Episode Summary
Executive Summary: Ben Carlson and Michael Batnick interview David Shassler of VanEck about the VanEck Real Assets ETF (RAAX), arguing that real assets are benefiting from a new regime of inflation, debt, AI-driven infrastructure spending, and geopolitical de-dollarization. Shassler frames real assets as a diversified portfolio response to scarcity, not just an inflation hedge, and sees a multi-year capex cycle ahead.
Main Topics: Why real assets are winning in the new regime (Priority: 5/5): Shassler argues post-COVID markets entered a new environment favoring diversification, scarcity, and hard assets, driven by inflation, fiscal excess, and geopolitical instability. What counts as a real asset (Priority: 5/5): He defines real assets in three buckets: resource assets/commodities, assets with embedded scarcity like gold, and income-generating real assets such as infrastructure and energy-related assets. AI as a driver of real-asset demand (Priority: 5/5): The discussion links AI adoption to massive buildouts in energy, infrastructure, and critical minerals, with real assets needed to clear bottlenecks for productivity growth. Gold, silver, and scarcity (Priority: 4/5): Gold is described as the ultimate store of value and silver as a smaller, more volatile market with industrial utility; both are viewed through scarcity rather than pure inflation. De-dollarization and reserve asset concerns (Priority: 4/5): Shassler connects dollar weaponization, rising distrust in U.S. policy, and central-bank reserve diversification to sustained gold demand. How RAAX is constructed (Priority: 4/5): RAAX is a fund-of-funds using macro, optimization, and momentum/mean-reversion signals to build a stable, diversified real-asset portfolio. Crypto versus real assets (Priority: 2/5): He rejects including crypto in RAAX, drawing a distinction between digital scarcity and traditional real assets, while acknowledging Bitcoin’s gold-like appeal to some allocators.
Key Arguments: Real assets are being supported by a structural regime shift after COVID, not just by short-term inflation spikes. AI is bullish for real assets because it requires more electricity, infrastructure, critical minerals, and ongoing capex to scale. Gold is rising because of scarcity, debt, deficits, and reserve-asset concerns, not simply because inflation is high. The gold bull market is still relatively early compared with prior cycles, with room for additional upside and corrections along the way. Central banks and foreign governments are diversifying away from dollar dependence after seeing the U.S. weaponize reserves against Russia. RAAX is designed to provide a one-stop, diversified exposure to multiple real-asset segments rather than a single commodity bet. The fund’s construction combines historical macro judgment, volatility minimization, momentum, and mean reversion to keep exposures balanced. AI may prove more disruptive and faster-moving than prior general-purpose technologies, creating a prolonged investment cycle in supporting assets.
Data Points: RAAX gold weight: 23% - Approximate portfolio exposure to gold as of February 6, per the guest. RAAX commodities weight: 18% - Approximate exposure to broad commodities in the ETF. RAAX infrastructure weight: 11% - Approximate exposure to infrastructure holdings. RAAX energy income weight: 8% - Approximate exposure to energy income assets. RAAX energy weight: 6% - Approximate exposure to energy assets. RAAX natural resources weight: 4% - Approximate exposure to natural resources. RAAX current gold bull market gain: ~200% - Shassler’s estimate of gold’s rise since the current bull market began accelerating in 2022. Gold bull market gain in the 1970s: ~500% - Historical comparison used to argue the current cycle may have more room. Gold bull market gain in the early 2000s: ~600% - Historical comparison used to frame the current rally. Money supply increase after COVID: 42% - Guest cites overnight money printing as a catalyst for inflation and real-asset demand. Inflation period cited by hosts: Sub-3% for roughly 18 months - Hosts push back that inflation has normalized compared with the 2021 spike. Gold corrections in prior bull markets: Five corrections of 10%+ in the 1970s and 2000s - Used to argue current gold volatility is normal within bull markets. Current gold bull-market corrections: Two corrections of 10%+ - Shassler says gold is behaving normally within a bull market.
Pivotal Quotes: "“What if the fact that we have all this innovation going on in AI, there’s going to need to be a huge build out. There’s going to need to be all this energy and it’s going to improve growth because it improves productivity.”" — Michael Batnick / discussion framing: Sets up the interview’s core thesis that innovation and real-asset demand can rise together. "“If you’re bullish on AI and you believe that’s going to happen, well, then you’re bullish on infrastructure. You’re bullish on infrastructure development and you’re bullish on energy.”" — David Shassler: Explains why AI adoption should benefit real assets that support compute, power, and buildout. "“How do you know money’s broken? Money is broken because every time you reach into your pocket to spend, you buy less and less.”" — David Shassler: Summarizes his view that fiat debasement and purchasing-power loss are central to the real-assets thesis.
Implications: The episode argues investors should treat real assets as a strategic portfolio sleeve tied to scarcity, capex, and geopolitical risk. If AI and reshoring accelerate, demand for energy, metals, infrastructure, and gold may stay elevated for years.
About Animal Spirits Podcast
Animal Spirits is a show about markets, life, and investing. Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, listening to and watching. Look for new episodes every Wednesday morning. See our disclosures here - https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/