Episode Summary
Executive Summary: The episode centers on SoftBank’s massive Vision Fund losses and Masayoshi Son’s public reckoning, then pivots to Jason’s public-market “J trading” experiment and a long interview with Nutrisense CEO Alex Skrdl on continuous glucose monitoring, prevention, and behavior change. The broader thread is how capital should be allocated in a down market, from venture portfolios to consumer health startups.
Main Topics: SoftBank Vision Fund losses and Masayoshi Son’s reset (Priority: 5/5): Jason dissects SoftBank’s $21.7B quarterly loss, Son’s dramatic presentation, and his shift from moonshot bets toward smaller, more disciplined investments after years of massive wins and losses. Venture capital discipline in a downturn (Priority: 5/5): The discussion contrasts overfunding and bubble behavior with the need to back winners, conserve dry powder, and triage portfolio companies into winners, survivors, and likely failures. Jason’s public-market ‘J trading’ experiment (Priority: 4/5): Jason reviews four initial stock trades—Stitch Fix, Amazon, Disney, and Warner Bros. Discovery—explaining the thesis behind each and using the experiment as a learning exercise rather than investment advice. SPACs and distressed public opportunities (Priority: 4/5): Jason argues the hated SPAC pile may contain one or more 10x–20x winners, with Opendoor among the names he wants listeners to evaluate using management quality, product love, and growth. Nutrisense and continuous glucose monitoring (Priority: 5/5): CEO Alex Skrdl explains how Nutrisense helps users track glucose, diet, sleep, and habits to improve weight loss, health, and diabetes prevention via coaching and monitoring. Preventive, sensor-driven healthcare and personal agency (Priority: 4/5): Jason and Alex broaden the Nutrisense conversation into a larger argument for quantified self tools, preventative health monitoring, and more personal control over health outcomes.
Key Arguments: SoftBank’s huge losses are evidence of both the power and danger of concentrated, late-stage venture bets during a bubble. Masayoshi Son’s best lesson is to move from emotional, oversized home-run swings to smaller, more systematic investments. In a down market, venture funds should stop supporting mediocre companies and concentrate capital on clear winners with real product-market fit. Founders should take money at high valuations but deploy it slowly and responsibly; Uber succeeded partly because it preserved war chest optionality. WeWork failed because it burned capital without staying true to a durable unit-economics model, unlike Uber or DoorDash. J trading is a deliberate learning exercise: Jason is trying to understand public markets by making transparent, thesis-driven bets. Disney, Amazon, and Warner Bros. Discovery are long-duration brand assets that Jason believes can compound if management monetizes them better. The SPAC wreckage may hide extreme asymmetry; hated names can produce outsized returns if management is strong and product-market fit is real. Continuous glucose monitoring can materially improve behavior, weight loss, and long-term metabolic health by making invisible patterns visible. Health care should shift from reactive treatment to continuous monitoring and prevention, similar to how cars, planes, and software are managed. Personalized data and coaching can change doctor-patient dynamics by giving patients more agency and better information. Startups fail when founders build too long before selling; early customer discovery and a bias toward action matter more than perfection.
Data Points: SoftBank Vision Fund quarterly investment loss: $21.7 billion - Reported loss for the quarter ending in June/July, discussed as one of the largest in SoftBank/Japan history SoftBank prior investment gain reversal: $59 billion - The earlier gain across the two Vision Funds was almost completely reversed over six months SoftBank market capitalization: $71 billion - Jason notes SoftBank’s public market value is far below its peak SoftBank buyback authorization: 400 billion yen (~$3.5 billion) - Planned share repurchase over the next year to bring market price closer to net asset value SoftBank share sales gain: $5.6 billion - Gain from selling holdings including Uber, Opendoor, Guardian, and Beike Uber stake sale gain: $1.5 billion - SoftBank sold its remaining Uber shares between April and July at an average of $41.47/share Uber sale average price: $41.47 per share - Average price SoftBank received when exiting the rest of its Uber position J trading positions: 4 trades - Jason’s public-market experiment includes Stitch Fix, Amazon, Disney, and Warner Bros. Discovery Stitch Fix position performance: +16.43% - Jason says the trade is up over 16% Warner Bros. Discovery position performance: -12% to -13% - Jason says this trade is down roughly this amount Amazon position performance: +6.5% - Jason says his AMZN position is up Disney position performance: +5% - Jason says his DIS position is up Amazon shares owned: 1,000 shares - Jason says this is his biggest position in dollar terms Warner Bros. Discovery shares owned: 3,000 shares - Jason says he is considering buying more Disney shares owned: 250 shares - Jason mentions his Disney position while discussing monetization ideas Nutrisense paying customers: 8,000+ - CEO says the company has over eight thousand paying customers Nutrisense revenue growth: $484,000 to $1.7 million+ quarterly revenue - Q1 2021 compared with current Q1 revenue, roughly 4x growth Nutrisense pricing: $200-$250/month plus $50 for dietitian - Subscription pricing discussed during the interview Nutrisense launch timing: 2019 - Company founded in 2019 Remote Demo Day: December 2020 - Nutrisense was featured in the first remote demo day before Jason invested Assure administration: 5,000+ transactions; $2.5B under administration - Sponsor mention during the episode Microsoft for Startups Founders Hub credits: Up to $150,000 - Sponsor offer highlighted at the top of the show
Pivotal Quotes: "So rather than aiming for the home run, but try to aim for a first base hit or second base hit, make sure that we have a good hit." — Masayoshi Son (translated): SoftBank’s CEO describing the shift from oversized moonshot bets to more disciplined investing "I became somewhat delirious. And looking back at myself now, I am quite embarrassed and remorseful." — Masayoshi Son: Son reflecting on his role in SoftBank’s bubble-era overvaluation and losses "The goal here is for me to learn. I am a neophyte at trading public equities." — Jason: Jason explaining the purpose of his transparent ‘J trading’ stock experiment
Implications: For founders and investors, the episode is a warning to conserve capital, back clear winners, and expect a shakeout that reallocates talent and money toward stronger companies. For consumers, it argues that sensor-based health tools like CGMs may become mainstream prevention infrastructure.
About This Week in Startups
Jason Calacanis covers startups, tech, markets, media, and all the hottest topics in business and technology. He also interviews the world’s greatest founders, operators, investors, and innovators.