Episode Summary
Executive Summary: The episode challenges bearish headlines about the U.S. EV market by separating current sales data from automakers’ lowered expectations. Corey Cantor argues 2023 was still strong—EV sales rose about 50% and share neared 10%—but 2024 growth should slow as legacy OEMs delay models, Tesla matures, and charging and affordability remain major constraints.
Main Topics: U.S. EV headlines vs. actual sales data (Priority: 5/5): The host and Corey Cantor contrast gloomy media narratives with 2023 sales figures that still showed strong absolute growth and market share gains, arguing much of the pessimism reflects expectations resetting rather than demand collapsing. Legacy automakers’ uneven EV execution (Priority: 5/5): Ford, GM, and Stellantis are lagging due to limited model lineups, production delays, software issues, and the wind-down of older EV products, creating the appearance of a broader market problem. Tesla’s role and limits (Priority: 4/5): Tesla remains dominant, but its growth outlook is softer, it relies on only a few high-volume models, and its pricing strategy plus delayed new models complicate how much it can carry the U.S. market. Hyundai-Kia as a stronger diversified EV player (Priority: 4/5): Hyundai and Kia are presented as an insurgent success story because they offer multiple models across segments and price points, have built battery expertise over time, and grew quickly in 2023. BYD and the global EV race (Priority: 4/5): BYD’s rapid scale-up in China and expansion abroad show how serious, diversified EV strategy can produce massive growth, while also raising the possibility of future U.S. entry if domestic incumbents falter. Affordability and charging as the main adoption barriers (Priority: 5/5): The episode emphasizes that EV demand is constrained by upfront cost and weak charging availability, with U.S. infrastructure rollout lagging far behind China and not yet meeting consumer concerns.
Key Arguments: U.S. EV sales did not collapse in 2023; they grew strongly, and market share continued rising. Much of the negative press is reacting to automakers’ revised future production plans, not to falling demand already visible in the data. Legacy automakers’ struggles are company-specific and should not be mistaken for the entire market. Tesla remains central but its model lineup is narrow, its growth is maturing, and price cuts create residual-value problems for fleets like Hertz. Diversified product portfolios and repeated iteration, as seen with Hyundai-Kia and BYD, are better positioned for long-term EV adoption. The biggest structural barriers to wider U.S. EV adoption are high prices and insufficient charging infrastructure, not a lack of consumer awareness alone. A sub-$35,000 EV could open roughly half of the U.S. new-car market, making affordable models crucial to future growth. Charging remains a persistent concern because public infrastructure growth in the U.S. is too slow relative to EV penetration and consumer needs.
Data Points: U.S. EV sales growth (2023 vs. 2022): Almost 50% year-on-year - Corey Cantor says the U.S. EV market grew strongly despite bearish headlines. U.S. EV sales volume (2023): About 1.45 million - Combined BEV and PHEV sales in the U.S. by the end of 2023. U.S. EV sales volume (2022): About 971,000 - Baseline year used for comparison with 2023 growth. U.S. EV market share (2019): About 2% - Cantor uses 2019 as a reference point for early-stage U.S. EV adoption. U.S. EV market share (2021): About 4.5% - Shows the beginning of a stronger growth trajectory. U.S. EV market share (2022): About 7.5% - Illustrates continued market-share expansion before 2023. U.S. EV market share (2023): About 9.5% - EVs kept gaining share even as broader auto sales rebounded. Total U.S. auto sales (2023): About 15.5 million vehicles - Overall market strength helped limit the appearance of EV slowdown. BNEF 2024 U.S. EV growth forecast: 32% - Base-case forecast for 2024, indicating slower but still strong growth. Cox Automotive 2024 growth forecast: 35% - Alternative industry forecast cited as broadly similar. Ford EV sales (2022): Around 60,000 - Used to show Ford’s limited EV scale. Ford EV sales (2023): About 72,000 - Modest growth, but not a breakout year. GM EV sales (2023): About 76,000 - GM slightly beat Ford overall, but most sales came from the Bolt. GM Bolt share of GM EV sales: About 80% - Indicates GM’s EV mix was heavily dependent on an older platform. Tesla Model Y deliveries (2023): About 1.2 million - Presented as the world’s top-selling vehicle and Tesla’s core volume driver. Tesla total vehicle sales (2023): About 1.8 million - Referenced as Tesla’s overall annual scale. BYD annual sales (2019): About 400,000 - Used to illustrate BYD’s pre-expansion baseline. BYD annual sales (2022): About 1.6 million - Shows the first major jump after shifting away from ICE sales. BYD annual sales (2023): About 3 million - Demonstrates extraordinary acceleration in EV-focused sales. Hyundai-Kia EV sales (2022): About 73,000 - Baseline for the group’s U.S. EV growth. Hyundai-Kia EV sales (2023): About 120,000-122,000 - Shows roughly 60% growth year over year. Hertz EV divestment: About 20,000 EVs, roughly one-third of its fleet - Hertz cited cost, maintenance, and residual-value losses. Model Y price drop: From roughly $60,000-high $50,000s to about $40,000-$45,000 - Explains why Hertz took a large residual-value hit. U.S. public charging connector additions (2022): About 41,000 - Shows the level of infrastructure deployment before the slowdown in net additions. U.S. public charging connector additions (2023): About 27,000 net new - Highlights weak recent charging buildout. China public charging additions (2023): About 800,000 - Used as a stark comparison to the U.S. rollout pace. NEVI funds awarded: About 4% of $5 billion - Indicates slow deployment of federal charging infrastructure money. Consumers citing charging issues: About 39% in a Cox survey - Charging is one of the top barriers to EV purchase consideration. Dealer lot dwell time comparison: 150+ days for some EVs vs. about 70 days average for all cars - Used to explain why some dealer complaints gained traction. Potential market unlocked below $35,000: About half of U.S. new passenger car sales - Shows the importance of lower-priced EVs for mass adoption.
Pivotal Quotes: "I think this kind of sky is falling aspect was a little bit hyperbolic when sales were up by so much." — Shail Khan: Opening framing of the episode, pushing back on bearish EV media coverage. "You might think the sky is falling. That EV sales are actually going down. By the end of 2023, according to our data, EV sales were up almost 50% year on year." — Corey Cantor: Core rebuttal to the narrative that the U.S. EV market is already in decline. "When you get those EVs below $35,000 or in the $36,000 or less range, you're unlocking about half of the U.S. new passenger car sales market." — Corey Cantor: Explains why affordability is central to scaling EV adoption.
Implications: The U.S. EV market is still growing, but mass adoption depends on affordable models, reliable charging, and stronger execution from OEMs. 2024 likely slows, yet the winners now could define market share for the rest of the decade.