What Foreign Policy Under Harris or Trump May Look Like

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode centers on how the U.S. election is being shaped more by domestic economics than foreign policy, while also examining major international and political developments in Germany. Mike Froman argues Kamala Harris would largely continue Biden-era foreign policy, with the clearest contrast to Trump on Ukraine, NATO, China, and alliance management. The discussion also highlights rising housing politics, anti-NIMBY backlash, and the emergence of populist forces in Germany’s east.

Main Topics: U.S. election foreign policy contrast (Priority: 5/5): Hosts and Mike Froman discuss why foreign policy is receiving limited attention in the Harris-Trump race, and where the two candidates would differ most if elected. Ukraine, NATO, and the transatlantic alliance (Priority: 5/5): Froman says Trump would likely reduce support for Ukraine and strain NATO, while Harris would probably continue strong allied coordination and aid. China, industrial policy, and trade protection (Priority: 4/5): The conversation covers the Biden administration’s shift toward industrial policy, tariffs, export controls, and strategic competition with China, and whether Harris would continue it. Germany’s state election shake-up (Priority: 5/5): Results in Thuringia and Saxony show major gains for the far right AfD and the new left-populist BSW, exposing public anger over immigration, Ukraine aid, and political representation. Housing supply and the NIMBY backlash (Priority: 3/5): The hosts connect U.S. and UK politics around housing shortages, the push to build more homes, and criticism of aesthetically indifferent development policy. Business community versus diplomatic concerns about Trump (Priority: 3/5): Froman explains why many businesses remain comparatively comfortable with Trump’s pro-tax-cut, pro-deregulation record despite wider geopolitical worries.

Key Arguments: Foreign policy matters less in U.S. elections than pocketbook issues, so Harris is rationally emphasizing inflation and domestic economics rather than detailed geopolitical positions. Harris would likely represent continuity with Biden on most foreign policy issues because she has been deeply involved in the administration’s decision-making and international outreach. The clearest policy break between Trump and Harris would be Ukraine: Trump has signaled an end to support and a push for negotiations, while Harris would likely sustain NATO-backed aid to Ukraine. On the Middle East, differences are more about tone and emphasis than fundamentals; both candidates support Israel’s security, though Harris may be more explicit about civilian protection and Palestinian statehood. The U.S. approach to China has already shifted away from pure free trade toward industrial policy, export controls, and selective protectionism, and that framework may persist under either administration. Tariffs can create multiple costs: direct consumer cost, retaliation against U.S. exporters, and imitation by other countries, making the economic case against broad tariffs more than just an inflation argument. Germany’s eastern election results show both far-right and far-left populist parties benefiting from dissatisfaction with immigration policy, Ukraine aid, and distrust of establishment parties. Housing supply has become a recurring electoral issue across countries, and governments’ attempts to fight NIMBYism can provoke backlash when they ignore design and local concerns.

Data Points: Countries/elections affecting markets: voters around the world - Framing of the series as elections with market and economic consequences Date of U.S. debate: September 10 - Mentioned as the upcoming Trump-Harris debate date Trump support in recent period: almost as certain - Hosts note that before the recent change, Trump seemed highly likely to win Foreign policy in Harris convention speech: more than any other one at the convention - Harris’s speech included comparatively more foreign policy than others Germany state elections: 2 - Thuringia and Saxony elections discussed as significant AFD vote milestone: first time since the Nazis in the Second World War - Far right won a state election for the first time in the postwar era German military aid comparison: largest contributor apart from the US - Germany’s role in aid to Ukraine BSW formation: earlier this year - New party led by Sahra Wagenknecht formed shortly before the election Harris foreign leader meetings: 150 - Froman says she has met roughly 150 foreign leaders Harris travel on behalf of administration: every continent, virtually every continent - Illustrates her foreign policy experience Asia trips: 4 - Froman says Harris has gone to Asia four times Tariff cost estimate: $3,900 - Peterson Institute estimate of cost to the average American family from Trump tariff proposals Time until election: 75 days - Froman notes the remaining campaign window German federal election timing: September 2025 - Next federal election referenced in the discussion Coalition size in Germany: three-way - Scholz-led coalition described as SPD, Greens, and Free Democrats China tariff range mentioned: 10 to 20% - Trump’s proposed broad tariffs on imports from other countries outside China were referenced

Pivotal Quotes: "Foreign policy is an issue for wonks. It's an issue for eccentrics. But it's not the issue that people vote on." — Adrian Wooldridge: Explaining why Harris is focusing on domestic economics rather than detailed foreign policy "she certainly lays out a very different vision for the United States than former President Trump does." — Mike Froman: On the contrast between Harris and Trump despite continuity with Biden "The greatest difference is likely to be on Russia and Ukraine" — Mike Froman: Summarizing the most consequential foreign policy divide between Trump and Harris

Implications: Listeners should expect the 2024 U.S. election to hinge mainly on inflation and economic confidence, while foreign policy differences matter most for allies, Ukraine, and China. Europe’s political fragmentation and Germany’s populist surge signal broader instability in democratic politics and coalition-building.