564. How to Succeed at Failing, Part 4: Extreme Resiliency

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: This episode explores failure as a source of learning and innovation across science, business, and education. It opens with tuberculosis research showing that some bacterial “mistakes” can be adaptive, then moves to the premortem method, startup strategy, the Museum of Failure, and a college course that reframes failure as normal and useful. The central tension: failure can be either paralyzing or generative, depending on how systems handle it.

Main Topics: Tuberculosis and adaptive mistranslation: Babak Javed’s TB research challenges the assumption that protein-making errors are always harmful. He found that moderate mistranslation can help bacteria innovate and survive, though too much error becomes lethal. The premortem as a decision-making tool: Gary Klein explains how imagining a project has already failed helps teams surface risks, especially in complex ‘wicked problems’ where uncertainty and coordination problems hide dangers. Failure, candor, and organizational culture: The episode argues that many organizations suppress useful dissent. Premortems and candid meetings can give junior people space to speak and improve outcomes. Startup risk and the limits of pessimism: Alto CEO Will Coleman rejects premortems, arguing startups already expect failure and should stay focused on building momentum and reaching the next milestone. The Museum of Failure and public learning: Samuel West’s traveling museum turns failed products into exhibits, showing that failures can be entertaining while also teaching people to learn from unsuccessful innovation. Failure 101 in higher education: Teresa McPhail teaches engineering students to treat failure as a normal part of life and a topic worth studying directly, partly in response to anxiety and suicide on campuses. Institutionalizing failure knowledge: Amy Edmondson and Roy Shalem suggest publishing null results and even creating a market for R&D failures so firms and researchers can stop repeating mistakes.

Key Arguments: TB remains the world’s deadliest infectious disease and receives too little funding relative to its impact. In TB bacteria, a moderate amount of protein-synthesis error can be adaptive rather than purely destructive. The premortem works because certainty of failure removes social pressure and unlocks honest problem-spotting. Junior employees often withhold concerns in ordinary meetings, but premortems can democratize insight. Many organizations claim to want candid feedback, but they actually prefer harmony, which suppresses innovation. Startups may find premortems paralyzing because they already assume a high probability of failure and need to focus on execution. Failure becomes more useful when it is discussed openly, studied systematically, and shared rather than hidden. Students benefit from learning that failure is subjective, socially constructed, and not a moral verdict on their worth. Publishing null results and monetizing R&D failures could reduce duplicated effort and speed discovery.

Data Points: TB annual deaths: around 1.5 million people each year - Described as the world’s deadliest infectious disease and especially severe in the developing world TB as top infectious killer: last 20–30 years - TB has been the number one infectious disease killer globally for decades COVID-19 dominance: a few years - Mentioned as the biggest infectious killer only temporarily Streptomycin discovery: 1943 - First drug found to successfully fight TB Premortem time frame: six months to a year - Gary Klein’s exercise asks teams to imagine failure in that future window Alto markets: 6 - Los Angeles, San Francisco, Dallas, Houston, Miami, and Washington, D.C. Alto revenue loss during COVID: 95% in a day - Will Coleman described the company’s pandemic shock Alto products that succeeded: maybe a 10th of them - Coleman said only a minority of built products worked Revenue share from successful COVID-era products: 20–30% - The products that survived became a substantial share of revenue Museum of Failure exhibits: more than 150 - The traveling museum’s collection of failed innovations Museum of Failure launch year: 2017 - Samuel West’s pop-up museum began traveling that year Failure 101 enrollments: about 100 students over four classes - McPhail’s course outcomes across four iterations Failure 101 failing grades: 1 student - Only one student received an F for stopping reflections entirely Suicide context on campus: several suicides in 2017–2018 - McPhail cites this as part of why she created Failure 101 Startup failure rate mentioned: 99% - Coleman states startups fail every day, probably 99% of them

Pivotal Quotes: "One of the mechanisms of injustice in our world." — Babak Javed: Explaining why he was drawn to tuberculosis research "Imagine that I'm looking at a crystal ball... this project has failed. It's failed in a big way." — Gary Klein: Defining the premortem exercise for surfacing risks before launch "The money-making machine hasn't been built yet." — Will Coleman: Explaining why Alto prefers execution over dwelling on failure

Implications: The episode suggests failure should be managed, not feared: use premortems in complex projects, share negative results, and teach failure explicitly. But context matters—what improves one organization may hinder another, especially startups.