The Barnett Formula

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: This episode of More or Less examines how statistics can mislead or clarify politics and science, explaining the Barnet formula, debunking an overstated claim about young Scottish referendum voters, unpacking how astronomers know the sun’s distance, correcting political spin on Labour’s deficit target and NHS plans, and clarifying what “29,000 air pollution deaths” really means. It ends with a coincidence story and a brief historical correction.

Main Topics: The Barnet formula and devolved funding (Priority: 5/5): Tim Harford explains that the Barnet formula governs changes to devolved budgets in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, not total spending, and adjusts for population and devolution levels. Scottish referendum youth voting claim (Priority: 5/5): The programme questions the widely repeated claim that 71% of 16- and 17-year-olds voted Yes, noting it was based on only 14 young respondents in an Ashcroft poll. How we know the sun’s distance and size (Priority: 4/5): A listener question leads to an explanation of using planetary orbits, Kepler/Newton laws, and radar ranging to determine the Earth-Sun distance. Ed Balls and the deficit (Priority: 5/5): The show clarifies that Labour’s promise to get the current budget into surplus is not the same as eliminating the entire deficit, since borrowing for investment could continue. NHS spending and the Thatcher comparison (Priority: 4/5): The episode checks whether Ed Miliband’s proposed £2.5bn NHS pledge is small relative to the English NHS budget and compares it with Thatcher-era real-terms increases. Air pollution mortality figures (Priority: 5/5): The programme explains that 29,000 annual deaths is a modeled estimate of lost life years, not 29,000 death certificates, and warns against double counting and misleading comparisons with the Great Smog. Coincidences and a historical correction (Priority: 2/5): Listeners share coincidence stories, and the show notes a correction about Whitby/Frankenstein versus Dracula, closing the series on a lighter note.

Key Arguments: The Barnet formula affects incremental funding changes, not the entire distribution of public spending. Differences in devolved spending per person are driven by historical baselines, devolution status, population changes, and welfare spending, not just Barnet alone. The 71% Yes figure for 16- and 17-year-olds is statistically shaky because it came from only 14 respondents and may be a sampling fluke. Planetary distances can be inferred from orbital periods and radar ranging, showing science can solve apparently circular measurement problems indirectly. Ed Balls’ target was a current-budget surplus, which still allows borrowing for capital investment; it is not a promise to eliminate all borrowing. Ed Miliband’s £2.5bn NHS pledge is about 2%-3% of the English NHS budget, smaller than Thatcher-era average real-terms increases. The “29,000 deaths” from air pollution is a public-health modeling construct based on lost years of life, not a count of identifiable acute deaths. Comparing air pollution deaths with the Great Smog is misleading because the exposures, timescales, and concentrations were very different.

Data Points: Scotland population share for Barnet purposes: 10.03% of England’s population - Used to calculate devolved grant changes under the Barnet formula Wales transport devolution: 73.1% devolved - Example of how Barnet adjusts for devolved responsibilities Current per-person public spending: £8,500 England; £9,700 Wales; £10,200 Scotland; £10,900 Northern Ireland - Illustrates spending disparities often blamed on Barnet Sample size for 16-17 referendum voters: 14 respondents - Lord Ashcroft poll basis for the 71% Yes claim Yes votes among 16-17 respondents: 10 of 14 - What the 71% figure actually represents in the sample Labour’s alleged deficit figure: £75 billion - Ed Balls’ statement about the size of the deficit Projected investment spending: £28 billion in 2018-19 - Amount that could still be borrowed under a current-budget surplus target English NHS budget: About £110-112 billion per year - Basis for judging the size of Miliband’s £2.5bn pledge Ed Miliband NHS pledge: £2.5 billion - Proposed funding increase for the NHS NHS share of pledge: Less than 3% - Approximate proportion of the English NHS budget Thatcher NHS increase: More than 3% per year in real terms - Average annual real-terms increase under Margaret Thatcher Coalition NHS real increase: 0.66% per year - Average annual real-terms increase from 2010-11 to 2015-16 planned spend London share of million-pound homes: 79% of 108,000 homes over £2m - Used to evaluate Boris Johnson’s claim that mansion tax is a tax on London Homes over £2m in London: 85,000 homes - Breakdown of potential mansion tax liability in the capital Total homes in London: 2.6 million properties - Shows that only a small fraction of London homes would be affected Share of London homes affected: 3.3% - Proportion of London properties above £2m Air pollution estimate: 29,000 deaths annually - Equivalent modeled burden of long-term exposure in the UK Alternative air pollution metric: 340,000 years of life lost per year - COMIAP preferred measure of total burden Equivalent life expectancy loss: Six months shorter - One way to express the 340,000 years of life lost Alternative interpretation of burden: 200,000 people dying about two years earlier - COMIAP alternative framing of the same data Equivalent phrasing used in report: 29,000 people each dying 11.5 years early - Another expression of the same modeled burden Radar-ranging distance to the sun: 150 million kilometres - Rounded figure given by the astronomer More exact sun distance: 149,500,000 km - More precise value mentioned in passing

Pivotal Quotes: "What we do is we start with the distance to a planet, so let's say Mars, and that's what's going to help us work out what the distance to the sun is." — Andrew Ponson: Explaining how astronomers determine the Earth-Sun distance indirectly "That isn't Mr Balls' target. Rather than try and eliminate the entire deficit, what he said that a Labour government would try to do would be to eliminate the current budget deficit." — Carl Emerson: Clarifying Ed Balls’ fiscal pledge "The 29,000 and the 200,000 are in a way two different expressions of the same thing. You wouldn't add them together." — Dr Heather Walton: Explaining why air pollution figures should not be double counted

Implications: Listeners should treat political and scientific numbers cautiously: many headline figures are shorthand, estimates, or partial measures. Understanding definitions, samples, and denominators is essential before drawing conclusions or comparing claims.