Noel Johnson and Mark Koyama on *Persecution and Toleration*

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Tyler Cowen interviews economic historians Noel Johnson and Mark Koyama about their book on how persecution, religious tolerance, and state-building evolved in Europe and beyond. They argue that intolerance often rises when states expand, identities harden, and political power is contested, while durable liberal toleration usually emerges only after strong states and markets make uniform persecution too costly.

Main Topics: Persecution, state-building, and the rise of intolerance (Priority: 5/5): Johnson argues that persecution often increases when states expand their reach and encounter greater religious and ethnic heterogeneity. Earlier identity-based arrangements could be stable, but state consolidation and political competition make scapegoating and coercion more likely. Jews, anti-Semitism, and expulsions in medieval/early modern Europe (Priority: 5/5): The discussion traces how Jews were used within fiscal systems as lenders and tax intermediaries, which made them economically useful but politically vulnerable. Expulsions often served ruler-noble bargains or guild interests rather than simple religious hatred alone. The Black Death and demographic shock (Priority: 5/5): Both guests treat the Black Death as a massive demographic shock that altered labor bargaining power, shifted urban networks, and reshaped European institutions. It is also used as a natural experiment for understanding wages, urban agglomeration, and regional divergence. Tolerance, liberal states, and the limits of ideas (Priority: 4/5): Koyama emphasizes that religious toleration emerged less from abstract philosophical arguments and more from political economy and the growing impossibility of enforcing uniformity. Ideas mattered, but mostly when filtered through the interests of power holders. Comparative state formation: Poland, China, Japan, Switzerland (Priority: 4/5): The conversation compares weak, fragmented states that often tolerated minorities by default with stronger states that could repress or integrate more effectively. China’s geography and steppe threats, Japan’s response to Western intrusion, and Switzerland’s cohesion and federal diversity all illustrate different state trajectories. Economic change, land redistribution, and the French Revolution (Priority: 4/5): Johnson argues that confiscating and auctioning church land in revolutionary France raised agricultural efficiency by lowering transaction costs and reallocating land to higher-value users, despite the coercive nature of the confiscation itself. Modern tolerance and future risks (Priority: 4/5): Both are cautiously optimistic about established liberal democracies but pessimistic about weak developing states. Koyama warns that tolerance is not automatic; it required long historical development and may not transfer easily to societies with different institutional foundations.

Key Arguments: Persecution often intensifies when states expand and face more internal heterogeneity; coercion is not just a function of hatred but of political incentives. Jews were frequently inserted into fiscal and credit systems, making them economically useful to rulers but easy targets for resentment and taxation. Expulsions were often politically strategic: rulers could trade a minority’s removal for support from nobles or guilds. The Black Death increased wages by sharply reducing labor supply, but more importantly it changed bargaining power and triggered institutional reorganization. The French Revolution’s auctioning of church land improved efficiency because low transaction costs allowed land to flow toward more productive owners. Durable liberal tolerance is not the same as mere absence of persecution; it requires a state committed to pluralism, general rules, and rights. Weak states can be tolerant by default because they cannot enforce conformity, but they do not reliably produce liberalism. Theories of toleration centered on intellectual debates alone are insufficient; printing, Reformation-era identity change, and political economy matter more. China’s persistent unity is explained partly by geography and steppe pressure, which pushed centralization and militarization. Modern liberal societies emerged slowly, and attempts to transplant their institutions rapidly into very different contexts may be destabilizing.

Data Points: Population loss during the Black Death: about 40% - Johnson and Koyama use this as the scale of the demographic shock in Europe Church land in France: up to 7% of land - Johnson’s example of confiscated church property during the French Revolution English Catholics targeted under Elizabeth I: up to 300 people - Koyama cites killings for being Catholic in 16th-century England England’s Test Acts repealed: 1828 - Used to show long persistence of religious exclusion after the Glorious Revolution Expulsion of Jews from England: around 1290 - Johnson discusses the political economy surrounding the expulsion Frankfurt Fettmilch Massacre: 1614 - Example of guild-driven anti-Jewish persecution French Revolution land redistribution period: around 1790 - When church land was seized and auctioned Samalas eruption: 1257 - Discussed as a major volcanic event affecting agriculture and politics Tambora eruption: 1815 - Used to illustrate climate shock in a more integrated European market Black Death dating: around 1347 - Introduced as the onset of the pandemic in Europe China reunification pattern: every couple hundred years - Koyama describes recurring fragmentation and reunification in Chinese history Perry’s arrival in Japan: 1853 - Marks the start of Japan’s crisis response to Western pressure

Pivotal Quotes: "There are basically three phases that Europe is going through." — Noel Johnson: Framework for understanding identity rules, market-based arrangements, and later state expansion/persecution "What we add to that is then the religious story. So that religion is at the heart of this rise of liberal states and it's at the heart of the rise of kind of these... shift from identity rules to general rules." — Mark Koyama: Summary of the book’s core contribution "I don't think we're going to head all the way back to a situation where... there is a general sense that's been absorbed into the culture, you know, that this is no longer a thing that is acceptable." — Noel Johnson: On optimism about tolerance in established liberal democracies

Implications: Tolerance usually emerges from hard institutional learning, not slogans. Strong but liberal states can protect pluralism; weak states often cannot. For policymakers, history warns against assuming tolerance can be rapidly imported or sustained without institutions, incentives, and broad social legitimacy.