Space Policy Edition: Our Equinox Space Policy Briefing

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: In this April 2020 Space Policy Edition, Matt Kaplan and Casey Dreyer assess how COVID-19 is disrupting the space sector, from venture capital drying up to potential long-term pressure on NASA's discretionary budget. They also preview a new historical planetary science budget dataset and recap a Planetary Society briefing on advocacy, Mars 2020, Europa Clipper, planetary defense, and the political uncertainty surrounding the 2020 election.

Main Topics: COVID-19’s impact on the space industry: The hosts explain that the pandemic is already disrupting space companies, slowing work, and likely reducing private investment, while future deficits may constrain public space budgets. NASA budget outlook and discretionary spending: Dreyer argues that massive relief spending and recession-driven deficits will likely intensify future battles over discretionary spending, putting pressure on NASA and other agencies. Planetary science budget history dataset: Dreyer presents a new data resource tracing NASA planetary science spending mission-by-mission from the 1960s to proposed 2021 budgets, intended as a public research tool. Planetary Society advocacy and member support: The discussion emphasizes the Society’s reliance on members and donors, especially during economic uncertainty, and its role in keeping long-term space goals visible. Mars 2020/Perseverance, Europa Clipper, and mission continuity: The briefing highlights the urgency of keeping major missions on schedule, especially Mars 2020's narrow launch window and Europa Clipper's launch-vehicle dispute. Planetary defense and public safety parallels: Bill Nye, Casey Dreyer, and Brendan Curry connect asteroid defense to current crisis planning, arguing that prevention is cheaper than response and that planetary defense remains essential. Election-year policy uncertainty: The panel notes that the 2020 presidential election and concurrent pandemic make NASA policy unusually hard to predict, with possible changes to priorities under a new administration.

Key Arguments: COVID-19 is causing immediate strain in the commercial space sector because companies cannot raise capital easily and cannot build spacecraft remotely. Long-term deficits from emergency spending will likely reduce room for discretionary spending, making it harder to grow or even sustain NASA’s budget. The space industry’s best response to the crisis is to be helpful, not tone-deaf or opportunistic, and to support national needs where its technologies are relevant. Planetary science funding history shows that budget decisions reflect priorities, and a public dataset can reveal how U.S. space priorities evolved over time. Mars 2020/Perseverance must launch in its 2020 window or face a 26-month delay and major added cost. Europa Clipper remains scientifically strong but is endangered by launch-vehicle uncertainty and timing delays, especially the legal requirement tied to SLS. Planetary defense should be funded continuously because threats are low-probability but high-consequence, and early prevention is far cheaper than emergency response. The Planetary Society’s education and advocacy programs are likely to remain important because NASA EPO and informal science education help build the future STEM workforce.

Data Points: New U.S. unemployment registrations: 6 million - Cited by Casey Dreyer as a sign of the scale of the COVID-19 economic shock. Unemployment registrations the week before: 3 million - Used to show the rapid acceleration of job losses. U.S. economic relief package: $2.2 trillion - Referenced as necessary emergency spending that will increase deficits. NASA planetary science budget (recent peak level): $2.7 billion - Described as the current approximate level for planetary science funding. Planetary science funding peak in 1974: Nearly $3 billion adjusted for inflation - Historical high point in Casey Dreyer’s new budget dataset. Viking program share of 1974 peak: $2 billion of nearly $3 billion - Illustrates how dominant Viking was in the 1974 planetary science budget. NASA FY2021 proposed budget: $25.5 billion - White House request for NASA discussed during the briefing. White House five-year NASA projection peak: Almost $28 billion in 2023 - Shows the administration’s planned growth trajectory before COVID-19 impacts. Planetary Society advocacy day participants: More than 100, nearly 115 people - Members traveled to Washington, DC for the annual advocacy event. States represented in advocacy day: 28 states - Shows broad national participation in the Society’s advocacy event. Congressional offices visited: Over 160 offices - Scope of the Society’s in-person advocacy efforts in Washington. Mars 2020 launch window: Starting July 17, 2020; about 3 weeks long - Launch window emphasized as critical for Perseverance. Mars launch reattempt delay if missed: 26 months - Delay to the next Earth-Mars transfer opportunity if Mars 2020 misses its window. Planetary science budget growth from prior low period: From about $2.7 billion to 2.66 billion (rounds to 2.7) - Used to show the budget remains relatively strong despite a slight dip. Private investment in space: $5.8 billion - Highlighted as concentrated in a few large companies, mostly late-stage funding. Cost estimate for a dedicated asteroid-survey mission: About $450 million - Used in a discussion of planetary defense economics. Annual planetary defense program spending: $150 million to $160 million in 2019 - Compared against the cost of a dedicated survey mission.

Pivotal Quotes: "Everything we do out in space ultimately depends on what we do here on Earth." — Casey Dreyer: He links the success of space exploration to the health and stability of people and institutions on Earth during the pandemic. "Now is not the time to engage your lawmakers on space issues." — Casey Dreyer: He warns that space advocacy must be timed carefully during the COVID-19 crisis to avoid sounding out of touch. "We don't want the Earth to get hit with an asteroid. It is, as the hilarious saying goes, a very low probability event with very high consequences." — Bill Nye: He explains why planetary defense should be treated as a serious and ongoing priority.

Implications: Listeners are urged to stay healthy, support space organizations if possible, and recognize that COVID-19 may reshape both private and public space funding. Long-term missions and planetary defense still matter, but advocacy must be strategic and patient.