113 – Dan Griswold on the Benefits and Myths of Immigration

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Dan Griswold argues that immigration is a major engine of U.S. growth, innovation, and demographic stability. He rebuts common myths on wages, crime, fiscal costs, and assimilation, contending that most immigrants complement rather than replace native workers and that higher legal, especially employment-based, immigration would better match America’s labor-market and demographic needs.

Main Topics: Immigration as a driver of growth and productivity (Priority: 5/5): Griswold argues immigrants expand the labor force, raise productivity through innovation and entrepreneurship, and complement native-born workers rather than directly competing with most of them. Demographic decline and labor-force sustainability (Priority: 5/5): He emphasizes falling U.S. fertility and slowing labor-force growth, warning that immigrants and their children are essential to sustaining retirement systems, services, and long-run economic capacity. Debunking the myth of mass immigration (Priority: 4/5): The discussion distinguishes between absolute numbers and rates, showing current immigration is historically normal or below past peaks when measured relative to population. Wages, jobs, and labor-market effects (Priority: 5/5): Griswold argues immigration has little to no negative effect on most Americans’ wages and can even raise them via complementarities, consumer demand, and skill upgrading. Crime, terrorism, and fiscal burden myths (Priority: 4/5): He cites research showing immigrants are less likely to commit crimes and are generally net fiscal contributors, especially at higher skill levels. Policy reform: more legal, skills-based immigration (Priority: 5/5): He proposes expanding legal immigration, especially employment-based visas, while preserving family reunification and reducing reliance on outdated or inefficient systems. Conservatives, values, and assimilation (Priority: 3/5): Griswold argues immigrants generally assimilate, embrace American values, and align well with conservative priorities such as family, work, faith, and lawfulness.

Key Arguments: Immigration boosts GDP growth by increasing both the size of the workforce and worker productivity. Immigrants are self-selected risk-takers and entrepreneurs, which makes them unusually dynamic contributors to the economy. Most immigrants complement native-born workers, so wage effects for the vast majority of Americans are positive or negligible. Low-skilled immigration can encourage native-born workers to stay in school and move into higher-value jobs. U.S. fertility is below replacement, so immigrants and their children are necessary to prevent labor-force decline and ease pressure on Social Security and other retirement programs. The U.S. is not experiencing unprecedented immigration when measured against historical rates or international peers. Immigrants are less likely than native-born Americans to commit crimes, and terrorism is not well explained by immigrant inflows. Immigrants are usually net fiscal contributors, especially when they are educated and enter at working age. The U.S. should shift toward more employment-based immigration and away from outdated limits that underweight skill and labor-market demand. Immigrants assimilate over generations, become fluent in English, and often strengthen family, faith, and community life. Conservatives should support immigration because immigrants reinforce values conservatives prize and help sustain a strong America.

Data Points: Immigrants’ share of labor force: 16% - Immigrants were described as 16% of the labor force but responsible for one-third of patents. Share of patents filed by immigrants: about one-third - Used to illustrate immigrants’ outsized role in innovation. PhD STEM workers who are immigrants: one-third - Griswold highlighted immigrant representation in STEM PhD roles. Fortune 500 firms with immigrant founders/co-founders: 40% - Cited as evidence of immigrant entrepreneurship. Unicorns with immigrant founders/co-founders: about half - Used to show immigrant role in high-growth startups. U.S. fertility rate: 1.8 births per woman - Presented as below replacement level and part of the demographic concern. Replacement fertility: 2.1 births per woman - Noted as the threshold needed to keep population stable long term. Native-born Americans with native-born parents expected change: -8 million over 20 years - Pew estimate used to show demographic shrinkage. U.S. labor-force growth in the 1990s: over 1% - Contrasted with the current slower pace. Current U.S. labor-force growth: about 0.5% - Used to underscore demographic slowdown. Net immigration rate today: 3.3 per 1,000 population - Griswold compared this with historical peaks to argue current immigration is not unusually high. Net immigration rate during Great Atlantic migration: 8-10 per 1,000 population - Historic benchmark showing past immigration was much higher relative to population. Foreign-born share of U.S. population: 13.5% - Current stock of immigrants in the United States. Foreign-born population count: about 43 million - Approximate number of foreign-born residents in the U.S. First and second generation share: about 1 in 4 Americans - Includes foreign-born people and those with at least one immigrant parent. Peak foreign-born share in U.S. history: about 15% - Used to show the current level is near but not above historical experience. Canada foreign-born share: 20% - International comparison to show higher immigrant shares can coexist with advanced economies. Australia foreign-born share: 28% - Another comparison indicating larger immigrant inflows are feasible. Net pay-in for immigrant with BA arriving at 25: +$500,000 lifetime - National Academy of Sciences estimate of fiscal contribution. Net pay-in for immigrant with advanced degree arriving at 25: almost +$1,000,000 lifetime - Shows higher-skilled immigrants are strong fiscal contributors. Fiscal burden for low-skilled immigrant without high school diploma: about -$100,000 - Used as a limited exception, with the caveat that temporary migration could mitigate costs. Wage premium for high school diploma vs. no diploma: 37% more - Cited when advising low-skilled Americans to stay in school. Wage effect on Americans without a high school diploma: 1% to 2% lower - The main group cited as experiencing modest negative effects from low-skilled immigration. Labor-force participation of Latin American immigrants: about 67% - Used to show strong work attachment among immigrant groups. Native-born male labor-force participation comparison: 77% or higher - Compared against Latin American immigrants’ participation in the discussion. Legal immigration volume: a little over 1 million per year - Current green-card level described as high by U.S. historical standards. Proposed increase in legal immigration: +325,000 to about 1.4 million annually - Griswold’s policy recommendation. Employment-based immigration share: about 14% - Current system heavily favors family-based immigration instead of skills-based entry. Family-based immigration share: about two-thirds - Used to contrast U.S. policy with Canada and Australia. Low-skilled visa lottery allocation: 50,000 visas per year - Program Griswold suggested reallocating toward high-skilled workers.

Pivotal Quotes: "Immigrants make all of us more productive because, and here's a key thing I've learned about immigration: immigrants tend to not compete head-to-head with the vast majority of Americans. They complement American workers." — Dan Griswold: Explaining why immigration generally raises productivity and wages for most Americans. "We want the risk-loving entrepreneurial types to be here in the first place for dynamism, for job growth." — David Beckworth: Beckworth’s framing of immigrants as self-selected risk-takers and entrepreneurs. "If you want to make America great again, let in more immigrants." — Dan Griswold: Summing up the argument that immigration supports economic strength and national vitality.

Implications: The episode frames immigration as a growth strategy, not just a social issue. For policymakers, it supports expanding legal, skills-based immigration; for listeners, it suggests immigrants are net contributors to jobs, innovation, and demographic health.