Episode Summary
Executive Summary: David Beckworth and Alex Nowrasteh discuss U.S. immigration and population decline, arguing that low fertility and restrictive legal immigration make future growth depend heavily on immigration. Nowrasteh defends higher immigration on economic, fiscal, and assimilation grounds, rejecting claims that immigrants depress wages, strain welfare, raise crime, or fail to integrate.
Main Topics: U.S. population slowdown and fertility decline (Priority: 5/5): The conversation opens with a diagnosis of historically weak population growth, a falling child population, and fertility well below replacement, making future growth increasingly reliant on immigration. Immigration trends and policy restrictions (Priority: 5/5): Nowrasteh argues that both legal and illegal immigration have been constrained by policy, with legal channels especially restrictive and the legal system difficult to navigate. Why pronatalist policies are limited (Priority: 4/5): They discuss whether birth subsidies or family-policy interventions can reverse low fertility; Nowrasteh is skeptical, citing high opportunity costs of childrearing and limited effectiveness of subsidies. How the U.S. immigration system works (Priority: 5/5): The transcript explains the distinction between green cards, temporary visas, family-based admissions, and employer-sponsored selection, emphasizing the system's complexity and quotas. Critique of anti-immigration ideology (Priority: 4/5): Nowrasteh distinguishes between nationalist concerns about cohesion and population-control ideology behind some think tanks and restrictionist groups. Debunking common objections to immigration (Priority: 5/5): He addresses the most common anti-immigration claims: job loss, welfare abuse, poor assimilation, and higher crime, arguing the evidence largely contradicts these fears.
Key Arguments: U.S. population growth is at a historic low, and the under-18 population has already declined, so immigration will account for most future growth. Immigration is economically beneficial because immigrants and native-born workers are often complements, not perfect substitutes; this can raise productivity and wages. The U.S. legal immigration system is unusually restrictive and complex, forcing many would-be legal entrants into irregular channels. Family-based immigration is not inherently inferior because many family-sponsored entrants are also workers, and employers are often better at selecting productive migrants than governments. Pronatalist policies are expensive and only weakly effective because the opportunity costs of childrearing, especially for women, have risen sharply. Immigrants generally pay more in taxes than they receive in benefits, and illegal immigrants have very limited access to welfare programs. Assimilation is strong by the second or third generation, including language, income, volunteering, and voting behavior. Immigrant crime rates, including for illegal immigrants in Texas data, are lower than those of native-born Americans. Some restrictionist organizations are motivated by a desire to reduce population, not merely by concerns about national cohesion or economic costs.
Data Points: U.S. population growth over last decade: 7.4% - Lowest decade-long growth in American history, according to the guest. U.S. population under age 18: -1.4% - The child population declined over the last decade. U.S. total fertility rate: 1.6-1.7 - Current fertility rate is well below replacement level. Replacement fertility rate: 2.1 - Approximate level needed to stabilize population absent immigration. Potential missing immigrants since 2015 trends broke: 2.5 to 5 million - Estimate of how many more immigrants would be in the U.S. if pre-2015 trends had continued. Illegal immigrant population peak: About 12 million - Peak around 2007-2008 before declining. Illegal immigrant population later level: About 10 to 11 million - Estimated level around 2016 and for several years after. U.S. job openings: 10 to 11 million - Nowrasteh links strong illegal inflows to labor demand. Green cards issued per month pre-COVID: About 40,000 - Average monthly issuance before the pandemic. Green cards issued in May 2020: 697 - Illustrates the severity of the COVID-era collapse in legal immigration. Current green card issuance: Mid-30,000s per month - Still below pre-COVID levels. Illegal immigrants' access to welfare: Ineligible for welfare at entry - He says illegal immigrants are legally barred from welfare and legal immigrants are barred for five years. Immigrant welfare use vs native-born: 28% less - Per-capita welfare consumption by immigrants compared with native-born Americans. Emergency Medicaid/illegal immigrant costs: $2 to $4 billion per year - Estimated government cost for emergency care used by illegal immigrants. Total Medicaid spending: About $620 billion - Used to show emergency Medicaid is a tiny share of total spending. Immigrants' entrepreneurship: Twice as entrepreneurial - Nowrasteh says immigrants are twice as likely to start a business as native-born Americans. U.S. legal immigration share of population: About 0.3% annually - He compares this unfavorably with peer countries. Australia immigration share: About 1% annually - Comparison country with much higher inflows. Canada immigration share: About 1% annually - Comparison country with much higher inflows. Switzerland immigration share: About 1.6% annually - Comparison country with much higher inflows. H-1B annual cap: 85,000 - Temporary skilled visa cap set by Congress. Skilled green cards set aside: 140,000 per year - Official allocation, but more than half go to family members. Actual skilled workers via green card system: About 65,000 per year - Approximate number after accounting for family members. Texas illegal immigrant conviction rate vs natives: About half - Illegal immigrant conviction rates are stated to be roughly half those of native-born Americans. Trump vote share among Hispanics in 2020: About 38-39% - Used as evidence that assimilation and political integration continue.
Pivotal Quotes: "immigration liberalization will do and has done tremendous work in lifting tens of millions, hundreds of millions of people out of poverty over the centuries" — Alex Nowrasteh: His broad case for immigration as a global poverty-reducing force. "all immigration is illegal except that which the government specifically says is legal" — Alex Nowrasteh: Explaining how restrictive the U.S. legal immigration system is compared with other areas of law. "you can't build our civilization with other people's babies" — Steve King (referenced by Alex Nowrasteh): Example of nationalist opposition to immigration that Nowrasteh criticizes as ethnocentric.
Implications: The episode argues that aging, low fertility, and restrictive visa policy make immigration central to U.S. growth. For policymakers, the message is to expand legal pathways and judge immigrants by economic contribution rather than myths about wages, welfare, crime, or assimilation.
About Macro Musings
Hosted by David Beckworth of the Mercatus Center, Macro Musings pulls back the curtain on the important macroeconomic issues of the past, present, and future.