Unchained
Unchained

Unconfirmed: SOL Is Up 3,800% YTD. Could It Eventually Displace Ethereum? - Ep.265

SOL is up 75% over the past seven days, 205% in the past month, and 3,800% YTD. On Unchained, Multicoin Capital’s Kyle Samani discusses the DeFi projects fueling Solana’s growth, why he thinks Solana could make Ethereum obsolete, and the spectrum of decentralization. Show highlights: what factors ha

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Kyle Samani Guest

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Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Laura Shin interviews Multicoin Capital’s Kyle Samani about Solana’s explosive August 2021 rally and why he believes Solana is becoming the preferred venue for high-throughput DeFi, NFTs, and social tokens. He argues Solana’s single-venue design enables faster, cheaper, more composable applications than Ethereum, especially for derivatives and mass retail use cases, while Ethereum’s inertia keeps it relevant for years.

Main Topics: Solana’s surge and ecosystem momentum (Priority: 5/5): Samani attributes SOL’s rapid price and market-cap rise to a wave of launches and user activity: DeFi protocols, NFT drops, and wallet improvements. He frames the Mango sale and DeGen Apes drop as proof that Solana can support real demand at scale. Why Solana fits DeFi derivatives better than Ethereum (Priority: 5/5): He argues perpetuals and derivatives require low latency, orderly liquidations, and cross-margining across products—features he считает difficult or impossible on Ethereum but increasingly feasible on Solana’s single venue. NFTs, social tokens, and creator monetization (Priority: 4/5): Samani sees retail-heavy NFT drops and social tokens as a major unlock for Solana because Ethereum’s congestion makes large-scale drops impractical. He points to Audius and creator-driven experiments as early examples. Ethereum vs. Solana: coexistence, then competition (Priority: 4/5): He says Ethereum will not disappear soon due to strong inertia, but Solana’s growth rate should stay higher over the next 24–36 months. He expects the relative balance of users, developers, and market cap to shift gradually. Decentralization trade-offs and validator structure (Priority: 3/5): Samani acknowledges Ethereum is more decentralized overall, but argues Solana’s decentralization is improving and that the practical difference is smaller than critics claim. He notes consensus control metrics may already favor Solana over ETH2 in some ways. Broader crypto news recap: NFTs, hacks, regulation, and adoption (Priority: 3/5): The episode’s second half covers OpenSea’s volume boom, Robinhood’s crypto reliance, Novi/Diem progress, DeFi exploits and white-hat rescue, Polygon’s Hermes acquisition, SEC Chair Gensler’s DeFi comments, and Chainalysis’ adoption report.

Key Arguments: Solana’s recent rally reflects real ecosystem usage, not just speculation; Mango’s auction and the DeGen Apes NFT drop showed demand at scale. Derivatives need high throughput, fast price updates, and orderly liquidations; Ethereum’s architecture and latency make that hard, especially for 20x leverage products. Cross-margining across protocols is essential for a decentralized FTX-like experience, and Solana’s single venue makes composability more realistic than fragmented Ethereum L2s. Large NFT drops and social-token experiments are better suited to Solana because Ethereum gas spikes make mass participation impractical. Ethereum’s proof-of-stake merge will not materially increase throughput, so it does not solve Solana’s core competitive advantage. Ethereum’s community and inertia matter, but only a relatively small number of core protocols and tools drive most real usage; many of those can be replicated on Solana. Decentralization is a spectrum; Solana is less decentralized than Ethereum overall, but Samani argues the practical gap is smaller than critics suggest and is narrowing over time. The biggest driver of future blockchain adoption will be a superior user experience: cheap, fast, and scalable software that feels more like mainstream internet products. Past failures like EOS were due to poor decentralization choices, broken gas economics, and weak execution—not proof that scalable, less-decentralized systems cannot work.

Data Points: SOL price at recording: about $70 - Laura cites Solana’s token price during the August 20, 2021 recording. SOL price at start of year: $1.50 - Laura contrasts Solana’s year-to-date appreciation. SOL price one month earlier: $23 - Laura notes the token’s rapid monthly rise. SOL price one week earlier: $43 - Laura highlights the weekly jump. Mango auction submissions: over $500 million - Samani says more than half a billion dollars was committed to the Mango token sale contract. Mango auction clearing price: $70 million - The token sale cleared at a valuation based on the auction outcome. Mango token allocation sold: 5% - Samani explains Mango sold five percent of total tokens; the team kept five percent and 90% went to the DAO. Implied Mango valuation: $1.4 billion - Derived from the auction clearing price and 5% sold. DeGen Apes mint demand: 50,000 to 100,000 participants - Samani says the NFT drop saw massive attempted participation. OpenSea August volume: $1.1 billion - Weekly news recap on August 19, 2021. OpenSea January-July total volume: just under $700 million - Used as comparison for August’s surge. OpenSea 30-day users: about 125,000 - User activity on the marketplace over the prior 30 days. OpenSea user growth: 172% - Month-over-month growth in active users. OpenSea transactions: 1.41 million - 30-day transaction count on the marketplace. OpenSea transaction growth: 160% - Month-over-month increase in transactions. Robinhood crypto revenue share: 41% - Q2 earnings contribution from crypto trading. Robinhood users trading crypto: 60% - Share of users who traded crypto in Q2. Dogecoin share of Robinhood crypto revenue: 62% - Dogecoin was the dominant source of Robinhood’s crypto transaction-based revenue. Chainalysis crypto adoption growth: 880% - Preview of the 2021 Geography of Cryptocurrency report. Top adoption country: Vietnam - Chainalysis ranked Vietnam first. US adoption rank: 8th - The US fell from last year’s ranking. China adoption rank: 13th - China dropped from 4th in 2020. Liquid hack loss: $74 million - Japanese exchange exploit mentioned in the recap. Poly Network exploit amount: $600 million - Referenced as the cross-blockchain hack that occurred weeks earlier. Miso exploit potential loss: 109,000 ETH (~$350 million) - Paradigm researcher Sam Sun described the bug that was patched before funds were lost. BitDAO auction raised: over 112,000 ETH - The patched auction proceeded successfully after the vulnerability fix. Polygon-Hermes acquisition: $250 million - Polygon acquired Hermes Network in the first blockchain network merger described. Polygon treasury share used: 12.5% - Allocated to pay for the Hermes acquisition. ZK infrastructure budget used: 25% - Polygon said the acquisition is part of its $1 billion ZK push.

Pivotal Quotes: "I think this has been kind of a culmination of a lot of things happening." — Kyle Samani: Opening explanation of why Solana’s ecosystem and token price surged. "What's really nice about Solana is it's a single venue, and you can support all of the users and all of the liquidity in one place." — Kyle Samani: His core argument for Solana’s advantage in DeFi composability and cross-margining. "I have a very strong belief that software needs to be free or as close to free as humanly possible." — Kyle Samani: Samani’s view that cheap, fast transactions will attract developers and users to Solana.

Implications: The episode frames Solana as a serious challenger for consumer-scale crypto apps, especially DeFi derivatives and NFT/social-token drops. Even if Ethereum remains dominant short term, the market may increasingly reward chains optimized for speed, cost, and composability.

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