The end of OpenAI, and other 2026 predictions

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode is a year-end Vergecast prediction roundtable where David Pierce, Joanna Stern, and Eli Patel review their 2025 forecasts, then make bold 2026 bets across Apple, EVs, Google/AI, Waymo, TikTok, GTA 6, OpenAI, and Siri. The discussion blends self-scoring, industry critique, and humor while highlighting uncertainty, platform churn, and the limits of current AI hype.

Main Topics: Review of 2025 predictions (Priority: 5/5): The hosts revisit last year’s mild/medium/spicy predictions, score them, and debate partial credit for trends like Matter adoption and iPadOS becoming more Mac-like. Apple’s 2026 product and brand trajectory (Priority: 5/5): Joanna predicts a foldable iPhone, while the group debates pricing, mainstream appeal, and whether Apple’s broader product direction and Siri overhaul could reshape the company’s reputation. AI backlash, creator platforms, and OpenAI risk (Priority: 5/5): Eli argues AI slop will force platforms to label/filter content and predicts OpenAI could fail as its business model and product strategy weaken; the group debates whether AI’s ceiling and economics are reaching limits. Waymo safety, normalization, and an eventual crash event (Priority: 4/5): Joanna forecasts a serious Waymo incident in 2026, prompting discussion of safety data, public backlash, insurance/liability, and how autonomous vehicles will be judged after a high-profile failure. Electric vehicles and market recovery (Priority: 3/5): David predicts a modest EV comeback after tax-credit volatility, citing lower-priced models, used EV value, and consumer preference for EV driving experience. GTA 6 as a cultural and economic event (Priority: 3/5): David predicts GTA 6 will become a massive pop-cultural phenomenon or a major failure, with the hosts joking that it will dominate attention and be hard for non-gamers to understand. TikTok ownership and regulatory stasis (Priority: 3/5): The group discusses the possibility that nothing changes with TikTok in the next year, but leans toward continued political maneuvering rather than a final sale or shutdown.

Key Arguments: 2025 was unusually poor for prediction accuracy, so the group treats last year as a wash and uses it to calibrate 2026 forecasts. Apple may finally ship a foldable, but the bigger story would be media and fan backlash over price and unclear use cases rather than immediate mass adoption. EV demand likely rebounds once tax-credit distortions pass and more affordable models arrive, especially as used EVs remain strong value propositions. Social platforms are likely to be flooded with AI-generated content, pushing them toward labeling, filtering, and user controls to avoid alienating audiences and creators. A new creator platform could emerge by positioning itself as a human-first alternative to algorithmic AI slop, though network effects and user acquisition remain major barriers. Waymo’s expanding footprint makes a major incident increasingly likely; the ensuing debate will center on responsibility, safety, and insurance rather than whether autonomy is technically real. OpenAI is vulnerable because its product strategy is unclear, its business depends on expensive inference, and its core promise assumes capabilities current LLMs may not reach. Siri could become dramatically better if Apple integrates a stronger model layer, but a truly compelling Siri would create new emotional and reputational risks for Apple. Apple may be entering a bad stretch due to executive turnover, weak product novelty, antitrust pressure, and its dependence on optimizing supply chains rather than inventing new categories. GTA 6 is expected to become either an unprecedented cultural event or an enormous flop, with the hosts betting heavily on the former. TikTok remains a political football; even if ownership doesn’t change, the issue will keep resurfacing in elections and policy fights.

Data Points: 2025 prediction count per host: 3 - Each host made three predictions last year: mild, medium, and spicy. Prediction scoring for 2025: By and large, very bad - The hosts characterize last year’s forecast performance as broadly unsuccessful. Joanna’s 2025 mild prediction: Posting to a million social accounts - She was judged correct on the continued proliferation of social posting targets. Joanna’s 2025 spicy prediction: Touchscreen Mac or iPad with Mac OS - Not literally true, though they gave partial credit because iPadOS moved closer to macOS. Neil’s 2025 mild prediction: Alexa Plus will be fine - The group frames this as basically available and not disastrous, but not a clear success. Neil’s 2025 medium prediction: Walmart buys TikTok - Did not happen; TikTok ownership stayed unresolved. David’s 2025 mild prediction: Cable TV pretty much totally dies - He claims this happened faster than expected. David’s 2025 medium prediction: AI gadget that actually kicks ass becomes a giant hit - He says this was a major miss. David’s 2025 spicy prediction: We give up on Matter - He lost the prediction, though Matter became the default standard for much smart home hardware. Waymo usage in 2026 forecast discussion: Waymo’s fleet expected to roughly double over the next year or two - Used to justify why a major incident becomes more likely. Waymo time spent by Joanna: About 4 weeks - She reports spending roughly four weeks in Waymos in 2025. Humanoid robot application time: 25 minutes - Joanna says she spent about 25 minutes applying for the Sunday Robotics in-home beta. Prediction category: Mild / medium / spicy - The entire segment is structured around three levels of forecast intensity. EV tax credit effect: Sales spiked then crashed - Used as the basis for predicting a modest EV rebound next year. TikTok extension cycle: 90-day extensions - Discussed as the recurring mechanism keeping TikTok in limbo.

Pivotal Quotes: "Open AI is no longer. Open AI." — Neil Patel: His spicy prediction that OpenAI will fail or be absorbed as the technology and business model fray. "Siri is amazing. The updated Siri is amazing. It’s so good that people start falling in love with it." — Joanna Stern: Her spicy prediction that Siri becomes deeply conversational and emotionally sticky for users. "2026 is going to be the worst year for Apple since the 90s." — David Pierce: His spicy Apple forecast tied to executive turnover, weak product novelty, AI catch-up, and antitrust pressure.

Implications: Listeners should expect 2026 to be defined by platform shakeups, AI backlash, and scrutiny of once-dominant companies. The big question is not whether tech changes, but which companies can turn hype into durable products without triggering backlash.