UK vs European energy prices, falling excess deaths and is 5 grams of cocaine a lot?

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: This episode fact-checks a viral tweet claiming UK energy costs are vastly higher than in Europe, showing it misused one-hour wholesale electricity prices rather than consumer bills. It then examines whether England and Wales have seen a lasting end to excess deaths, and clarifies public access figures for countryside and rivers, showing both are more nuanced than viral claims suggest.

Main Topics: Viral tweet on UK energy prices (Priority: 5/5): A social-media post compared apparent 'energy costs' across Europe, but the figures were traced to a single expensive hour in the wholesale electricity market, not household bills. How UK electricity and gas compare in Europe (Priority: 5/5): Using HEPI tariff data, the segment compares Britain with other European countries on electricity and gas, including rankings in cash terms and relative to disposable income. Excess deaths and whether the crisis has eased (Priority: 5/5): The program revisits chronic excess mortality in England and Wales and asks whether recent declines mean the problem is over or merely masked by seasonal baselines. Public access to countryside land (Priority: 4/5): The episode explains the '8% of England' figure as open-access land under the Right to Roam framework, distinguishing it from ordinary footpaths and rights of way. Access to rivers and waterways (Priority: 4/5): It scrutinizes the claim that only 3% of rivers are accessible, showing that the figure refers narrowly to statutory navigation rights on non-tidal rivers, not all forms of public access. Cocaine quantity claim (Priority: 2/5): The intro tees up a forthcoming check on whether '5g of cocaine' is a lot, referencing the Jared O'Mara expenses case, though the transcript cuts off before the analysis.

Key Arguments: The viral energy tweet is misleading because it uses wholesale electricity prices from one hour, not retail prices consumers pay. Great Britain was expensive in parts of 2022, but not four times more expensive than other European countries; rankings vary over time and by metric. HEPI’s data is one of the best public sources for comparing tariff levels, though it reflects available tariffs, not every customer’s actual bill. Recent excess-death figures have improved, but the underlying chronic problem may reappear once winter-season effects fade from the baseline. The '8% of countryside' claim refers specifically to open-access land in England, not all countryside or all public rights of way. The '3% of rivers' claim is a narrow legal measure based on statutory navigation rights, and does not capture informal access, permissions, ancient rights, tidal stretches, or contested common-law claims.

Data Points: UK electricity price in viral tweet: 2960 euros - Claimed in tweet as compared with other European countries; actually a wholesale price from one hour. Belgium/France energy figure in viral tweet: 650 euros - Displayed as a comparator in the misleading tweet. Spain energy figure in viral tweet: 620 euros - One of the listed figures in the viral tweet; not all figures matched the source map. Germany/Denmark/Netherlands/Austria/Norway figure in viral tweet: around 550 euros - Grouped together in the tweet as supposedly comparable energy costs. Finland energy figure in viral tweet: 476 euros - Listed in the tweet as one of the country comparisons. Poland energy figure in viral tweet: 174 euros - Listed as a low comparator in the viral tweet. Wholesales market timing: one hour in the early evening of 12 December - Epex Spot said the tweet’s data came from a particularly expensive hour for UK wholesale electricity. Great Britain electricity rank, Jan 2023: 5th most expensive - HEPI ranking among European countries for household electricity tariffs. Great Britain electricity rank, average 2022: 3rd most expensive - Behind Denmark and Italy in HEPI’s 2022 average. Great Britain gas rank, Jan 2023: 15th out of 33 - Domestic gas tariffs in HEPI’s January 2023 comparison. Great Britain gas rank, average 2022: 15th out of 33 - Average domestic gas tariff ranking across 2022. Great Britain electricity affordability rank: 9th out of 33 - Electricity bills as a share of disposable income, according to HEPI’s average 2022 data. Great Britain gas affordability relative to EU average: below EU average - HEPI found gas bills as a share of disposable income were below the EU average. England & Wales excess deaths, second half 2022: 26,000 more deaths than expected - Equivalent to 9% above normal in the last half of a typical year. England January excess deaths: 3,000 to 4,000 per week - Seen in the first three weeks of January before improving. Worst pandemic comparison: around 10,000 excess deaths a week - Used by Stuart MacDonald to contextualize the January peak as severe but below pandemic extremes. Open-access land in England: 8% - Figure discussed as land where people can roam freely under open-access rights. Open-access land in Wales: 22% - Used for comparison to England’s lower open-access share. Statutory right of navigation on non-tidal English rivers: 3.47% - The precise figure underlying the '3%' claim about river access. England river length: 36,000 miles - Approximate total river mileage referenced when explaining why a comprehensive access figure is hard to calculate.

Pivotal Quotes: "That tweet was total rubbish." — Josephine Cassley: Direct verdict on the viral energy-costs post after tracing it to wholesale prices from one expensive hour. "I think that's exactly right." — Stuart MacDonald: Agreement that the low excess-death figures may be flattered by seasonal baselines and accelerated winter deaths. "we can safely say that the 3% figure is at the very lowest end of how we define access to rivers in England." — John Bithrey: Summary of why the river-access statistic is a narrow legal measure rather than a full picture of public access.

Implications: Listeners should be cautious with viral numbers: context, definitions and time windows can completely change their meaning. The episode shows UK energy, mortality and access debates all require careful metric choice and source scrutiny.