142: ‘They Sherlocked F.lux’ With Dan Frommer

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The conversation centers on CES as an overwhelming but uniquely valuable trade show, with Dan Frommer describing the chaos, logistics, hidden gems, and the way it reveals trends in drones, wearables, camera tech, and self-driving cars. The discussion broadens into Apple Watch, Apple’s growth limits, the declining relevance of apps on some devices, and a defense of the Sean Penn/El Chapo Rolling Stone piece as disclosed, imperfect, but legitimate journalism.

Main Topics: CES as chaos, networking, and discovery (Priority: 5/5): Frommer explains why CES is exhausting yet compelling: huge crowds, bad infrastructure, endless walking, unexpected encounters, and the chance to see obscure products and people you would never meet elsewhere. Logistics and survival at CES (Priority: 5/5): The speakers discuss hotel placement, show-floor geography, press scheduling, email overload, hydration, and why planning ahead matters if you want to get meaningful value from the event. Knockoffs, startups, and the exhibitor ecosystem (Priority: 4/5): The transcript highlights the prevalence of Shenzhen-based exhibitors, knockoff products, U.S. Marshals raiding a hoverboard knockoff booth, and the contrast between giant booths and tiny startup booths. Wearables, Apple Watch, and the limits of apps (Priority: 5/5): They debate whether the Apple Watch should have launched with apps, how its real value lies in ambient functions like health, time, and Apple Pay, and why many apps feel slower than just using the iPhone. Apple’s growth, market expectations, and product cycles (Priority: 4/5): The discussion turns to concerns about iPhone growth, the limits of Apple’s market expansion, the significance of watches and iPads as smaller businesses, and how analyst panic often overstates the situation. Journalism, disclosure, and the Sean Penn/El Chapo article (Priority: 4/5): They analyze whether the Rolling Stone piece is ethically acceptable given its editorial disclosure, using it as a case study in the changing norms of journalism and self-publishing. The future of connected devices: cars, TVs, and Tizen (Priority: 4/5): The speakers argue that many future devices may not need third-party apps at all, citing watches, TVs, fridges, and self-driving cars as examples where controlled OS platforms matter more than app ecosystems.

Key Arguments: CES is valuable precisely because it is chaotic; the show compresses a huge industry into one city, creating unusual meetings and product discoveries. The real pain of CES is less the crowd than the broken infrastructure: long monorail waits, shuttle traffic, bad Wi-Fi, and exhausting distances between venues. Small booths often provide better discoveries than giant brand booths because they let you speak directly with founders and see genuinely new ideas. The Apple Watch’s best features are ambient and utility-based rather than app-centric; slow apps damage the product more than helping it. Apple Watch sport may be the most functional version of the product line, because the expensive stainless-steel tier does not meaningfully improve usefulness. Apple is nearing the point where iPhone growth naturally slows because it has already reached most people who can afford one. The Sean Penn/El Chapo story is ethically defensible because the publication clearly disclosed the pre-approval arrangement up front. Traditional journalism rules are useful but not sacred; disclosure matters more than rigid purity tests. Many future devices will not need app ecosystems in the way smartphones do; a tightly controlled OS can be enough for watches, cars, and appliances. Self-driving cars and similar products are about engineering, safety, and regulation—not app platforms. Current analyst panic around Apple is exaggerated relative to the company’s actual financial strength and product ecosystem.

Data Points: CES attendance: 200,000 people - Used to describe the overwhelming scale of CES and why the city feels packed with tech workers and adjacent industries. Walking distance at CES: 14 miles - Frommer’s busiest day on the CES show floor, showing the event’s physical demands. Daily steps at CES: 27,000 steps - Another measure of how much walking the conference required. Number of Quartz attendees: 4 people - Two from ad sales, Dan Frommer, and reporter Mike Murphy attended CES for Quartz. Shenzhen exhibitors: 500+ companies - Scraped exhibitor data showed more than 500 companies with “Shenzhen” in the title. Apple Watch estimate: around 5 million units - Frommer’s rough estimate of Apple Watch sales after a prior quarter. Apple Watch sales guess: 5–10 million in the Christmas quarter - His speculative estimate for holiday-quarter Apple Watch sales. WEalthfront no-fee threshold: $15,000 - For listeners using the promo link, the first $15,000 is fee-free. Squarespace discount: 10% off - Offer code GRUBER gives 10% off the first purchase. Battery case opinion metric: $400 sport model vs. more expensive steel model - Used to argue the sport version of Apple Watch may be the best value and most functional. CES hotel pricing example: $50 then $350 per night - Illustrates how hotel rates rise dramatically during CES. iPad market figure: 5.7 million - Quarterly iPad sales figure referenced as a recent all-time record. Amazon holiday shopping share: 51% - Used as an example of a psychologically significant market-share threshold.

Pivotal Quotes: "You realize how insignificant you are in the world when you're at CES." — Dan Frommer: Describing the scale and humbling experience of walking the show floor. "The world is a better place that this article exists than if it didn't." — Dan Frommer: Defending the Sean Penn/El Chapo Rolling Stone piece despite the pre-approval arrangement. "I think that slow apps is way worse than no apps." — Dan Frommer: Arguing that the first Apple Watch should not have launched as an app platform.

Implications: CES remains a crucial trend-spotting venue, but its real value depends on selective coverage and endurance. Meanwhile, Apple Watch, self-driving cars, and other smart devices may succeed less through apps and more through tightly integrated hardware, software, and utility.