Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: This episode is both a retrospective on Odd Lots’ origins and an in-depth profile of Bloomberg’s Tom Keene. The hosts revisit the show’s first episode, discuss how podcasting and production have evolved, and explore Keene’s background in markets, mathematics, and music. Keene argues that humility, real-world experience, and a long view matter more than certainty in finance and economics.

Main Topics: Odd Lots origin story and seven-year reflection (Priority: 5/5): Jill/Tracy look back at the podcast’s first episode, its launch in 2015, and how their recording setup and format have improved over time. Tom Keene as the inaugural guest (Priority: 5/5): The hosts explain why Keene was chosen: his status at Bloomberg, distinctive style, and ability to discuss markets, culture, and music in an engaging way. Markets, humility, and the lessons of losing money (Priority: 5/5): Keene says investment experience teaches more from losses than gains and fosters humility, which he sees as essential for good market commentary and decision-making. Mathematics, models, and critique of math phobia (Priority: 4/5): Keene discusses his math background and argues that finance and economics suffer from both overreliance on models in some contexts and widespread numeracy deficiencies in others. Music as part of Keene’s identity (Priority: 4/5): Keene traces his music background from childhood guitar lessons to the New England singer-songwriter scene, showing that his career has always mixed markets and arts. Macro politics, weak growth, and generational malaise (Priority: 5/5): Keene links political anger, populism, and market anxiety to chronically weak GDP growth and the lack of a normal economic backdrop for younger Americans. Bow ties, Bloomberg culture, and personal style (Priority: 3/5): The conversation uses Keene’s bow ties and Matt Winkler connection as a symbol of Bloomberg’s idiosyncratic newsroom culture and the personal branding of business media figures.

Key Arguments: Investment and market insight improve more from losses than from wins; downside experience builds humility and judgment. Economic and financial discourse often lacks sufficient mathematical literacy, especially at the undergraduate level and in applied business media. At the same time, some macro models became suspect after financial crises, so model certainty should be treated cautiously. Politics has become more volatile partly because growth has been chronically weak and younger people have not experienced a 'normal' economy. Media speed, Twitter, and constant information flow amplify political and market tensions, but underlying chronic stagnation matters more. Personal background in music and math can enrich a markets career by broadening perspective beyond pure finance. Good interviews depend on chemistry and originality; scripted talking points are a sign of weak media performance.

Data Points: Odd Lots first episode date: November 6, 2015 - The hosts identify the exact launch date while reflecting on the show’s origins. Podcast age at recording: More than 7 years - They note the show had been running for more than seven years by the time of this retrospective. Typical Stock Movers episode length: 5 minutes or less - Promotional copy describes Bloomberg’s Stock Movers as short audio reports. Bloomberg newsroom size: 3,000 journalists and analysts - Multiple promo segments cite Bloomberg’s global reporting network. Keene’s chart horizon: 60–70 years - He says his chart of the year looks at inflation-adjusted commodities over several decades. Macro Advisors third-quarter growth estimate: 1.5% - Keene references Macroeconomic Advisers’ GDP estimate to illustrate sluggish growth. Typical GDP target mentioned by Jeff Immelt: 3.2% - Keene says Immelt argued this level of GDP growth would solve many problems. Keene’s approximate age reference for career memory: 8 years old - He recalls getting his first guitar at age eight. Odd Lots first studio location: The same room as the current recording studio - The hosts say the first episode was likely recorded in the same room they are using now. Problematic episode timing: 3 a.m. - They joke that one episode may have been recorded in the middle of the night due to time zones.

Pivotal Quotes: "one part short-term stuff, one part long-term stuff, and one part blind luck" — Tom Keene: Keene summarizes how his career developed in media and markets. "you learn way more on the downside than the upside" — Tom Keene: He explains why losing money in markets taught him more than winning ever did. "the optimism has been shattered" — Tom Keene: Keene describes the mood of younger Americans and links it to weak growth and political anger.

Implications: The episode frames business journalism as personality-driven but intellectually serious. For listeners, it shows how markets, politics, and culture are intertwined—and why humility, context, and long-term thinking remain vital in finance and media.