S8 Ep60: The planet has a problem with populism

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode argues that populism is rising because it converts real grievances—economic shocks, austerity, poor public services, inflation, and immigration pressures—into a simple anti-elite narrative. Sergei Guriyev and Catherine De Vries show how populist messages also reshape mainstream parties and threaten institutions, while warning that these dynamics can undermine sustainability policy unless governments communicate trade-offs better, deliver services, and use more inclusive democratic processes.

Main Topics: The rise of populism in politics: The speakers note that populist vote shares and governing influence are at historic highs in Europe and globally, with mainstream parties also shifting toward populist rhetoric to compete. What populism means: anti-elite, anti-pluralist politics: Populism is defined as a thin-centered ideology dividing society into the 'pure people' and 'corrupt elites,' often paired with a claim that one leader can represent a homogeneous public. Economic shocks and public-service deprivation as triggers: The discussion connects the 2008 financial crisis, austerity, and reduced public services in Italy and the UK to higher support for populist right parties. Immigration as a narrative amplifier: Immigration is shown to matter most when it is perceived as unmanaged or overwhelming; where integration works and inflows are smaller, populist support can fall. Inflation, price perceptions, and elite disconnect: Populists exploit inflation by focusing on grocery prices and living costs, framing central bankers and mainstream politicians as detached from everyday reality. Populism and the sustainability/climate backlash: Populists frame climate policy as an elite project that imposes costs on ordinary people, exploiting any perceived unfairness, disruption, or redistributive consequences. How to rebuild the social contract: The speakers propose clearer government communication, credible delivery, citizens' assemblies, ranked-choice voting, and regulation of social media as ways to reconnect institutions and voters.

Key Arguments: Populism is at an all-time high in both vote share and government participation, and it is also pushing mainstream parties to adopt more populist positions. The most useful definition of modern populism is the political-science one: society split between a pure people and a corrupt elite, with anti-pluralism built in. Policy failures and visible service cuts create fertile ground for populists because voters experience government as absent or unfair in daily life. In Italy, municipal service deprivation caused by austerity reform increased support for populist right parties, especially because voters reacted against lost services and taxation pressure. In the UK, GP closures and declining NHS access increased declared support for populist-right options tied to Nigel Farage. Immigration effects are nonlinear: small inflows with successful integration can reduce populist support, while large or poorly managed inflows raise it. People often vastly overestimate immigration levels, making them more susceptible to anti-immigration populist narratives. Inflation politics work because voters focus on price levels and blame government, while elites speak in technical terms about inflation rates. Populists can undermine climate policy by portraying expert-led sustainability measures as unfair, disruptive, or imposed by detached elites. To counter populism, governments must be more honest about trade-offs and use participatory institutions that restore trust and legitimacy.

Data Points: Populist party vote share in Europe: Rose from about 10–15% to 25–30% - Guriyev described the rise in populist vote share in the 21st century. Share of countries run by populists: Almost a quarter - Citing the Funke, Schularick, and Trebesch sample of 60 countries covering 95% of global GDP. Global foreign-born population share: 3% - Guriyev said the global share of foreign-born people has been stable for decades. Immigration increase in developed countries: About five percentage points - He said Europe and North America saw a dramatic rise in foreign-born population share. Economic cost of populism: About 1 percentage point of GDP per year - Based on the 2023 American Economic Review paper on populism and growth. Italian municipal reform threshold: 4,099 vs 5,001 inhabitants - De Vries explained the quasi-experimental design used to compare municipalities affected by service co-delivery reform. Support increase in Italy: 1.5% uptick for the populist right - Observed in municipalities affected by public service deprivation. Support increase in UK surveys: About 2% uptick - Declared support for Reform/UKIP/Brexit Party-related options among those affected by GP closures. Inflation episode: 6–10% year-on-year - Guriyev referenced recent developed-country inflation spikes. Public perception of immigration: Overestimated by a factor of 3 - He noted people think immigration is much larger than it is in reality. Time window in UK study: 2013–2023 - De Vries described the period for the GP closure and survey analysis.

Pivotal Quotes: "The world is divided into corrupt elite and pure people." — Sergei Guriyev: Definition of modern populism as discussed early in the episode. "Populism costs you something like one percentage point of GDP per year." — Sergei Guriyev: Summarizing evidence on the macroeconomic cost of populist leadership. "The green and nature agenda is driven by expert consensus, right? So you need to trust the experts. And populists say that experts are part of the corrupt elite." — Sergei Guriyev: Explaining why climate policy is vulnerable to populist backlash.

Implications: Populism thrives where people feel ignored, deprived, or misled. Better service delivery, clearer trade-off communication, stronger participation, and careful climate-policy design are essential to reduce backlash and protect sustainability reforms.