Episode Summary
Executive Summary: Tana Santos interviews Samer Saraf about his path from Jordanian/Palestinian roots through engineering, construction, Lehman, and private equity to founding Dubai-based Amwal Capital Partners. Saraf explains why the firm shifted from PE to public equities in MENA, how it uses a concentrated, research-intensive, locally informed approach, and why Abu Dhabi Ports exemplifies long-term value creation in Gulf markets. The conversation also covers regional market structure, regulation, and geopolitical risk.
Main Topics: Personal background and family values (Priority: 5/5): Saraf traces his upbringing in Jordan, his Palestinian heritage, and a family culture centered on education, perseverance, and entrepreneurship, especially shaped by his father’s rise from modest means. Education and early career in engineering and construction (Priority: 4/5): He explains how civil engineering at McGill and early construction-management work in Paris and Tahiti gave him analytical skills, cross-cultural exposure, and confidence before moving into finance. Transition from Lehman Brothers to the Middle East (Priority: 5/5): Saraf discusses joining Lehman’s real estate and CMBS business, witnessing market excess before the financial crisis, and then moving to Amwal AlKhaleej in Dubai as the region’s opportunity set expanded. Why Amwal Capital Partners moved from private equity to public markets (Priority: 5/5): He says the old PE model struggled in the region because family-controlled businesses resisted control transfer, liquidity was limited, and fundraising dried up after successive crises; public equities offered a better fit. MENA market structure and investment process (Priority: 5/5): Saraf outlines the firm’s focus on liquid GCC markets, especially Saudi and the UAE, and stresses concentrated portfolios, top-down plus bottom-up analysis, and on-the-ground diligence modeled on private-equity-style work. Abu Dhabi Ports as a flagship investment case (Priority: 5/5): He details why the firm bought and held Abu Dhabi Ports: logistics tailwinds, economic-zone synergies, capex-driven growth, acquisitions, improving free cash flow, and potential dividend/multiple expansion. Geopolitics, regulation, and the Gulf perspective (Priority: 4/5): Saraf emphasizes that local investors must track regulatory shifts, policy execution, and geopolitical risks such as Iran tensions, while noting Gulf markets are becoming more open and sophisticated over time.
Key Arguments: Educational and family discipline were foundational to Saraf’s career path; his father’s emphasis on passion, perseverance, and entrepreneurship shaped both his engineering training and eventual move into finance. Construction and engineering experience were not detours but formative preparation, teaching him practical problem-solving, technical rigor, and relationship-building across languages and cultures. Lehman’s real estate and CMBS platform gave him broad exposure and responsibility early, but the skill set was too narrow for his long-term entrepreneurial goals. The global financial crisis exposed market excess through tightening spreads and rising leverage, but the full systemic risks were not obvious to frontline bankers until the collapse unfolded. Private equity in the Middle East faced structural constraints: family owners often would not relinquish control, minority stakes lacked influence, blind pools had limited appeal, and fundraising deteriorated after multiple crises. Public equities better matched the region’s liquidity, governance evolution, and regulatory change, allowing Amwal to build a differentiated, research-intensive strategy in GCC markets. Amwal’s competitive edge comes from local knowledge, regulatory access, business-network intelligence, and private-equity-style diligence applied to public markets, especially small and mid caps. Concentrated portfolios are intentional: the firm seeks a small number of high-conviction ideas, with top positions often driving most of the portfolio’s risk and return. Abu Dhabi Ports illustrates how government-led industrial policy, free-zone development, acquisitions, and logistics demand can combine into a long-duration compounding story. Investors in the region still value dividends strongly, so monetization and deleveraging may be key catalysts for re-rating Gulf growth stocks. The firm avoids markets where it lacks an informational or network advantage, such as Turkey, preferring to focus on geographies where it can genuinely generate alpha. Reputation, ethics, and alignment are central to Amwal’s business model, including a fee structure that avoids transaction and monitoring fees beyond management fees.
