Tan mama 2023 return: 74% in aggregate - The hosts’ acronym for the top tech market winners, showing big tech dominance. Nvidia stock gain: 237% - Part of the tan mama list of high-performing megacap tech stocks in 2023. Meta stock gain: 195% - Part of the tan mama list, illustrating the rebound in advertising and AI confidence. Tesla stock gain: 108% - Included in the year-end megacap performance roundup. Amazon stock gain: 83% - Included in the year-end megacap performance roundup. Alphabet stock gain: 63% - Included in the year-end megacap performance roundup. Microsoft stock gain: 56% - Included in the year-end megacap performance roundup. Apple stock gain: 49% - Despite underperforming peers, Apple still rose in 2023 amid revenue decline. Apple revenue decline streak: Four straight quarters - Used to underscore Apple’s slowdown despite stock gains. Apple’s longest revenue slide: 22 years - CNBC-reported context for Apple’s weak 2023 fundamentals.
Pivotal Quotes: "The models are not valuable without the content and the content up until now has been free." — Ranjan Roy: On why publisher lawsuits and licensing may reshape how AI companies operate. "What is the thing that's the most vital thing that gets, that's really good for engagement, it's news." — Alex: Arguing that timely journalism powers user retention for AI chat products. "AI is facing a crisis of trust." — Simon Wilson (referenced by the hosts): Used to frame reputational risks for OpenAI and enterprise AI products.
Implications: The episode suggests 2024 will be defined by AI licensing fights, trust battles, and pressure on platform business models. Big tech still dominates, but courts, regulators, and new consumer AI products could reshape who captures value.
About Big Technology Podcast
The Big Technology Podcast takes you behind the scenes in the tech world featuring interviews with plugged-in insiders and outside agitators. Alex Kantrowitz, a Silicon Valley journalist who's interviewed the world's top tech CEOs — from Mark Zuckerberg to Larry Ellison — is the host.