SpaceX IPO: Why This Hedge Fund Manager is Fading the Hype | Moez Kassam

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Anson Funds CIO Moez Kassam frames the market as a contrarian playground where chaos creates opportunity. He argues the biggest near-term setups are SpaceX IPO mechanics, crowded AI/semis, software overselling, cannabis descheduling, and renewed interest in crypto and private credit. His core edge is reading sentiment, supply/demand, and deal structure rather than making static macro calls.

Main Topics: Contrarian investing amid market chaos (Priority: 5/5): Kassam says Anson’s edge comes from finding opportunities where sentiment is extreme and investors are crowded to one side. He repeatedly emphasizes flexibility, pivoting, and using sentiment shifts as trading signals. SpaceX IPO mechanics and short/bear-bull setup (Priority: 5/5): The conversation spends substantial time on the rumored SpaceX IPO: possible low float, lockup uncertainty, index inclusion, and how supply/demand could create either a squeeze or selling pressure depending on mechanics. AI, semis, software, and valuation rotation (Priority: 4/5): He views AI as real and transformative, but says software has been indiscriminately sold and could present opportunities if free cash flow remains intact. He warns that rich valuations in AI-linked names could force rotation from other parts of the market. Cannabis descheduling as a catalyst (Priority: 5/5): Kassam turns bullish on U.S. cannabis after descheduling developments and a DEA licensing process, arguing that federal illegality has distorted taxes, banking, interstate commerce, and valuations. Crypto sentiment, DATS, and selective re-entry (Priority: 4/5): He says crypto sentiment has improved markedly with a more supportive political and regulatory backdrop, but he remains tactical—having previously exited digital asset treasury trades when sentiment got too crowded. Media, energy/shipping, gold, and private credit as sentiment trades (Priority: 3/5): He briefly flags opportunities in hated or misunderstood sectors: media assets, energy/shipping due to geopolitical pricing, gold after conference-driven euphoria, and private credit after negative sentiment and attractive yields.

Key Arguments: Markets are driven by supply and demand, but the biggest edge comes from reading when supply or demand will change due to IPO mechanics, index inclusion, or sentiment extremes. SpaceX could be exceptionally tradable because its float, lockups, and index inclusion may create a rare supply/demand imbalance; the day before index rebalance may be better to sell than the inclusion day itself. AI is a real economic force, but many adjacent names are richly valued; capital may rotate out of Mag 7/AI beneficiaries into other parts of the market to fund new public offerings. Software may be oversold rather than broken; companies with recurring free cash flow and moats could rebound even if AI eventually disrupts the category. Cannabis could see a major rerating if federal descheduling and DEA licensing proceed, because banking, tax treatment, interstate commerce, and custody restrictions would improve materially. Crypto is more constructive than a year ago due to regulatory and political tailwinds, but timing remains critical because sentiment can swing from euphoric to crowded very quickly. The right time to buy is often when everyone says an area is dead, and the right time to exit can be when everyone starts asking about it. Private credit looks attractive when sentiment is negative because the assets are backed by collateral and offer double-digit yields, with the main issue being liquidity and timing rather than credit quality.

Data Points: SpaceX implied valuation: $2 trillion - The hosts repeatedly reference a rumored SpaceX valuation at IPO. SpaceX free float: Minimum of $50 billion - Kassam says the free float could still be very large even if the stock is a small percentage of the company. Potential underwriters: About 5 big investment banks - He says five major banks are reportedly involved as cornerstone underwriters. SpaceX index inclusion timing: 10th day of trading - Kassam says the NASDAQ effectively looks like it will add the IPO on the 10th day. SpaceX process timeline: About 45 days until expected process completion - He says they are roughly 45 days away from the rumored launch window around Elon Musk’s birthday in June. Public marketing window: 30 days before trading - He says the public process/marketing starts about a month before the IPO. Cannabis stock reference move: 70%+ down - He notes many cannabis names are down 70% or more from prior highs. MSOS ownership: Second largest owner on the 13F - Kassam says Anson is the second-largest owner of the NASDAQ-traded cannabis ETF MSOS. MSOS upside estimate: 400% in a couple of years - He says the ETF could have substantial long-term upside if the regulatory thesis plays out. Digital asset treasury investment: Over $1 billion - He says Anson put more than $1 billion into digital asset treasury vehicles last year. AI/quantum timeline from Jensen: 5 to 10 years - He references Jensen Huang’s skepticism that quantum will be disruptive in the near term. Private credit yields: 10% to 15% - Kassam cites current yields as attractive in a negative sentiment backdrop.

Pivotal Quotes: "We find clarity in chaos." — Moez Kassam: Describing Anson Funds’ investment philosophy early in the interview. "The best day to sell this thing, in my opinion, if you're holding it, is on day nine. Because day 10 is when the rebalance happens." — Moez Kassam: Explaining the rumored SpaceX IPO/index inclusion trade setup. "If everyone says software is over... it's time to look there because, again, stocks move as a function of supply and demand." — Moez Kassam: On his contrarian framework for software investing.

Implications: The interview highlights a market where event-driven mechanics, sentiment extremes, and policy catalysts matter as much as fundamentals. For listeners, the message is to watch crowding, not headlines; the biggest opportunities may be in hated sectors or structurally misunderstood deals.