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The Next Bull Market is Here, and Obvious | Spencer and Aleks, Blockchain Capital

Crypto prices are weak, OG sentiment is exhausted, and institutions are leaning in. Blockchain Capital GPs Aleks Larsen and Spencer Bogart join David Hoffman to explain why this disconnect may be the opportunity. They unpack crypto’s shift toward application-layer value, stablecoins as onchain worki

Topics Discussed

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Blockchain Capital’s Spencer and Alex argue crypto is entering a new maturation phase: infrastructure has improved, regulation is advancing, and value is shifting from protocols to applications. They remain highly bullish on stablecoins, tokenized assets, and public blockchains, framing today’s skepticism as a temporary, cyclical disconnect rather than structural failure.

Main Topics: Buy-and-burn as a crypto credibility mechanism (Priority: 5/5): The conversation opens with Maker/MKR and the broader buyback-and-burn model, which the speakers describe as an effective signaling tool in a market where tokenholder rights remain unclear and trust is scarce. Why crypto VC is still alive (Priority: 5/5): They push back on the idea that crypto venture is dead, arguing that market malaise, AI distraction, and bear-market pessimism obscure major secular progress in crypto infrastructure and adoption. Crypto’s maturation and the internet analogy (Priority: 5/5): Alex frames crypto as being in an early-to-mid internet era: blockchains are now scalable, consumer UX has improved, and the ecosystem is poised for an S-curve inflection similar to broadband/mobile adoption. Fat protocol thesis giving way to fat apps (Priority: 5/5): They argue that the industry has overinvested in infrastructure, blockspace is now abundant, and value capture is moving up the stack from L1s/L2s to applications such as lending, exchanges, and derivatives. Stablecoins as the core adoption flywheel (Priority: 5/5): Stablecoins are presented as the clearest proof of product-market fit in crypto, with dollars staying on-chain, generating liquidity, working capital, and downstream revenue for DeFi protocols. Tokenized equities and real-world assets (Priority: 4/5): The speakers outline how equities, treasuries, and other RWAs could come on-chain, first via access, then via composability and collateral utility, though public-chain openness may conflict with compliance requirements. Blockchain Capital’s tokenized fund as a live experiment (Priority: 4/5): BCAP’s tokenized fund is used as a real-world example of on-chain asset innovation, initially created to test access and liquidity and now positioned to benefit from emerging lending and composability infrastructure.

Key Arguments: Buy-and-burn works because token markets are a lemon market: serious projects need a credible commitment that value accrues to holders, especially before regulatory clarity improves token rights. Crypto VC is not dead; the market is in a bear-cycle distraction phase while regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and real consumer use cases are all improving simultaneously. Crypto resembles the internet in its early years: the consumer stack is only a few years old, scalability and UX primitives have matured recently, and mass adoption typically lags infrastructure improvements. The industry has shifted from infrastructure scarcity to infrastructure abundance, so the economic center of gravity naturally moves from protocols to applications. Stablecoins are not merely a payments product; they act as on-chain working capital and generate meaningful downstream protocol revenue because capital tends to remain and circulate on-chain. The growth of tokenized assets depends on public, permissionless infrastructure because open markets create better price discovery, broader collateral utility, and more competitive lending terms. Tokenized equities will likely arrive first as access products for global users, then as composable financial primitives that are better than traditional brokerage models. AI and crypto rhyme in financing dynamics, but crypto is further along in regulatory and infrastructure maturation; AI labs may eventually face an app-layer value-capture shift similar to crypto. Blockchain Capital’s tokenized fund demonstrates that on-chain fund structures can expand access globally, and future DeFi infrastructure may enable borrowing and liquidity against such tokens. Public chains are essential for the long-term promise of RWAs because private chains recreate the silos that tokenization is supposed to break down.

Data Points: Crypto holders: ~700 million - Alex cites the existing holder base as the top of the funnel for further adoption. On-chain active users: ~10% of crypto holders - Estimate used to show how early the ecosystem still is. DeFi deposit base: ~$75 billion - David notes aggregate DeFi deposits as a sign of scale still being small relative to potential. Stablecoin market size: ~$300 billion - Used as the current baseline before projecting future growth. Stablecoin velocity: ~120x per year - Alex argues stablecoin dollars turn over about 120 times annually on-chain. Revenue from $1B new stablecoin issuance: ~$19 million/year - Estimated downstream on-chain protocol revenue generated over a year. Economic activity from $1B stablecoin issuance: ~$122 billion/year - Calculated as the amount of economic activity that issuance can generate through on-chain circulation. Protocol vs application fees: 2025 first year applications surpassed infrastructure - Shows value capture moving up the stack as blockspace got cheaper. Infrastructure-fee share in 2021: >70% - Most user fees were going to infrastructure during the high-cost blockspace era. Tokenized fund initial size: $10 million - BCAP’s tokenized fund was intentionally kept small as an early experiment. BCAP tokenized fund current size: ~$1 billion AUM - Spencer says the fund has grown substantially since launch. Stablecoin issuers backed by Blockchain Capital: Tether, Circle, Paxos - BC is the only venture investor in all three major stablecoin issuers, per Spencer. Potential tokenized equity model: XStocks / BAKKT-Kraken model - Mentioned as a fully composable but not direct-share-ownership structure.

Pivotal Quotes: "We are in like 2003, 2004. We've just had that shift to broadband, and we're maybe like pre-the mobile boom." — Alex: Internet analogy used to argue crypto is still early despite visible progress. "What we see is actually success, even if there's moments of pain associated with that kind of transition and that structural shift." — Alex: Explaining the move from infrastructure fees to application-layer fees as maturity, not decline. "The whole idea around BCAP is like it's a canary for what other people can do with their tokens." — David: Summarizing BCAP’s tokenized fund as a proof point for broader institutional tokenization.

Implications: The episode frames crypto as entering an adoption and value-capture inflection: stablecoins and RWAs should deepen on-chain liquidity, institutions will keep arriving, and public chains may become the backbone of a much larger financial system.

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