Prepare for a ‘technology supercycle,’ with futurist Amy Webb

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Jeff Berman interviews futurist Amy Webb about how she became a strategic foresight expert and why organizations must prepare for a “technology super cycle” driven by AI, advanced sensors, and biotechnology. Webb argues the real story is convergence, not any single technology, and urges leaders to use data-backed scenarios, track signals, and borrow governance models from outside their own industry.

Main Topics: Amy Webb’s path to futurism: Webb explains how game theory, economics, a failed LSAT attempt, time in Japan, journalism, and a dissatisfaction with retrospective reporting led her to strategic foresight. Strategic foresight as a business discipline: She defines foresight as a data-driven method for seeing the future to make better decisions, manage disruption, and support long-range planning for organizations. The technology super cycle: Webb argues that AI, advanced sensor technology, and biotechnology are all general-purpose technologies, but their convergence is what will reshape business and society. Living intelligence and the role of sensors/biotech: She describes how sensor data enables richer prediction of behavior and how synthetic/generative biology could change materials, protein production, and supply chains. How leaders should act on future trends: Webb emphasizes tracking signals vs. trends, accepting uncertainty, building scenarios, and making insights immediately relevant and behaviorally compelling. Governance, regulation, and alternative frameworks: She is skeptical that traditional regulation alone can keep up with fast-moving technologies, and points to harmonized, cross-border, process-based approaches and data trusts. Optimism, urgency, and personal motivation: The conversation closes on how to inspire action without panic, plus Webb’s excitement for an upcoming gravel race and for an open future.

Key Arguments: Amy Webb became a futurist through an indirect path: academic training in game theory/economics, a law-school pivot after a panic attack on the LSAT, then reporting and founding a foresight firm. Strategic foresight should be treated as an operational capability, not just a thought exercise; organizations need to pair data with scenarios and uncertainty analysis. AI matters, but it is only one of three major general-purpose technologies shaping the future; advanced sensors and biotechnology are equally important. The key insight is convergence: improvements in one technology accelerate advances in the others, creating a flywheel that changes industries in combination. Sensor data expands prediction beyond text into real-world behavior, enabling more accurate models of what people and systems will do next. Biotechnology could transform materials and food production, such as synthetic materials and cultured meat, with major supply-chain and geopolitical effects. Traditional regulation is too slow and reactive to manage technologies like AI and biotech; better governance may require harmonized, alternative frameworks and incentives. Leaders and founders should look outside their own industry for analogies, because the best solutions are often already visible in other sectors. To move decision-makers, futurists must present futures in ways that are emotionally and operationally immediate, not abstract or overly probabilistic.

Data Points: Future Today Institute team size: 20 people - Webb says she and her team are the best at strategic foresight and that the firm has around 20 people. Years of publication momentum: A decade later - Used in Webb’s discussion of how AI only recently became widely recognized despite earlier signals. Paper length: 30 pages - Webb references a 30-page paper describing the phenomenon she calls living intelligence. Number of general-purpose technologies named: 3 - AI, advanced sensor technology, and biotechnology are identified as the three major technologies in the super cycle. Bioreactor output example: 250 tons of chicken meat - Webb uses cultured meat to illustrate how biotechnology could radically change production. Bioreactor tissue sample size: 2 grams - She notes that a tiny tissue sample could be used to grow large quantities of chicken meat. Singapore cultured chicken price: $17 - Webb says a chicken cutlet made from cultured meat has already gone on sale in Singapore for this amount. Climate threshold discussed: 1.5°C - She cites the widely repeated climate limit and argues it is not communicating urgency effectively. Alternate climate threshold discussed: 2°C - She notes the threshold has also been framed as 2 degrees Celsius in public discourse. Unbound race distance: 50 miles - Webb says she will do the 50-mile category in the gravel race as a first attempt. Unbound typical riding volume: 50 to 80 miles every weekend - She says this is her normal training/riding range, so the distance itself is not the issue. Capital One business investment example: $40,000 to $45,000 - A sponsor story describes a jewelry store owner making a major inventory investment with a business card.

Pivotal Quotes: "Strategic foresight is a data driven way of seeing the future for the purpose of making better strategic decisions." — Amy Webb: Webb defines the core discipline of her work early in the interview. "It’s the convergence we discovered that matters." — Amy Webb: She explains that the future is shaped less by isolated technologies than by their interaction. "If your desire in life is to exit, then you should be doing something else because your motivation is in the wrong spot." — Amy Webb: Webb argues founders should be driven by building something meaningful, not just by acquisition outcomes.

Implications: Founders, executives, and policymakers should treat foresight as a practical capability: track signals, model uncertainty, and design for convergence. The biggest opportunities—and risks—will emerge where AI, sensors, and biotech intersect.