Our 2024 Predictions + Jenny Slate Answers Your Hard Questions!

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: This holiday Hard Fork episode revisits the hosts’ 2023 predictions, makes new 2024 forecasts about Threads, AI chatbots, Google, labor organizing, Vision Pro, and election-related platform moderation, then answers listener “hard questions” with guest Jenny Slate. The discussion centers on AI ethics, workplace surveillance, social media shifts, and how people can keep an intentional, informed relationship with technology.

Main Topics: Year-end prediction recap and 2024 forecasts (Priority: 5/5): Kevin and Casey grade their 2023 predictions, then make new predictions at high/medium/low confidence across social media, AI, labor, mixed reality, and election politics. Threads, X, and the future of text-based social media (Priority: 5/5): The hosts argue that the media’s divorce from X is accelerating, while Threads, Mastodon, and Bluesky are becoming more important. Kevin predicts Threads will overtake X in daily users. AI chatbots, quality, and open models (Priority: 5/5): They discuss the likelihood of a 'lawless' LLM chatbot gaining mass adoption, and the possibility that Google will catch up to OpenAI in model quality while leveraging its distribution advantage. Labor, surveillance, and AI’s impact on work (Priority: 5/5): A major thread is whether workers will organize against AI-related job losses and workplace monitoring, including concerns about bossware, session replay tools, and biometric surveillance. Jenny Slate on tech anxiety and intentional use (Priority: 4/5): Jenny Slate joins to discuss her limited but purposeful relationship with tech, her discomfort with Instagram, and why stepping away from some digital platforms can be healthy. Listener ethics questions about AI and online behavior (Priority: 4/5): The panel addresses AI-written wedding vows, fake Amazon reviews, lab-grown human flesh, AI-generated porn, and whether people can live meaningfully while spending less time online. Identity, creativity, and synthetic selves (Priority: 3/5): A listener who built an AI clone of themself raises questions about identity dilution and selfhood in the age of generative media, which the hosts and Jenny frame as both creative and unsettling.

Key Arguments: Threads is likely to become the dominant text-based social platform in daily usage, while X continues to decay in quality even if it remains relevant for breaking news. A 'lawless' chatbot product could become popular because current mainstream AI products are too restrictive for many desired use cases, including erotic or controversial conversations. Google’s advantage may come less from raw model quality and more from distribution through Gmail, Chrome, Docs, and other products people already use. White-collar workers may begin organizing around AI-related job displacement and surveillance, extending labor concerns beyond Hollywood and into law, finance, media, and tech. Mixed reality and the metaverse could see renewed interest if Apple Vision Pro becomes a meaningful status symbol, even if adoption is limited by price. AI-written wedding vows are acceptable only if used as a draft and disclosed honestly; the real ethical issue is passing AI output off as personal sentiment. Fake Amazon reviews are morally flawed and distort the marketplace, but individual participants are also responding to a platform that incentivizes deceptive behavior. Workplace surveillance tools such as session replay and biometric monitoring raise serious privacy concerns and should be disclosed or challenged, especially through unions or internal advocacy. People can be informed and engaged without being constantly online, but completely disengaging from news is dangerous for civic life and democracy. Using AI to explore identity is not inherently bad; it can be a creative tool, but it may also intensify self-comparison, fluidity, and alienation.

Data Points: Hard Fork annual predictions: 3 confidence tiers - Hosts separate 2024 predictions into high, medium, and low confidence intervals. Threads overtaking X: Daily users prediction for 2024 - Casey predicts Threads will surpass X in daily users by year-end. Lawless LLM chatbot adoption: 10 million daily active users - Kevin predicts a guardrail-light chatbot will reach this scale in 2024. Google catching up to OpenAI: Medium-confidence 2024 prediction - Casey predicts Google will mostly close the quality gap with OpenAI while leveraging distribution. White-collar union organizing: Linked to AI-related job losses - Casey predicts new union activity in professions like law, finance, media, and tech. Vision Pro price: More than $3,000 - Used to argue the headset could still spark mixed-reality interest as a premium status object. TikTok ban prediction: Did not happen in 2023 - Kevin says he was wrong that TikTok would be banned in the U.S. that year. X exodus: NPR and Platformer no longer posting on X - Examples of the broader migration away from Twitter/X. Manifold market on AI-free Hard Fork episode: 10% probability - Listeners on prediction markets believed it was unlikely the show would do an episode without AI discussion. Manifold market on Casey dating an AI: 15% probability - A playful prediction market about Casey beginning to date an AI before June 2024. Student cheating case: 7 of 10 students stood their ground; 3 confessed - A professor reports suspected ChatGPT cheating on a midterm. Amazon review incentive: $60 Amazon bucks - A listener received a gift card offer for leaving a five-star review. Amazon review incentive: 60 Amazon bucks - A fake-review postcard promised a reward in exchange for a review. Potential ChatGPT age limit: 13+ with parent/guardian permission under 18 - The hosts note the service’s stated terms for minors.

Pivotal Quotes: "“Threads overtakes X in daily users.”" — Casey Newton: His high-confidence 2024 prediction about the social platform landscape. "“A lawless LLM chatbot will get 10 million daily active users.”" — Kevin Roose: His high-confidence prediction about demand for less-restricted AI companions. "“If you wouldn’t just tell your customers up front that you were doing this, you probably shouldn’t be doing it.”" — Casey Newton: His argument against covert session-replay surveillance on websites.

Implications: The episode suggests 2024 will be shaped by AI’s spread into work, media, and identity, while trust, consent, and transparency become central tests for platforms and employers. It also argues for informed, intentional tech use rather than total disengagement.