620. Why Don’t Running Backs Get Paid Anymore?

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: This Freakonomics episode examines why NFL running backs have fallen from stars and top earners to lower-paid, more replaceable players. Through economists, analysts, agents, and former players, it argues the shift is driven by analytics showing passing is more efficient, rule changes favoring offense, the 2011 CBA’s rookie wage scale and delayed second contracts, and the physical toll of the position. A modest run-game resurgence may exist, but a full running-back renaissance looks unlikely.

Main Topics: The decline of the running back (Priority: 5/5): The episode frames the central puzzle: running backs were once marquee players and among the league's highest-paid, but their salaries and perceived value have steadily dropped. Analytics and the rise of passing (Priority: 5/5): Brian Burke and Roland Fryer explain that expected points models and game theory showed passing is more efficient than running, helping reshape team strategy and player valuation. Rule changes and the NFL as a business (Priority: 4/5): The league altered rules over decades to protect quarterbacks and increase scoring, which made passing more attractive to teams and more appealing to fans and advertisers. The 2011 CBA and rookie control (Priority: 5/5): The collective bargaining agreement created rookie wage scales and five-year team control, meaning running backs often reach free agency after their prime years or after heavy wear. Injury, perishability, and committee backfields (Priority: 4/5): Agents and former players stress that running backs absorb constant punishment and have short careers, so teams increasingly use cheaper running-back-by-committee approaches. Can great backs still matter? (Priority: 4/5): Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs are cited as elite exceptions, but guests argue they mostly prove the broader rule that offensive lines and passing still matter more. Future of the position (Priority: 3/5): Some guests see a cyclical possibility of renewed appreciation for running backs, especially versatile ones, but most say market forces are unlikely to restore the old status quo.

Key Arguments: Passing became more valuable than running because analytics showed it generates more expected points and better aligns with winning strategy. The NFL’s rule changes over time systematically increased the value of passing and quarterback play. The 2011 CBA hurt running backs specifically by delaying their first major second contract until around age 27, when many are already declining. Running backs are uniquely vulnerable to injury and wear because they are hit repeatedly, including in pass protection. Teams can often replace a star running back with a cheaper committee approach plus strong offensive line play, reducing the marginal value of any one back. Running backs’ own market leverage is limited because many other good runners are available through the draft or free agency. A few elite backs may still swing games, but they are exceptions rather than evidence of a broad reversal. Fans and younger audiences prefer higher-scoring, pass-heavy football, reinforcing league incentives to prioritize the passing game.

Data Points: Average starting quarterback salary: just over $30 million - This season, used to illustrate quarterback premium over running backs. Average starting running back salary: $6 million - This season, showing the gap between quarterbacks and running backs. Running backs draft trend: 12 running backs in the first two rounds in 1990; 1 this year - Shows reduced draft investment in the position. Run-play rate: 43.4% - Share of scrimmage plays that were runs this year. Run-play rate low point: 40.6% - 2016 marked a 20-year low in run-play frequency. NFL revenue: about $20 billion a year - Current scale of the league as a business. Projected NFL revenue goal: $25 billion - Agent Jeffrey Whitney cited this as the league's goal. Running back and fullback salary growth: up around 11% over two decades - Compared with much larger increases for other offensive positions. Salary growth for other offensive positions: at least 90% over two decades - Shows running backs lagging behind broader offensive pay growth. Average career length for NFL running backs: around 2.5 years today - Compared with about 5.5 years two decades ago. Average career length for NFL running backs in the past: around 5.5 years - Pre-2011-era reference point. Saquon Barkley deal with Eagles: three years, about $12 million per year - Contrasted with Daniel Jones's quarterback contract. Daniel Jones deal: four years, averaging $40 million per year - Used as an example of quarterback premium. Patrick Mahomes contract: $45 million a year - Compared with Chiefs running backs' salaries. Travis Kelce contract: $17 million a year - Compared with Chiefs running backs' salaries. Typical Chiefs running back salary: between $1 million and $3 million a year - Illustrates interchangeability of backs on a championship roster. Top rushing on winning Super Bowl team: 70 yards average over past 20 Super Bowls - Used to argue a star running back is not essential for a title. Saquon Barkley playoff rushing performance: 118 yards and 3 touchdowns - In the NFC Championship win over Washington. Expected Saquon Barkley Super Bowl rushing yards: 115 yards - Betting markets projected a big game.

Pivotal Quotes: "The running back is the most violent position in the most violent sport on the planet." — Jeffrey Whitney: On why running backs are especially exposed to injury and short careers. "Once I built that model, it was very, very clear at that moment that passing was far superior to running." — Brian Burke: Explaining how expected points analytics changed football strategy. "The economist in me likes the results... but the kid in me hopes for a running back renaissance." — Roland Fryer: Summing up the tension between data-driven valuation and personal nostalgia.

Implications: For teams, value comes from efficiency, not nostalgia: invest in quarterbacks, passing, and offensive lines. For running backs, versatility and timing matter, but the market likely won’t reverse unless strategy or rules change again.