Episode Summary
Executive Summary: Austin Burak of Relayer Capital argues crypto investing now rewards assets at the intersection of rapid growth and reasonable valuation, with his highest-conviction themes being crypto/AI and 24/7 trading/tokenization. He makes bullish, model-driven cases for Venice, Pump, Hyperliquid, and Etherfi, emphasizing token buybacks, durable revenue, and a shift from infra to application-layer value capture.
Main Topics: Relayer Capital’s crypto investing framework: Burak says the best opportunities come from assets combining fast growth with attractive valuation, and he focuses on liquid tokens more than venture because public markets currently offer more obvious mispricings. Venice (VVV) valuation and token model: He presents a detailed discounted-style model for Venice based on subscription revenue, credit purchases, and future burn mechanisms, arguing VVV is materially underpriced relative to expected token buybacks and growth. Mines as Venice’s next growth catalyst: Burak views the forthcoming Mines product as a developer/app-store layer that could increase usage, drive more credit/subscription demand, and create a new burn source, though he acknowledges meaningful execution risk. Pump as a durable meme-coin casino: He argues Pump is still cheap because the market underestimates the durability of meme-coin speculation and the platform’s revenue, which he compares to gambling businesses with persistent demand. Hyperliquid as crypto-market infrastructure and money: He sees Hyperliquid as a direct beneficiary of on-chain activity and broader crypto flows, with revenue tied to trading volumes and the platform’s role in price discovery for new assets. Etherfi’s transformation into a neo-brokerage: Burak says the market still values Etherfi like a liquid staking/restaking project, while in reality most of its business now comes from neobanking, borrowing, and card products with strong buyback potential. The next crypto cycle favors applications and money: He expects revenue to increasingly shift away from execution-layer infrastructure toward applications and money-like assets, with winners being consumer-facing or utility-rich products rather than new chains.
Key Arguments: Crypto investing has evolved, so strategies must adapt; the durable edge is finding assets where growth is strong and valuation is still reasonable. On the liquid side, Relayer is now ~95% focused there because public tokens currently present more compelling opportunities than many venture deals. Venice’s token value can be modeled from burn mechanisms tied to subscriptions, credit purchases, and future products, making VVV attractive if growth continues. The biggest Venice assumption is Mines, but even this is framed as an extension of current AI usage rather than a totally new business. Programmatic burns matter because Venice is balancing token value accrual with reinvestment needs, making the model more sustainable than pure buyback-maximization. Pump’s revenue appears durable because meme trading is a persistent negative-EV activity that users keep returning to, similar to gambling or lotteries. Hyperliquid benefits both from its own growth and from broader crypto market reflation, since more trading activity directly boosts fees. Etherfi should be valued as a growing neo-brokerage, not as a legacy liquid staking token, because most of its revenue now comes from credit-card and borrowing activity. The next cycle will likely be defined less by infra speculation and more by app-layer tokens, usage, and money-like assets.
Data Points: Relayer Capital launch: about 2.5 years ago - Burak founded Relayer Capital after leaving CoinFund Current focus split: 95% liquid - He says the fund’s attention has shifted heavily toward liquid public tokens Venice current annualized revenue run-rate: $107 million - Burak’s estimate as of August Venice annualized burns run-rate: $8.3 million - Burak’s estimate as of August Venice projected 2027 revenue: $336 million - Used in his valuation model Venice projected 2027 burns: $70 million - Used to estimate token buyback capacity Venice Mines burn assumption: $29 million - He attributes about 40% of projected 2027 burns to Mines Venice historical users: 4 million - He cites this as the platform’s historical user base Venice credit purchase growth: $60 million ARR - He says the credit purchase product reached this run-rate within about eight months Venice token price target: $43.89 - His modeled value target for VVV Venice current token price (discussion reference): about $16 - Referenced as the then-current trading price during the interview Venice equity/token raise valuation: $1 billion - He references a June/July raise at this valuation Venice raise size: $65 million - Capital raised to support growth while prioritizing the token Venice subscription tiers: $18 / $68 / $200 per month - Subscription pricing used in the model discussion Venice burn on credit purchases: 5% - About $5 of VVV burned for every $100 of credits purchased Venice possible future credit burn: 10% - His model assumes the burn rate may increase by 2027 Pump buyback multiple: 5x - He says Pump trades at roughly 5x buybacks Hyperliquid and Lighter buyback multiple: 30x to 40x - Comparison used to argue Pump is cheap Etherfi business mix today: 65%+ neo-brokerage / 35% yield and staking - He says the business has shifted away from its legacy staking identity Etherfi credit card volume growth: $300K/day to $3-4M/day - Roughly 10x YoY growth in card usage Etherfi borrowing for credit card product: about $20 million - Borrowed against user balances on the platform OpenRouter valuation move: $1.3B to $10B - Used as validation for model-routing businesses Blockworks projection for Etherfi buybacks: $21 million over 12 months - He references conservative third-party analysis Execution-layer share of crypto revenue historically: 95%+ - Past crypto revenue concentration in infra/execution layers Applications share of crypto revenue now: about two-thirds - Used to argue the industry is shifting toward apps
Pivotal Quotes: "the intersection of growth and value" — Austin Burak: He defines his core investing lens for liquid crypto assets "I think pump is still incredibly cheap" — Austin Burak: His thesis on Pump’s valuation versus revenue durability "I think it's going to really be about applications, usage, and money" — Austin Burak: His view of what defines the next crypto cycle
Implications: The discussion suggests token markets are increasingly rewarding real usage, buybacks, and app-layer value capture. Investors should focus less on infra narratives and more on durable consumer products, trading venues, and token models with clear cash-flow linkage.