Ramses and rockets: Commercial space adventures and the race to Apophis

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: This episode surveys a busy week in spaceflight: Boeing Starliner’s delayed astronaut return, Blue Origin’s New Glenn setbacks, and SpaceX’s Polaris Dawn delay and milestone spacewalk. It also covers ESA’s fast-moving RAMSES mission to study Apophis before its 2029 Earth flyby, and Kate Howes explains why asteroid deflection is more nuanced than simply “nuking” one. Bruce Betts closes with human-spaceflight health and record-setting time in space.

Main Topics: Commercial spaceflight turbulence: Matt Kaplan discusses Boeing Starliner’s extended astronaut stay, Blue Origin’s New Glenn test failures, and the way SpaceX continues to gain momentum amid industry growing pains. Starliner astronauts and return plan: The episode explains how Sunita Williams and Butch Wilmore were reassigned to return on a SpaceX Dragon in 2025 rather than on Starliner, illustrating NASA’s cautious approach to crew safety. Blue Origin New Glenn delays and mission knock-on effects: A New Glenn test article reportedly imploded in a warehouse, another test article ruptured/exploded, and the delays threaten downstream missions like ESCAPADE and possibly Artemis-related timelines. Polaris Dawn and commercial EVA: The upcoming Polaris Dawn mission is presented as the first commercial spacewalk, with heightened excitement and concern because it will venture farther from Earth and through stronger radiation environments. ESA RAMSES mission to Apophis: Asa Stahl describes RAMSES as a rapid-response asteroid mission designed to rendezvous with Apophis before its 2029 close flyby, enabling before/during/after observations of Earth’s effects on the asteroid. Asteroid defense and the limits of nuclear options: Kate Howes outlines why asteroid defense depends on size, composition, and warning time; nukes can work in limited cases, but kinetic impactors and early detection are usually better tools. Human spaceflight health and long-duration records: Bruce Betts covers radiation exposure, bone density loss, and the long-term study of astronauts, while noting record-setting cumulative and single-mission time in space.

Key Arguments: NASA’s conservative decision-making on Starliner reflects a safety-first culture for crewed flight, even if Boeing engineers believed the capsule could bring Williams and Wilmore home safely. Commercial space development is still a large experiment: setbacks are expected, and multiple launch/return systems are needed for resilience and redundancy. Blue Origin’s New Glenn failures are significant because they affect not just the rocket program but also contracted missions and broader commercial-launch competition. SpaceX is benefiting from rival delays, but the episode argues that the industry and NASA ultimately need multiple successful systems, not a single winner. RAMSES is scientifically valuable because Apophis will pass closer than geostationary satellites, letting scientists study tidal and magnetic-field effects on an asteroid in real time. ESA’s fast mission development model is plausible because RAMSES can reuse hardware, architecture, and expertise from Hera. Asteroid deflection is not one-size-fits-all: with enough warning, a small nudge works; with little warning, a nuclear standoff detonation may be viable, but depends on asteroid structure and international politics. Early detection and international planning are as important as deflection technology, because the real challenge may be coordination, funding, and legal authority rather than engineering alone. Long-duration spaceflight risks are real but manageable, with exercise and ISS shielding helping reduce bone loss and radiation exposure. Public fascination with “just nuke it” solutions is driven by pop culture, but planetary defense requires more careful, evidence-based approaches.

Data Points: Starliner crew duration: about 10 days originally planned - Williams and Wilmore’s intended stay on the ISS after launch in June Starliner new return date: well into 2025, likely February - Return planned on a SpaceX Dragon instead of Starliner Blue Origin delay: about 4 years behind schedule - Matt Kaplan describes New Glenn’s development timeline ESCAPADE launch window: end of this year / fall window - Mars mission potentially affected by New Glenn delays Apophis close approach: April 13, 2029 - Asteroid flyby date discussed by Asa Stahl Apophis warning horizon: less than five years away - Time remaining until the close flyby at the time of the episode ESA formal approval timing: next fall in November - RAMSES still awaiting final council approval Hera mission launch: October - Used as proof ESA can move quickly on deep-space missions Asteroid size comparison: about as tall as the Empire State Building and three times as wide around - Describing Apophis’s scale relative to spacecraft Nuclear deflection study: 99.9% of asteroid mass out of the way - A 2021 study cited for a ~100-meter asteroid detonated next to a nuke at least two months before impact Nuclear-deflection asteroid size: 100 meters / 328 feet wide - The asteroid size used in the cited study Potential impact lead time: at least 2 months - Timing required in the cited nuclear-deflection scenario SpaceX/Polaris Dawn radiation note: farther from Earth than anyone since Apollo - Mission expected to go beyond typical protected orbital altitudes Human-in-space record, cumulative: more than 1,000 days - Oleg Kononenko’s total time in space as of June 4, 2024 Human-in-space record, single mission: 437 days and 18 hours - Valery Polyakov’s Mir mission record ISS current crew change: from 7 to 9 - Starliner astronauts added to the station crew temporarily

Pivotal Quotes: "Space is hard." — Sarah Al-Ahmed / Matt Kaplan: Repeated refrain summarizing the technical difficulty and unpredictability of commercial and human spaceflight "They had the body of one of these Blue Origin new Glenn rockets ... and sure enough, the thing imploded." — Matt Kaplan: Describing Blue Origin’s warehouse mishap with a New Glenn test article "There are other options. We shouldn't call them better options because sometimes nuking it is the best option." — Kate Howes / Bruce Betts: Discussion of asteroid deflection methods and why nuclear use is situational rather than universally preferable

Implications: Commercial space is maturing, but reliability and schedule discipline remain major hurdles. Meanwhile, asteroid-defense readiness is becoming a real capability, driven by missions like RAMSES and better detection/deflection planning.