Why are more people claiming disability benefits?

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode checks several viral or politically charged claims and finds most are misleading or false: UK welfare costs have risen sharply, but the cause is not fully known; UK-Russia comparisons over “jail for social media posts” collapse under scrutiny; the ONS Labour Force Survey is badly degraded, limiting policy insight; and the UK does have Europe’s oldest housing stock, though the item is teased for fuller treatment later.

Main Topics: Rising UK health-related welfare spending: Tim Harford examines the sharp increase in working-age health-related benefits, splitting the rise between disability and incapacity payments and exploring possible explanations such as worsening health, incentives, COVID, and cost-of-living pressures. Why more people are claiming benefits: The segment weighs competing hypotheses for rising claims, using international comparisons, Motability, and benefit generosity, but concludes there is no single proven driver; the UK’s pattern is unusual compared with peer countries. Deteriorating population health and youth mental health: Evidence suggests worsening mental health and some broader health strain since the pandemic, especially among younger people, though physical-health data are mixed and survey quality is weaker than before. Debunking claims about UK vs Russia imprisoning social media users: A detailed fact-check shows the comparison is badly framed: UK figures refer largely to arrests for online malicious communications, not jail sentences, while Russian figures concern criminal proceedings under a very different legal and political environment. Collapse of the ONS Labour Force Survey: The episode explains how falling response rates, COVID-era disruptions, budget cuts, and the diversion of resources to a transformed survey left the UK’s main labor-market survey unreliable and in some respects unusable. UK housing stock age claim: The programme briefly addresses the listener claim that the UK has the oldest housing stock in Europe and says yes, it does, promising a fuller explanation in a later episode.

Key Arguments: Working-age health-related benefit spending rose from £36bn to £48bn in four years, but the reason for more claims is still not well understood. The increase in claims is roughly evenly split between disability and incapacity benefits, with around a million additional cases in each category. International evidence suggests the UK rise is exceptional; other wealthy countries did not see comparable post-pandemic jumps, weakening simple COVID or inflation explanations. Motability and higher benefit generosity do not adequately explain the acceleration because both incentives existed before the pandemic. Mental health appears to have worsened, especially for younger people, but physical-health evidence is mixed and survey degradation makes measurement harder. Claims that the UK imprisons more people for social media posts than Russia are false because they conflate arrests with jail sentences and compare unlike legal systems and data sources. The ONS Labour Force Survey is now widely viewed by economists as unreliable at the top-line level and even less useful for subgroup analysis. The UK’s housing stock is indeed the oldest in Europe, despite intuitive objections based on older continental buildings.

Data Points: Working-age health-related benefits cost: £48 billion - Last financial year, after rising from £36 billion in 2019-20. Working-age health-related benefits cost in 2019-20: £36 billion - Pre-pandemic baseline used for comparison. Increase in welfare spending: About one-third in four years - Inflation-adjusted rise in working-age health-related benefits. Disability benefit cases in England and Wales: 2.0 million to 2.9 million - 2019 to 2024 increase in disability benefit claimants. Incapacity benefit cases in England and Wales: 2.1 million to 3.0 million - 2019 to 2024 increase in incapacity benefit claimants. Disability claim growth explained by mental health: A bit more than half - Tom Waters says over half of the increase is due to mental/behavioural problems. Disability claim growth explained by physical reasons: About 45% - Remaining share of the increase in disability benefits claims. Mental health service contact increase: 36% since 2019 - NHS mental health services activity rose substantially after the pandemic. NHS sickness absence rate: About 4% to about 5% of days - Public-sector administrative data show higher sickness absence in the NHS. PIP claimants with enhanced mobility component: About half - Eligibility for Motability depends on this component. Motability share of new cars: Almost 1 in 5 - Claim cited in discussion of whether Motability drives benefit claims. UK freedom score: 78/100 - Freedom House score for the UK. Russia freedom score: 20/100 - Freedom House score for Russia. UK online malicious communications arrests: 3,300 - 2017 figure often misrepresented as prison sentences. UK convictions: Nearly 1,700 - Known number convicted under the relevant UK online communications law; imprisonment number is lower and unspecified. Russian internet-user criminal proceedings: 411 - Agora report from 2017 on proceedings against internet users. Labour Force Survey pause: 4 months - ONS suspended publication of new data during the crisis. Labour Force Survey response rate decline: Falling for more than a decade - Long-run deterioration worsened sharply after COVID and budget cuts. GP consultations per month: Around 30 million - Claim discussed and corrected as being appointments, not unique patients. Share of GP surgery appointments actually with GPs: About 45% - Rest are other appointments such as nurse-led tests. Frequent attenders' share of consultations: About 4 in 10 - Top 10% of patients account for a large proportion of consultations. Older youth claim rate equivalence: A 20-year-old today ≈ a 39-year-old in 2019 - Illustrates sharp increase in benefit uptake among young adults. Young people on disability benefits: About 6% to 7% of people in their 20s - Current claim rate cited in the discussion. Mental/behavioural reasons among 20-year-old claimants: About three quarters - Most young claimants receive disability benefits for mental/behavioural issues. Russian prisoners on political grounds: 437 - Memorial Human Rights Group figure cited by Amnesty-related discussion. Russian prisoners on religious grounds: 432 - Memorial Human Rights Group figure cited alongside political prisoners. Politically persecuted outside prison in Russia: 586 - Additional Memorial count of people under political persecution but not imprisoned.

Pivotal Quotes: "The truth is, no one really knows." — Tim Harford / Tom Waters discussion: On the central question of why working-age health-related benefit claims are rising. "Most economists at the moment think it is more or less unusable." — Delphine Strauss: On the current quality of the ONS Labour Force Survey. "This claim is justifiable, but very likely to be misunderstood." — Tim Harford: On the statement that there are 30 million GP consultations a month in the UK.

Implications: The episode warns listeners not to trust flashy comparative claims or official statistics uncritically. Welfare trends and labor-market policy are being debated with incomplete evidence, and poor survey quality means major UK decisions may be made with blurred data.