Data Points: Podcast episode date: First podcast of 2026 - Opening remarks situate the interview as the first episode of the year. Samer Saraf at Lehman: 2005 to 2008 - He worked in Lehman Brothers’ real estate/MA businesses during the pre-crisis period. CMBS structured at Lehman: Over $2 billion - Saraf’s Lehman team structured more than $2 billion of commercial mortgage-backed securities. Construction career length: 3 years - He spent roughly three years in construction management before moving into finance. Age during construction career: Mid-20s - He was around 24–25 while working for the French construction group. Columbia Business School start year: 2003 - Saraf started CBS after receiving admission in 2002. Amwal AlKhaleej / launch timing: Early 2008 - He left Lehman after layoffs began and joined the regional private equity platform. Amwal Capital Partners test portfolio alpha: 20% alpha generation - The founding team tested the public-equity concept with a small proprietary brokerage account before launch. Test portfolio capital: $2 million to $3 million - Saraf says the team put in a few million dollars to run the strategy before formalizing the firm. AUM on equity side: Just under $3 billion - Current equity AUM is described as slightly below $3 billion. Total firm AUM: Around $3.5 billion - Saraf says total AUM including newer fixed-income/private credit efforts is nearly $3.5 billion. Current team size on equity side: 3 analysts plus one partner PM - He notes Ahmed as PM and three analysts supporting the equity business. Typical portfolio size: 26 to 28 names - The equity portfolio is now more diversified than its earlier 10–15-name concentration. Top five position weight: 40% to 50% of portfolio - The largest holdings account for roughly half the portfolio. Abu Dhabi Ports IPO year: 2022 - Saraf identifies the company as a direct listing in 2022. Abu Dhabi Ports capex plan: $15 billion equivalent through 2026 - Management planned heavy investment to expand the platform; he cites the figure in dirhams and converts it approximately. Abu Dhabi Ports 2025 revenue: 20 billion dirhams - He cites recent 2025 results, roughly equivalent to $6 billion. Abu Dhabi Ports revenue growth: 20% year-on-year - 2025 revenue increased 20% year over year. Abu Dhabi Ports EBITDA: 5 billion dirhams - He says EBITDA reached about $1.5 billion. Abu Dhabi Ports EBITDA margin: 24% - The company maintained strong operating margins while expanding. Abu Dhabi Ports net income: 2 billion dirhams - He states net income was roughly $700 million. Abu Dhabi Ports net income growth: 17% year-on-year - He cites year-over-year growth in earnings. Abu Dhabi Ports leverage: 4.4x EV/EBITDA - Leverage increased from IPO levels during the acquisition cycle. Abu Dhabi Ports IPO leverage: 0.3x EV/EBITDA - He contrasts current leverage with the much lower level at listing. Regional trading volume peak: 2.5 to 3.0 billion dollars per day - Saraf notes Saudi market trading volumes at their peak before later moderation. Recent Saudi trading volume: 1.6 to 1.7 billion dollars per day - He cites the recent daily turnover level after the pullback. Saudi/UAE stock universe: About 500 stocks - He estimates the core investable universe in the main GCC markets. Broader MENA universe: Over 1,000 stocks - He says the full region is larger but less liquid and therefore less relevant. NMC investment exposure: 50% write-down - He cites the firm’s loss on the UAE hospital group after fraud concerns emerged.
Pivotal Quotes: "the only thing you have is reputation. If you don't have your reputation, their businesses will shut down immediately." — Samer Saraf: He explains why trust, ethics, and alignment are central to Amwal Capital Partners. "we wanted to maintain a bit of that touch with the legacy of Amwal AlKhaleej" — Samer Saraf: He describes why the new firm retained the Amwal name after the private equity platform was restructured. "this company is growing at 15% annually" — Tana Santos (summarizing Saraf’s thesis): Used in the Abu Dhabi Ports discussion to frame the long-term valuation case.
Implications: The episode highlights how Gulf asset managers are building local advantage through regulation-aware, high-conviction investing. For listeners, the key takeaway is that public markets in MENA are becoming more liquid, but alpha still depends on deep on-the-ground work and geopolitical/regulatory vigilance.
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