WS More or Less: James Comey - Basketball Superstar?

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: This episode uses James Comey’s unusual height and background to examine the statistical odds of reaching the NBA. Drawing on data science and sports commentary, it argues that height, childhood advantage, and global trends all shape basketball success—but that the modern NBA’s shift toward shooting and smaller, skilled players makes Comey’s theoretical path to pro basketball even less likely.

Main Topics: James Comey as a statistical thought experiment: The episode frames the former FBI director’s 6'8" height as a way to explore how likely a very tall man is to make the NBA, using his post-FBI prominence as a hook. Height as a major predictor of NBA success: Data scientist Seth Stevens-Davidowitz explains that height massively increases the chances of reaching the league, with extreme tallness conferring substantial advantage. Talent spotting and coach bias toward size: Sports writer Sam Smith argues that recruiters often overvalue height, assuming skills can be developed later, which can help tall players get opportunities even if they start late. Childhood background and non-cognitive skills: The discussion challenges stereotypes about basketball players coming from poor or unstable backgrounds, noting that better childhood conditions correlate with NBA success through health and personal development. Globalization of the NBA: The episode notes that many NBA players now come from outside the US, where improved nutrition and healthcare have produced more tall, competitive athletes. The modern NBA favors smaller, skilled players: The rise of Stephen Curry and three-point shooting has shifted team strategy away from pure size, reducing the advantage of very tall players like Comey.

Key Arguments: A man who is 6'8" has a far better chance of reaching the NBA than an average-height man, but the odds are still small. Height opens doors in basketball because coaches and scouts often give very tall players chances to prove themselves. Some legendary NBA players began playing late and were discovered mainly because of their exceptional height. Contrary to stereotype, NBA players are not more likely to come from poor or broken homes; better childhood circumstances correlate with higher chances of making it. Class matters because it affects nutrition, healthcare, and the development of non-cognitive skills such as discipline and perseverance. The NBA has become more international, and taller talent pools outside the US now increase competition. Modern basketball strategy emphasizes spacing and long-range shooting, making the league less dominated by traditional big men.

Data Points: Height of James Comey / LeBron James: 6'8" (203 cm) - Used to frame the comparison between Comey and elite NBA players Chance of reaching the NBA at 6'8": 1 in 200 - Estimate from data scientist Seth Stevens-Davidowitz Chance of reaching the NBA if under 6 feet: 1 in 1,000,000 - Illustrates how sharply odds fall with shorter height Chance of reaching the NBA if over 7 feet: 1 in 7 - Shows the extreme advantage of very tall stature Proportion of men in the US who are 6'8" or taller: About 1 in 30,000 - Shows how rare Comey/LeBron-sized men are Share of NBA players from outside the US: About 25% - Reflects the internationalization of the league Age of James Comey: 57 years old - Mentioned humorously as an ignored obstacle to his basketball career Height of Stephen Curry: 6'3" (190 cm) - Example of the modern game’s shift toward shorter, skilled players

Pivotal Quotes: "I don't think he's medically unfit to be president. I think he's morally unfit to be president." — Unnamed Trump critic at the start of the episode: Opening clip establishing Comey’s public profile "A man who's under six foot tall has about a one in one million chance of reaching the NBA. A man who's over seven foot tall has about a one in seven chance of reaching the NBA." — Seth Stevens-Davidowitz: Core statistical comparison on how height affects NBA odds "If you're 6'8, you have a better chance of having a career in the FBI than you do in basketball." — Sam Smith: Closing observation about how the modern NBA has changed

Implications: Height remains a huge advantage in basketball, but the game’s evolution toward shooting and skill is narrowing that edge. For would-be players, background and development still matter, and for teams, overvaluing size can be a costly mistake.