The King of Coins & Collectibles - Van Simmons | #624

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Van Simmons explains how the rare-coin and collectibles markets have evolved into a highly bifurcated world: ultra-rare, high-quality items remain strong or surge, while common material often weakens as supply increases. He also argues that tangible assets like gold, platinum, watches, cards, and historic memorabilia remain compelling stores of value, especially amid currency debasement, AI-driven grading changes, and generational shifts in collecting.

Main Topics: Rare coin market bifurcation (Priority: 5/5): Simmons says the coin market has split between elite rarity/high quality coins, which remain in strong demand, and common coins, which have weakened as more supply has surfaced. Hoard discoveries and supply shocks (Priority: 5/5): He describes major hoards of U.S. gold coins found in Europe and elsewhere, explaining how sudden supply can depress common dates while boosting already-rare dates. Coin grading and the role of PCGS (Priority: 5/5): Simmons reviews the creation of modern coin grading, the Sheldon scale, and how PCGS standardized trust and liquidity by encapsulating and guaranteeing grades. Gold, silver, and platinum as tangible money (Priority: 4/5): The conversation covers precious metals as monetary assets, with Simmons emphasizing gold’s long-term rise, silver’s current discount dynamics, and platinum as relatively undervalued. Collectibles beyond coins (Priority: 4/5): They discuss watches, sports cards, Pokemon, pocket knives, firearms, art, and sealed consumer tech as alternative collectible markets with varying liquidity and valuation extremes. AI and future grading (Priority: 4/5): Simmons believes AI/computer vision could eventually grade coins and cards, but notes collectors often resist fully automated grading because they prefer human judgment and grade disputes create trading activity. Wealth preservation and generational collecting (Priority: 4/5): The episode frames collectibles as portable, tangible wealth that can be passed to heirs, with Simmons recommending type sets and historically meaningful items for long-term holding.

Key Arguments: Rare coins are not one market but two: top-tier rarity/high quality is strong, while common material can fall as supply increases. New hoards can materially change pricing; rare dates may rise while common dates become cheaper. PCGS helped create modern liquidity by standardizing grades and guaranteeing them in hard plastic holders. Gold and other tangible assets are attractive because currencies can debase over time and governments tend to expand debt. Platinum looks relatively cheap versus gold and may offer a favorable risk/reward setup. The most liquid collectibles are often the very best examples; lower-end items can be hard to sell. AI may eventually grade collectibles, but collectors’ psychology and grade disputes will keep human involvement relevant for some time. People tend to collect what they grew up with, which supports demand for items like vintage watches, cards, and sealed early iPhones.

Data Points: Gold price in 1999: $275/oz - Used to illustrate how much gold has appreciated over the last 26 years. Gold price at time of interview: about 20x 1999 level - Simmons notes gold has risen roughly twentyfold since 1999. Gold price in high school: $35/oz - He cites this as the price when he was buying gold as a young man. $20 gold piece content: 0.96750 oz of gold - He explains the intrinsic gold content of a U.S. $20 gold coin. PCGS founding/opening: Started 1984, opened 1986 - Simmons describes the two-year process of setting the grading standard and launching the company. Computer grading calculations: 2.2 million calculations in 4 seconds - He recalls an early coin-grading computer system developed by a software expert. Rare coin hoard estimate: $4-5 billion - His estimate of the value of a major U.S. gold coin hoard found across multiple countries. Hoard composition: $5, $10, and $20 gold coins from 1850 onward - He says the hoard included many mint marks and date sets, mostly high-value gold coins. 1850 $20 gold pieces handled: Only 1-2 in 45 years - He uses this to show how rare certain early dates are. 1850 $20 gold pieces in hoard: 80-90 coins - He says he bought an entire lot of these from the hoard. Silver peak in 1980: $48/oz - Referenced as a time when people lined up to sell silverware and silver sets. Junk silver pricing: $10 under spot - He says a bag of 90% silver was recently bid at a discount because smelters are backed up. Smelter backlog: 8 months behind - Explains why silver scrap is trading at a discount to melt value. Rolex melt value example: $22,000 - He says a Rolex Day-Date President’s melt value exceeded the watch’s market value. Mickey Mantle card value: $50,000 to $60 million range - He describes the escalation in value of a 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle graded 10. Roberto Clemente rookie card sale: $20 million - He cites a recent sale of a PSA 10 1955 Roberto Clemente rookie card. Honus Wagner card sale: $1 million - He mentions a damaged half-card Honus Wagner T206 that still sold for $1 million. Vintage watch sale: $395,000 - A rare watch he discussed was sold quickly after being acquired. Old Winchester rifle sale: $230,000 then $320,000 - He recounts a rare 1876 Winchester that appreciated sharply at auction. Indian peace medals: $6,000-$7,000+ - He gives a starting range for collectible U.S. Indian peace medals. Washington medals known: 20-30 known - He says most are in museums, with only a few in private hands. Early iPhone sealed examples: $50,000-$80,000 each - He cites sealed first-generation iPhones as a new collectible category. Mickey Mantle 1952 Topps in 10: $5 million then $15 million then $50-$60 million - He tracks the rising valuation over time for the finest known example. Platinum relative value: 2.4 oz platinum to buy 1 oz gold - He argues platinum is historically cheap relative to gold.

Pivotal Quotes: "Supply creates demand for some items, but not all items." — Van Simmons: Explaining why new hoards lift rare dates but hurt common dates. "Politicians have to make promises to get into office... sooner or later, gold will be a million dollars an ounce and the U.S. dollar will be zero." — Dr. Milton Friedman (as recalled by Van Simmons): Simmons recounts Friedman’s view on debt, currency debasement, and gold. "I think rare coins are probably one of the most high grade, nice selected... by far one of the most underpriced or best value items right now." — Van Simmons: His view on current relative value in collectibles.

Implications: Listeners should view top-quality collectibles and precious metals as differentiated markets, not monolithic ones. The best items may remain scarce and liquid, while common pieces can weaken. AI, hoards, and generational tastes may reshape pricing and access.