#437 — Two Years Since 10/7

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Sam Harris and Dan Senor discuss rising antisemitism since October 7, 2023, the consequences of rhetoric portraying Israel as genocidal, and the vulnerabilities of open societies in Europe. They argue that leaders’ efforts to appease political constituencies by distancing themselves from Israel may fail to curb hostility. Harris emphasizes distinguishing criticism of religious ideas from prejudice against people, while both describe political and social barriers to addressing Islamist extremism. The released conversation ends mid-discussion.

Main Topics: Antisemitism after October 7: Harris says the scale and persistence of antisemitism have continued to surprise him. Senor connects hostile rhetoric about Israel to risks for Jews in Western countries, citing the Manchester attack and reported celebrations after it. Open societies and Islamist extremism: Harris frames jihadist violence as a wider challenge to open societies, citing attacks in Manchester and Paris. He criticizes what he sees as European reluctance to confront religious extremism and integration failures. Political responses and perceived appeasement: Senor argues that European leaders initially expressed strong support for Israel but later moderated their positions, including on arms and Palestinian statehood, partly to avoid alienating domestic constituencies. He contends this strategy may not reduce tensions. Criticism of religion versus prejudice: Harris argues that criticism of Islam as a set of ideas should not automatically be treated as bigotry toward Muslims. He distinguishes religious belief and political ideology from ethnicity, while acknowledging that the debate is constrained by accusations of racism and xenophobia. Political polarization and the far right: Harris warns that if centrist and liberal parties do not address public concerns about immigration and extremism, far-right movements may capitalize on them. The speakers describe reputational risks and guilt-by-association pressures that complicate discussion. Different approaches to Jewish identity: Harris says he approaches these issues from a broadly universalist perspective and a concern for open society, while Senor is more comfortable making an explicit argument in defense of Jewish identity.

Key Arguments: Harris says antisemitism has worsened since October 7 and argues that attacks on Jews should be understood alongside broader jihadist violence, not only as a reaction to events in Israel. Senor argues that repeatedly describing Israel as genocidal can foster the view that Jews who support Israel are complicit, creating a dangerous rationale for targeting them. Harris contends that leaders’ efforts to appease or placate hostile constituencies by criticizing Israel may not moderate those constituencies and may instead normalize anti-Israel rhetoric. Harris argues that debate about religious doctrines and their political consequences should be distinguished from discrimination against people based on ethnicity or other inherent characteristics. Harris warns that failure by mainstream parties to address concerns about extremism and integration could benefit far-right politicians; he presents this as a political risk, not a desired outcome. The speakers describe a discourse trap: critics of Islam may be labeled bigoted, while association with far-right figures can damage credibility, making it harder to discuss extremism in mainstream settings.

Data Points: Time since October 7, 2023: Two years - The speakers frame the discussion around the second anniversary and compare developments in the first and second years after the attack. Muslim share of France's population: About 8% - Harris corrects Senor's initial estimate while discussing the size of the Muslim population in France. Muslim share of the UK's population: About 6% - Harris cites this estimate while arguing that a relatively small population share can exert significant political pressure. Muslim population in France: More than 7.5 million - Senor gives this approximate figure before Harris gives the 8% estimate; the transcript presents both figures. Attendance at a Washington solidarity gathering: More than 300,000 - Senor compares a French Jewish-community solidarity event with a November 2023 gathering on the National Mall. Deaths in the Manchester Arena bombing: 22 - Harris cites the Ariana Grande concert attack as an example of jihadist violence unrelated to Israel or Jews. Coalition against ISIS: More than 50 nations - Senor says Macron proposed an international response to Hamas modeled on the coalition that confronted ISIS. Jewish population worldwide: About 15 million - Harris uses this estimate while contrasting Judaism's non-missionary character and small population with religions that actively seek converts.

Pivotal Quotes: "It's just, it seems to be getting worse, not better." — Sam Harris: Harris summarizes his assessment of antisemitism in the year following the first anniversary of October 7. "if liberals won't enforce borders, fascists will." — Sam Harris, quoting David Frum: Harris invokes this line to warn that mainstream parties’ failure to address public concerns could empower the far right. "The color of a person's skin is completely irrelevant for this conversation." — Sam Harris: Harris distinguishes his criticism of religious and political ideas from claims about race or ethnicity.

Implications: The speakers argue that unchecked antisemitic rhetoric and avoidance of difficult debates may endanger Jewish communities and weaken open societies. Their account also highlights how political polarization and competing accusations of bigotry can obstruct discussion and create openings for extremists.