School spending, excess deaths and billions of animals at Heathrow

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: This episode scrutinizes headline statistics in education funding, excess deaths, shoplifting, and Heathrow animal imports. It argues that official figures often depend on methodology: school funding looks flatter or weaker when sixth forms, capital spending, and local authority services are included; excess-death baselines were revised to reflect post-pandemic mortality changes; shoplifting claims are inflated by poor comparisons; and Heathrow’s “6.5 billion animals” are mostly tiny invertebrates, likely mites.

Main Topics: England school funding claims (Priority: 5/5): Tim Harford tests the Education Secretary’s claim of record real-terms per-pupil school funding. The discussion shows the government’s metric excludes sixth forms and capital spending, while broader IFS measures suggest long-run squeeze and only a return to around 2010 levels. Excess deaths methodology (Priority: 5/5): The program explains why ONS excess-death estimates changed sharply after revising the baseline to account for population growth, ageing, mortality trends, and pandemic distortions. The revised method is better for short-term shocks but less suited to diagnosing long-term health deterioration. Shoplifting and retail crime statistics (Priority: 4/5): Claims of an epidemic of shoplifting are examined against BRC survey data and police records. The survey appears to exaggerate increases because of pandemic-era comparison points and opaque methodology, while official crime data suggest a return toward pre-pandemic levels. Heathrow’s 6.5 billion animals (Priority: 4/5): A surprising statistic from The Economist is investigated. The vast majority of animals processed at Heathrow are not mammals or birds but invertebrates, with mites the leading suspect behind the billions figure. Broader lesson on statistics in public debate (Priority: 5/5): Across the items, the episode shows how changing definitions, time windows, and baselines can dramatically alter the story a statistic tells, even when the underlying reality is unchanged.

Key Arguments: The government’s school-funding claim is narrow because it excludes sixth forms, capital spending, and some local-authority-provided services, making the picture look better than a broader per-pupil measure would. IFS analysis suggests spending per pupil fell about 9% in real terms from 2010 to 2019 and is only now returning to around 2010 levels. The ONS revised excess-death baselines because a simple five-year average ignored ageing, population growth, and changing mortality rates. Excess deaths are useful for sudden shocks like pandemics or flu, but not for long-term health problems because the baseline adapts to new conditions. Retail survey figures can overstate shoplifting trends if they compare with pandemic years, when retail crime was artificially depressed. Police-recorded shoplifting, while imperfect, suggests levels are roughly back to pre-pandemic norms rather than having doubled. Heathrow’s huge animal total is almost entirely made up of invertebrates, likely mites, not glamorous wildlife imports. The episode repeatedly shows that statistical claims can be technically true yet misleading if the measurement frame is too narrow.

Data Points: School spending per pupil (real terms): fell about 9% between 2010 and 2019 - IFS measure covering ages 3-19, including sixth forms School spending per pupil: about back to 2010 levels by next year - IFS projection after post-2019 increases Government school funding measure: about 5% larger in 2024 than 2010 - Government metric covering ages 5-16 only School sixth form funding: around 25% cut in real terms - IFS highlighted this as a major omission in the government’s framing Capital spending on school buildings and repairs: about 25% lower in real terms - Average of the last three years compared with the late 2000s Local authority-provided services to schools: more than 50% fall in real terms from 2010 to 2019 - Includes educational psychology and SEN-related services Old excess deaths estimate for 2023: 31,000 - ONS estimate under the previous baseline method New excess deaths estimate for 2023: just 11,000 - ONS revised estimate after methodological changes COVID-death exclusion threshold: periods where more than 15% of deaths were COVID - Months removed from the ONS baseline model Duration removed from ONS model: 6 months in total across 2020 and 2021 - COVID-heavy months excluded from baseline construction BRC shoplifting estimate: nearly 17 million incidents last year - Retail consortium survey figure BRC previous year figure: 8 million incidents - Year-on-year comparison used by retailers Pre-pandemic BRC comparison: 4 million incidents in 2018-19 - Shows how pandemic-era comparison points inflate the apparent rise Police-recorded shoplifting trend: returned to about pre-pandemic levels - Graham Farrell’s assessment of the least-worst available official stat Heathrow animal total: 6.5 billion invertebrates - The dominant component of animal imports through Heathrow Heathrow animal imports excluding invertebrates: 44 million animals left - All other categories combined Fish and fish eggs at Heathrow: 31 million - Largest non-invertebrate category besides the total Cats processed at Heathrow: 4,247 - Example of pet imports in the breakdown Dogs processed at Heathrow: 8,000 - Example of pet imports in the breakdown Alpacas processed at Heathrow: 48 - Illustrative small mammal import count

Pivotal Quotes: "“We are funding our schools at the highest in our history at £60 billion a year.”" — Gillian Keegan: Education Secretary’s claim on BBC Breakfast about school funding "“It was a bit of an ad hoc method that worked OK when nobody took much notice.”" — Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter: Explaining the old ONS excess-deaths baseline method "“Without invertebrates, there are 44 million animals left... and 6.5 billion invertebrates.”" — Tom Coles: Breakdown of Heathrow animal imports

Implications: Listeners should treat headline statistics cautiously: definitions, baselines, and comparison periods can radically change conclusions. Policymakers and media should disclose methodology clearly, especially when numbers are used to justify claims about funding, crime, or public health.