Why Do So Few Democrats Want Biden to Run in 2024?

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode examines Joe Biden’s 2024 reelection case with Jon Favreau, weighing concerns about Biden’s age, weak approval, and unpopular candidacy against his incumbency, legislative record, and the political power of contrasting him with Trump-era extremism. The conversation argues Biden’s path depends less on being beloved than on making the race a clear choice against Republicans.

Main Topics: Biden’s age and voter anxiety (Priority: 5/5): The discussion centers on widespread concern that Biden is too old to run again, especially among Democrats who worry about a campaign stumble or diminished effectiveness at 86. Incumbency without broad enthusiasm (Priority: 4/5): Favreau argues incumbents often face weak 'run again' polling, and Biden’s numbers are depressed by polarization and general voter crankiness, not just personal failings. The role of Kamala Harris (Priority: 4/5): Harris is seen as politically important but not a reassuring successor, which reduces pressure on Biden to step aside while also limiting her ability to serve as a clear generational alternative. Lessons from 2022 and the 'choice vs referendum' strategy (Priority: 5/5): The episode frames Democrats’ 2022 success as evidence that voters respond to abortion, democracy, and anti-extremism messaging more than to economic satisfaction alone. Biden’s governing record and messaging challenge (Priority: 4/5): Biden has significant bipartisan achievements, but the challenge is translating legislation into a narrative of ongoing fights rather than a simple accomplishments report card. General-election matchups with Trump and DeSantis (Priority: 5/5): Trump is seen as benefiting from challenger status but burdened by deep unpopularity; DeSantis looks increasingly extreme and may not be a meaningfully stronger opponent. Campaign style and attention strategy (Priority: 4/5): Favreau argues Biden should be out more, using humor, town halls, and fight-oriented appearances to counter age concerns and prevent Republicans from defining the narrative.

Key Arguments: Biden’s weak 'run again' polling is partly normal for incumbents and partly driven by polarization, but age is the specific vulnerability that worries Democrats most. The real concern is not just senility; it is whether a campaign at Biden’s age would be too taxing and feed a durable perception that he is less effective. Biden’s relative invisibility helps Republicans define him, but it also lets him repeatedly exceed low expectations when he does appear publicly. Kamala Harris does not create a strong succession threat because she is not viewed as a clearly stronger candidate, which dampens pressure for Biden to step aside. The 2022 midterms showed that Democrats can outperform expectations when the race is framed around abortion, democracy, and anti-MAGA extremism rather than just inflation. Voters may dislike Biden’s record on the economy, but they are often even less confident that Republicans would improve their lives, making the economy a weak but not fatal issue for him. Biden’s legislative wins matter more as proof of fighting for people than as standalone achievements; the campaign should frame them as part of an ongoing battle. Trump is still uniquely polarizing, and a rematch likely centers on voters’ already-formed negative view of Trump versus familiarity with Biden. DeSantis’s Florida win does not automatically translate nationally because the electorate now perceives him as extreme and Trump-like. Biden’s strongest strategic move is to keep the election a binary choice between his coalition and an extreme Republican Party.

Data Points: Americans who want Biden to run again: 26% - AP-NORC poll cited early in the conversation Democrats split on Biden running again: 47-47 - Washington Post poll mentioned by Ezra Klein Age at end of a second term: 86 - Biden would be 86 at the end of a second term Americans who think Biden is too old: Two thirds - Quinnipiac poll referenced in the age discussion Biden approval rating: 41.2% - 538 approval rating cited during historical comparison Reagan support to run again in 1982: 36% - A poll around Reagan’s third year discussed as historical context Reagan approval around same point: 43% - Historical comparison to Biden’s standing Biden bipartisan laws signed: Over 300 - Biden’s State of the Union boast highlighted in the discussion Penalty for election-denying candidate: 1 to 4 points - Catalyst report on 2022 election performance Trump’s Republican primary support: In the 50s - Favreau notes Trump’s polling among Republican voters Biden voters asked about age at 86: Not a single hand went up - New York Times focus group referenced by Ezra Klein Biden’s prior campaign duration assumption: One term - Favreau says many Democrats expected Biden to be a bridge to the next generation

Pivotal Quotes: "I think the deeper fear is the other one you get at that. Maybe there's something there, not that he's senile, but just that the rigors of a campaign at this age are going to be too much for him in a way." — Jon Favreau: On the core Democratic concern about Biden’s age "We got to turn it into a choice and not a referendum." — Jon Favreau: Describing the successful Obama 2012 reelection strategy and its relevance to Biden "The Republican Party is now so extreme... they have left sort of a broad, broad middle of fundamentally American values that a Democratic candidate like Joe Biden can easily embrace and stand for and reclaim." — Jon Favreau: On Biden’s opportunity to run against GOP extremism

Implications: Biden’s 2024 strategy depends on framing the race as a stark choice against extremism, not a referendum on his age or approval. Success will hinge on visibility, contrast, and mobilizing fear of GOP control more than personal popularity.