Episode Summary
Executive Summary: David Roberts and Caroline Spears review Climate Cabinet’s 2025 election results, where 41 of 45 tracked races went their way. They argue the dominant story is anti-Trump backlash plus affordability concerns, with major wins in Georgia, Virginia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and local races. They also look ahead to 2026, expecting a wave year and more contested climate-affiliated races.
Main Topics: Climate Cabinet’s 2025 election performance (Priority: 5/5): Climate Cabinet tracked 45 races nationwide and won 41, far exceeding expectations in a year that began with pessimism after earlier setbacks. The group emphasizes it chose hard races, not easy ones, and sees the results as evidence that targeted local engagement can still matter. National anti-Trump mood and turnout dynamics (Priority: 5/5): Both speakers agree the election results were driven largely by a broad anti-Trump backlash. They note turnout surges, candidate overperformance, and signs that Trump’s unique ability to mobilize low-propensity voters may not transfer to non-Trump contests. Georgia PSC as a breakthrough climate-affordability race (Priority: 5/5): The Georgia Public Service Commission race, normally obscure and low-turnout, became a top-ballot fight and produced a 60-40 blowout for Democrats. Speakers tie the result to electricity affordability, utility rate hikes, and heightened Democratic turnout, while noting a second PSC race next year could create a Democratic majority. Virginia’s Democratic wave and clean-energy policy opening (Priority: 5/5): Virginia saw a gubernatorial flip to Abigail Spanberger and a huge House of Delegates shift to 64/100 seats. Speakers frame this as an opening to fully implement the Virginia Clean Economy Act and resist pressure to default to gas expansion in response to rate concerns. Local and down-ballot climate power in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Washington (Priority: 4/5): The conversation highlights New Jersey legislative primaries and retention of climate-friendly policy direction, Allegheny County’s importance for permitting and land use, Pennsylvania Supreme Court retention, and Whatcom County’s clean-air and fossil-fuel siting stakes. These races are portrayed as overlooked but consequential. 2026 outlook: affordability messaging, redistricting, and bigger stakes (Priority: 5/5): Spears expects 2026 to be another wave year and says Climate Cabinet will back 100 candidates, with roughly 25 already identified. The discussion stresses redistricting fights, state legislative majorities, and the need for a clearer policy agenda linking electricity affordability, housing, and transportation.
Key Arguments: Climate Cabinet’s model works because small investments in overlooked races can swing major climate-related decisions at the state and local level. The biggest 2025 driver was not just good candidate quality but a broad anti-Trump turnout surge that helped Democrats overperform across states. Trump’s electoral coalition appears less transferable outside his own candidacy; his brand does not reliably lift down-ballot Republicans in off-cycle contests. Affordability, especially electricity bills, became the most effective campaign frame, but it only works if paired with concrete clean-energy solutions. Solar plus storage, plus virtual power plants, are described as the fastest and cheapest ways to add grid capacity and lower costs. State and local offices matter because they control siting, permitting, land use, and utility regulation, which can accelerate or block clean-energy deployment. Redistricting is a structural battleground; without federal reform, state-level mapmaking will keep escalating, making state courts and legislatures critical. Climate politics must broaden beyond electricity to include housing and transportation affordability, or the message will feel incomplete to voters and lawmakers.
Data Points: Climate Cabinet races tracked: 45 - Total state and local races Climate Cabinet worked on in 2025. Climate Cabinet races won: 41 - Out of 45 tracked races, 41 went Climate Cabinet’s way. Georgia PSC Democratic vote share: 60% - Hubbard and Johnson won the Georgia Public Service Commission seats with 60% of the vote. Georgia PSC Republican vote share: 40% - Opponent share in the same PSC race. Georgia PSC margin: 0.48% - John McAuliffe’s Virginia House race is mentioned as a close win by this margin; used as an example of how small investments can matter. Virginia House of Delegates size after election: 64 of 100 seats - Democrats expanded their House majority dramatically in Virginia. Virginia House seat shift: 13 seats - Roberts describes the Virginia House result as a 13-seat flip, an extraordinary wave outcome. New Jersey governor performance: More than doubled Harris’s 2024 margin - Cheryl’s win is described as substantially outperforming Kamala Harris’s result in New Jersey. Number of 2026 candidate endorsements planned: 100 - Climate Cabinet says it will support 100 Moneyball Climate candidates next year. Climate Cabinet’s already selected 2026 candidates: About 25 - Spears says roughly 25 of the 100 planned endorsements are already chosen. States with majorities on the line in 2026: 5 states - Spears says 23 state races will determine majorities in five states. Total decisive state legislative races: 23 - The number of races that could determine majorities in those five states.
Pivotal Quotes: "A little bit of attention and money can make a big difference." — David Roberts: Summarizing Climate Cabinet’s strategy after John McAuliffe’s close Virginia win and the broader success of targeted down-ballot spending. "We are seeing more engagement from voters than we saw in years past." — Caroline Spears: Explaining that turnout rose versus comparable off-cycle elections, even though the dominant national mood was anti-Trump. "The cheapest form of electricity under the grid is solar plus storage." — Caroline Spears: Used to argue that affordability politics should point toward clean energy rather than gas expansion.
Implications: Climate politics is moving into local power centers: utility commissions, state legislatures, courts, and county offices. 2026 will likely be another wave year, but climate advocates need a stronger affordability narrative grounded in solar, storage, VPPs, housing, and transit.