Picking stocks for 2025

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode is a playful 2025 FT Stock Picking Contest draft in which the hosts build long/short portfolios around expected Trump-era volatility, Fed pressure, gold strength, AI disruption, and M&A/cyclical recovery. Rob favors boring quality names, Aiden takes contrarian shorts and crypto-linked longs, and Alan leans into gold, banks, and select shorts in weakness and luxury.

Main Topics: 2025 market regime under Trump and Fed pressure (Priority: 5/5): The hosts frame their stock picks around a year likely defined by political disruption, pressure on the Federal Reserve, and greater volatility across markets and policy-sensitive sectors. Gold as a hedge against dollar and policy instability (Priority: 5/5): Alan argues that Trump’s attacks on the Fed and potential questioning of the dollar should support gold, including higher-beta junior miners and international producers. Big banks and financials as volatility beneficiaries (Priority: 4/5): Rob argues JPMorgan should benefit from a strong U.S. economy, volatility-driven trading activity, a better IPO market, and a favorable yield curve; Alan favors boutique banker Evercore for M&A pickup. AI, antitrust, and the Google short thesis (Priority: 5/5): Aiden shorts Google on concerns that model efficiency gains may advantage rivals, Google’s custom-chip strategy may disappoint, and antitrust remedies could force a breakup or asset divestitures. Industrial cyclicals, tariffs, and commodities (Priority: 4/5): Aiden considers shorting commodity and trading firms exposed to tariffs and China trade friction, while Rob highlights aggregates producer Vulcan Materials as a tariff-resistant domestic infrastructure play. Defensive quality versus speculative momentum (Priority: 4/5): The portfolio debate contrasts conservative picks like McKesson and JPMorgan with high-risk plays such as crypto-related equities and shorting weak companies like GAM and Kering. Lighthearted non-market recommendations (Priority: 1/5): In the closing segment, the hosts share personal ‘long/short’ lifestyle picks, such as plant spritzers, long johns, and Radio Paradise, reflecting the show’s playful tone.

Key Arguments: Trump’s push for lower rates and attacks on the Fed could weaken confidence in the dollar and support gold. Junior gold miners offer higher beta to gold prices, making them attractive if the metal continues its run. JPMorgan is positioned to benefit from both a strong economy and market volatility through trading, lending, and credit card businesses. Evercore could benefit from a rebound in M&A and deal confidence among CEOs and boards. Google faces a difficult combination of AI competition, custom-chip uncertainty, and major antitrust risk. Commodity and trading houses may suffer if tariffs and trade barriers expand globally. Vulcan Materials is a durable infrastructure play because aggregates are local monopolies with pricing power and limited tariff exposure. Crypto-linked equities could outperform if Trump delivers on deregulation and mainstreaming of digital assets. Private credit may stay strong in 2025 because the feared systemic implosion may not occur and investor demand remains intense. McKesson is seen as a steady healthcare beneficiary in a year when the sector may regain favor.

Data Points: Contest deadline: by this Friday at midnight - Rules for picking five stocks in the 2025 Financial Time Stock Picking Contest Portfolio size: 5 stocks - Each participant must select five names, long or short Holding period: no trading until the end of the year - Contest rules Contest duration: 31 January to 31 December 2025 - Aiden describes the contest timeline Gold price level cited: about $2,600 - Rob notes gold has moved well above prior demand-destruction levels Gold prior threshold: $2,100 - Earlier belief that demand would weaken above this level Google antitrust context: liability finding already made - Aiden refers to Google being found liable for monopolistic behavior Potential remedies: Chrome, Android, or ad ecosystem divestiture - Possible outcomes of Google’s antitrust case Short-run chart indicator: log scale - Alan notes GAM’s price chart has fallen so much that it shifts to log scale

Pivotal Quotes: "This is not investing advice." — Rob Armstrong: Opening disclaimer before the stock-picking discussion "I’m going to short Google." — Aiden Ryder: Aiden’s controversial main short thesis on AI and antitrust risk "I think it’s the cheapest of the Mag 7s. Their core business is actually safe from all these legal rearrangements." — Rob Armstrong: Rob explains why he goes long Google despite Aiden’s bearish case

Implications: The episode suggests 2025 may reward investors who balance policy-driven volatility with quality and defensives, while keeping an eye on gold, infrastructure, crypto, and antitrust-sensitive tech. The hosts see opportunities in market dislocation, but also plenty of room for bold contrarian bets.