Episode Summary
Executive Summary: Joel Gratz, founder of OpenSnow, explains that the awful Western ski season was mostly a weather-variability story amplified by warmth, not a pure climate-change story. He details why mountain snowfall is hard to forecast, how snowpack functions as western water infrastructure, and how ski resorts are adapting through snowmaking, elevation strategy, and year-round revenue. He also defends climate nuance and discusses cloud seeding as a limited but real tool.
Main Topics: Why the Western snow season was so poor (Priority: 5/5): Gratz argues the season was driven mainly by bad atmospheric luck: below-average precipitation plus extreme warmth. Climate change mattered indirectly by raising temperatures, but it was not the primary cause of the snowfall deficit. Climate change, warming, and the snow-rain line (Priority: 5/5): The conversation focuses on how modest warming increases rain-versus-snow risk in shoulder seasons and at lower elevations, with nighttime warmth especially harmful to snowpack structure and melt-freeze cycles. OpenSnow’s origin story and business model (Priority: 4/5): Gratz describes building OpenSnow from a text message to friends into a bootstrapped, profitable forecasting platform serving skiers and outdoor users through freemium subscriptions and advertising. Why mountain weather is harder to forecast (Priority: 5/5): He explains that mountains create complex microclimates, weather models lack sufficient station data, and adjustments are harder because there are fewer long-running mountain observations than at airports or cities. Snowpack as western water infrastructure (Priority: 5/5): Snowpack is framed as a ‘water battery’ for the West, but one subject to huge natural variability over centuries. Climate change adds pressure mostly through temperature and evaporation, not clearly through precipitation trends. How ski resorts are adapting (Priority: 4/5): Resorts are investing in more efficient snowmaking, focusing snow production at higher elevations, and diversifying revenue to reduce dependence on increasingly variable winter conditions. Weather modification and cloud seeding (Priority: 3/5): Gratz says cloud seeding is real, science-based, and potentially useful in the right conditions, but it is not magic and works only on marginal clouds; ethical concerns remain limited at current scale.
Key Arguments: This season’s bad snow was mostly a bad-luck atmospheric pattern: less precipitation than average and unusually warm conditions, rather than a direct climate-change signal. Climate change still matters because warming temperatures push marginal events from snow to rain, especially at shoulder seasons and lower elevations. Higher overnight temperatures damage snowpack by preventing freeze cycles, which reduces structure and accelerates melt. Mountain forecasts are harder than urban forecasts because topography creates microclimates and stations are sparse, so model bias correction is less reliable. OpenSnow succeeds by focusing on a narrow emotional use case—helping people find powder—and translating the same weather-model inputs into mountain-specific forecasts. Snowpack is essential water infrastructure in the West; variability is natural and long-term planning should account for booms and busts regardless of climate change. Resorts are responding rationally with better snowmaking, higher-elevation investments, and broader business models, but the energy transition still requires policy-level action. Cloud seeding can modestly increase precipitation in suitable clouds, but it cannot create storms from blue sky and likely has limited scale effects at present.
Data Points: Western snow season record context: One of the worst Western snowpack years on record - Opening framing for the 2025-2026 North American winter season Forecast horizon: About 2 weeks - Gratz says predictability for consumers drops sharply beyond this window OpenSnow full-time employees: 15 - Company size shared during discussion of operations OpenSnow contractors: 10 - Additional forecasters and staff supporting the service Business model reach: Hundreds of thousands to low millions of users - Scale of free and paid readership depending on sharing and checking behavior Snow telemetry network stations: About 1,000 - Government-funded western mountain snow stations used for water forecasting Weather modification history: 50+ years - Cloud seeding and related weather-modification work described as longstanding Colorado snowmaking efficiency: Far more efficient than 20, 30, 40 years ago - Resort adaptation through improved snowmaking systems Japan snow season window: December 1 through roughly end of February - Example of a short, intense snowfall season where model choice matters Potential cloud-seeding impact: A few percent to up to 20% - Range Gratz cites for how much precipitation could be increased in some conditions Snowpack-water example: 300 inches of snow - Illustrative annual snowfall amount for a Colorado mountain basin Hypothetical cloud-seeding increase: 5% (300 to 315 inches) - Used to show why small percentages can matter for water supply
Pivotal Quotes: "mostly this is a season of bad luck when it comes to snowfall, but the background warming of climate change likely has some role in just the warmth" — Joel Gratz: Explaining why the poor ski season is not primarily a climate-change event "Snowpack is a water battery in the West" — Joel Gratz: Describing why snowpack matters so much for reservoirs, rivers, and summer water supply "What an amazing world we're living in. I don't have to be the weather channel, I don't have to be AccuWeather. They can be successful. I can be successful." — Joel Gratz: Reflecting on competition, open data, and how multiple weather businesses can thrive
Implications: Expect more variable ski seasons, but not a simple linear decline. Resorts and water managers should invest in elevation, efficiency, and flexibility, while listeners should treat climate claims with nuance and rely on mountain-specific forecasting tools.