S9 Ep11: The next generation: Paris ‘25

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: This VoxTalks Economics episode highlights three early-career studies: French co-education reform and the gender wage gap, Mumbai slum redevelopment and failed displacement compensation, and lawfare in Pakistan’s anti-corruption courts. Together, they show how institutional design and timing shape long-run outcomes in education, urban policy, and judicial politics.

Main Topics: Co-education in France and female earnings (Priority: 5/5): Lucy Giorgi studies the staggered rollout of co-educational elementary schools in France after reforms beginning in 1957 and finds long-run labor-market effects for women and men exposed in childhood. Slum redevelopment in Mumbai (Priority: 5/5): Elishuba Philipp examines whether generous redevelopment compensation helps displaced slum residents leave informal housing, using electoral rolls to track moves over time in a megacity. Lawfare in Pakistan (Priority: 5/5): Ali Bakhtoa analyzes how politically motivated prosecutions in anti-corruption courts are used against opposition politicians and how judicial appointment rules affect this behavior. Identification with historical and administrative data (Priority: 4/5): All three studies rely on creative matching of archival, electoral, and administrative records to infer causal effects from policy variation. Policy design and unintended consequences (Priority: 4/5): The episode repeatedly shows that well-intentioned reforms can fail or backfire if implementation lags, incentives are misaligned, or institutions are not independent. Career reflections from young economists (Priority: 2/5): The episode closes with a discussion of research setbacks, showing the human side of doing empirical work and the role of breaks, advisors, and perspective.

Key Arguments: Early childhood exposure to co-education in France reduced the gender wage gap in adulthood by changing women’s occupational choices and raising their earnings, while men’s earnings fell slightly. The effect of co-education appears to operate through aspirations and job selection rather than through more schooling. The French reform is plausibly causal because adoption varied across departments and cohorts, with no pre-reform differences between early- and late-adopting areas. Slum redevelopment in Mumbai does not reliably improve residents’ living conditions because eviction often happens long before compensation or project completion. Even with generous promises of an apartment, most displaced residents remain in slums, often relocating nearby rather than moving to formal housing. Implementation failures are severe: many projects are never completed, and the lag between eviction and compensation makes credit-constrained households especially vulnerable. Lawfare in Pakistan is detected by comparing marginal election winners and losers who were already under corruption investigation, limiting concerns about post-election strategic filing. Opposition politicians are much more likely to be prosecuted and convicted, and politically controlled judicial appointments amplify this bias. Judicial independence reduces lawfare, suggesting institutional reform is an effective safeguard against political repression through courts.

Data Points: French co-education reform start: 1957 - Elementary education in France began moving toward co-education in the late 1950s; the transcript emphasizes that many people only think of 1975. French co-education completion: 1975 - The speaker notes that by 1975 co-education had become the recognized national norm in France. Gender wage gap change: about one-third decrease - Long-run effect of exposure to co-education on adult earnings gap between women and men in France. Student earnings effect: women’s earnings increase; men’s earnings decrease - Mechanism behind the reduced gender wage gap in the French study. Slum population share in developing-city settings: about half - General statement that roughly half of urban residents in developing countries live in slum neighborhoods. Mumbai slum share: more than 40% - The transcript states that more than 40% of Mumbai’s residents live in slums. Mumbai city population: 12 million - Used to underscore the scale of the redevelopment policy in Mumbai. Redevelopment eligibility year: 1995 - The Slum Rehabilitation Act gave compensation rights to residents already living in the slum when the policy was announced. Probability of living in the redeveloped slum apartment: 0.2% - Very small share of residents actually occupying the formal apartment they were promised. Success rate of getting residents out of slums: 6% - Average share of residents the policy moves out of slum living. Residents still in slums after compensation: 94% - Implied by the 6% exit rate in the Mumbai redevelopment study. Cases where eviction occurred without compensation: 40% - Redevelopment was not completed even though residents were cleared from the slum. Cases where both eviction and compensation occurred: one-third - Only about a third of cases saw both clearance and completion/compensation. Average construction project length: around 6 years - The redevelopment lag that creates vulnerability for displaced residents. Short slum transitions driving exits: less than 4 years - Residents who exit slums tend to make transitions on a shorter horizon than redevelopment takes. Lawfare effect on prosecution/conviction: 70% more likely - Opposition politicians in Pakistan are more likely to be charged and convicted for corruption. Pakistan study period: 1996 to 2018 - Administrative and electoral data window used to analyze lawfare. Judicial appointment reform in Pakistan: 2010 - Appointments were shifted away from the executive to a committee of senior judges. Judge term length: 3 years - Specialized anti-corruption court judges serve fixed terms before returning to the executive’s oversight process. Women judges in Pakistan sample: 4% - Very small female share in the judiciary sample, limiting gender analysis. Countries with presidentially appointed judges: around 60% - Broader comparative point about how common this appointment system remains.

Pivotal Quotes: "When you're exposed to co-education, there is a decrease in the gender wage gap, about one-third" — Lucy Giorgi: Summarizing the main finding of the French education study. "The short answer is no." — Elishuba Philipp: Answering whether Mumbai slum redevelopment successfully helps residents leave slum living. "Opposition politicians are 70% more likely to be charged and convicted for corruption compared to the base." — Ali Bakhtoa: Stating the core estimate of lawfare in Pakistan.

Implications: The episode suggests that policy outcomes depend less on intentions than on design and institutions: co-education can reshape aspirations, slum redevelopment needs immediate effective compensation, and judicial independence is critical to prevent courts being weaponized.