Why Don’t Running Backs Get Paid Anymore? (Update)

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: This Freakonomics episode examines why NFL running backs have lost value, prestige, and pay relative to quarterbacks and receivers. Using economics, analytics, rule changes, and player testimony, the hosts show that passing is more efficient, the CBA shortened rookie earning windows, injuries make backs highly “perishable,” and teams increasingly replace stars with committees. A small rebound in run usage hasn’t restored the position’s old status.

Main Topics: The decline of the running back in the modern NFL (Priority: 5/5): The episode frames the central puzzle: running backs used to be among football’s biggest stars and highest-paid players, but now they rank far lower in salary and strategic importance. Analytics revolution and the value of passing (Priority: 5/5): Brian Burke and Roland Fryer explain that expected-points models revealed passing produces more value than running, shifting coaching strategy and eventually player valuation. Rule changes favoring offense and the pass (Priority: 4/5): The NFL repeatedly altered rules to make passing easier and scoring higher, which helped accelerate the pass-heavy era and reduce the relative value of running backs. The 2011 CBA and rookie wage scale (Priority: 5/5): The labor agreement gave teams five years of control over drafted players and limited early free agency, which disproportionately hurt running backs because their prime is earlier and careers are shorter. Injury, durability, and the 'perishable' running back (Priority: 5/5): Agents and former players stress the brutal physical toll of the position, which makes teams reluctant to pay long-term contracts to backs whose effectiveness can decline quickly. Committee backfields and changing team economics (Priority: 4/5): Teams can now find productive runners in the draft or free agency and often spread carries among multiple players, reducing the need for one expensive star runner. Is there a running back renaissance? (Priority: 3/5): The episode closes by asking whether recent stars like Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry indicate a rebound. The answer is cautious: a slight uptick in rushing has not reversed the long-term market trend.

Key Arguments: Running backs have declined in value because the expected value of passing plays is higher than that of rushing plays. The analytics movement, especially expected points models, showed teams were running too often and should pass more. NFL rule changes over decades made passing easier and scoring more likely, reinforcing a pass-first strategy. The 2011 CBA delayed second contracts until many running backs are already near decline, lowering their leverage and pay. Running backs face uniquely severe injury risk and shorter careers, making them less attractive for long-term investment. Teams can often replace a star running back more cheaply than they can replace a star quarterback, so salary naturally shifts upward to QBs. Running game success depends heavily on offensive line and scheme, meaning the back is only one part of a larger system. A few elite backs still matter, but they are exceptions and usually need strong lines and complementary offenses to maximize impact.

Data Points: Average salary of starting quarterbacks: just over $30 million - This season, cited as the benchmark for top QB compensation Average salary of starting running backs: $7 million - This season, showing the pay gap versus quarterbacks Running backs' ranking by average salary among positions: 15th - This year, down from second about 30 years ago Quarterbacks' ranking by average salary among positions (30 years ago): 1st - Running backs ranked second at that time 2016 run-play rate: 40.6% - A 20-year low for run plays from scrimmage Last year run-play rate: 43.4% - A modest recovery in rushing usage This year run-play rate: 43.7% - Continued slight increase in rushing usage NFL revenue: about $20 billion per year - Used to show the league’s scale and business incentives Projected NFL revenue: $25 billion to $50 billion - Agent Jeffrey Whitney cited growth expectations and business motives League revenue share for players after 2011 CBA: 47% - Up from 42% before the agreement League revenue share before 2011 CBA: 42% - Pre-2011 players’ share Average career length for NFL running backs 20 years ago: around 5.5 years - Before the recent decline in career duration Average career length for NFL running backs today: around 2.5 years - Shows how short-lived the position has become Running backs taken in first two rounds of draft in 1990: 12 - Illustrates how highly valued the position once was Running backs taken in first two rounds of draft last year: 2 - Shows the steep decline in draft investment Saquon Barkley contract with Eagles: about $12 million per year - Less than a third of Daniel Jones’s salary Daniel Jones contract with Giants: $40 million per year - Used as a contrast in the Barkley example Le'Veon Bell’s overpaid Jets contract outcome: big money deal, then decline - Used to illustrate risk and perishability at the position Michael cashing? Sorry, not applicable: N/A - No additional verified metric

Pivotal Quotes: "Once I built that model, it was very, very clear that passing was far superior to running." — Brian Burke: Explaining the analytics breakthrough that shifted football strategy "The running back is the most violent position in the most violent sport on the planet." — Jeffrey Whitney: Describing the physical risk and short career arc of the position "The quarterback got all the credit for taking to the Super Bowl, and he did the bare minimum." — LaShawn McCoy: Arguing that running backs are undervalued relative to quarterbacks

Implications: The NFL’s economics now reward efficiency, durability, and scarcity at quarterback more than positional tradition. Unless rules, labor structures, or strategy change, running backs will remain underpaid relative to their past glory.